Q: Will Cam Newton succeed in the NFL?
A: In my opinion, probably not, at least not to the level he did at Auburn. Now before I get all negative let me first say that most high draft picks do not end up equalling their collegian success, so part of my answer is just paying attention to statistics. Here's what worries me about Cam the player. He's got a list of character issues. None of which are particularly terrible, but it's the fact they continued throughout his career. Let's face it, young people are stupid. Young men are especially stupid, and young men who are treated like kings can be staggeringly stupid. As a GM what I want to see from a player that's made mistakes is does he learn from them and stop the behavior. I was ready to give Cam somewhat of a pass until he made a comment about being an entertainer and an icon before the combine. What?! Okay, that's an arrogant thing to say, but aside from that it represents a lack of being able to take the temperature of context of the situation and adjust. Essentially it's poor judgment. You've got a big problem if your QB has poor judgement. Now some QBs can succeed despite having poor judgement (Big Ben, Brett Favre), but it's never something you want to ignore because at best poor judgement is a headache for an organization.
The assessment of Cam's character in the Pro Football Weekly article was a bit scathing and maybe influenced by unconscious racial bias, but what stood out to me was the comment that Cam was not punctual. Uh oh! Again, that's poor judgement, poor work ethic, lack of discipline, and not being able to properly diagnose the situation. As a GM this is the stuff I don't want to see. The stuff that happened in college is in the past and it can be explained away easy enough, but Cam still doesn't seem to get it. As a prospect you've got to do everything you can to look as good as possible and he's making mistakes that should be easily avoidable.
The assessment of Cam's character in the Pro Football Weekly article was a bit scathing and maybe influenced by unconscious racial bias, but what stood out to me was the comment that Cam was not punctual. Uh oh! Again, that's poor judgement, poor work ethic, lack of discipline, and not being able to properly diagnose the situation. As a GM this is the stuff I don't want to see. The stuff that happened in college is in the past and it can be explained away easy enough, but Cam still doesn't seem to get it. As a prospect you've got to do everything you can to look as good as possible and he's making mistakes that should be easily avoidable.
As far as his physical tools I'd say he's not elite, but he is talented. He throws the ball well enough, but he's very raw. If you watch the combine film he's late on a lot of throws and needs to work on his footwork, but most incoming QBs do. He can be very good, but the question is how disciplined is he? How's his judgement? How's his leadership? And possibly most importantly how mentally tough is he?
Q: Should Carolina draft Cam number 1?
A: Absolutely NOT! In my opinion there is only one team picking in the top 10 that would be a good fit for Newton and that's Arizona at No. 5. As a matter of fact I think there are only three teams where Cam gets drafted an manages to stay in the league for more than 4 years (Pats, Colts, Cards). The reason for this is because I think Cam needs to go to a team where he's NOT the star on offense. Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald is the only offensive player on a team picking early that could legitimately challenge Cam's authority and command humility and respect. San Fran's Jim Harbaugh fits that mold too, though he's not a player, but I don't think Jim and Cam would get along let alone the fact that I don't think Cam fits Jim's offense. I just don't see in Cam what I saw in Sam Bradford or Donavon McNabb; that self awareness, maturity, and leadership. That's what you need when you take over a bad team at QB and nothing that Cam has done since the national championship game has showed me that he's ready to be "The Guy".
Q: Who the hell is Blaine Gabbert and where did he come from?
A: I've been asking myself that same question. There's no denying the guy has talent and physically looks like an NFL QB, but I wonder if Andrew Luck were in this draft would we even be talking about Gabbert going in the first round. Probably, but allow me to pump the brakes a bit on the kid from Mizzou. His stats don't wow you, though he did through 71% against Oklahoma this past year. He only threw 9 picks, but also only through 16tds. He was awful against Nebraska and even worse against Texas Tech. Texas Tech isn't exactly an elite defensive team. All in all I'd say Gabbert is intriguing, but I think he gets picked higher than he should because some team is lamenting the fact that Luck went back to school.
Q: Julio Jones or A.J. Green?
A: Green, but Jones is very intriguing. In case you hadn't heard Jones ran a faster 40 time (4.38 vs. Green's 4.50)...with a cracked foot. The kid is ultra tough, big, strong, and fast. Turn on the tape though and Green jumps off the screen and smacks you in the face and screams "Pick me stupid!" The guy, Green, simply could not be covered and made lesser secondaries look silly. You don't see nearly the separation with Green that you do with Jones. The thing that worries me a bit with Green is his build, he looks, well, skinny. So does Randy Moss and DeSean Jackson, so that's not too big a concern, but I would want to see Green gain a bit more weight, especially given the way he likes to play. In the end I think these receivers will be used in slightly different ways with Green being a more all around threat while Jones will be more of a move-the-chains type of receiver. One thing's for sure, I'd be happy to have either one on my team.
Q: Darius or Fairley?
A: Darius and this one's not as close as Jones vs. Green. As a GM, I want my d-lineman to have a high motor, be thick in the legs and hips, and to have dominated for more than one year. Fairley is none of those things and Darius is. Now, as is often the case, Fairley's ceiling is higher than Darius', but all too often teams draft based on potential and ignore the fact that the player doesn't have what it takes to reach that potential (i.e. Vernon Gholston). Also, you've got to largely ignore Fairley's dominance in the national championship game because none of those Oregon lineman will be playing on Sundays. Now Fairley did dominate against Alabama, but mostly in the second half. Uh oh! Turn on the combine and pro day footage and the first thing that stands out to me is how small Fairley is in the waist, hips, and legs. Less than ideal. I will say however, that I've not seen a prospect at this position with a quicker first step than Fairley and when he's on he's almost unblockable.
Darius is a different player in my mind. He's relentless, mean, solid, and he's been a force in the SEC since his sophomore year. Turn on the 2009 national championship game, or the SEC championship game and you'll see a 20 year old wrecking ball. Darius is a plug-and-play potential all pro d-tackle from day one. Picking players at this position is especially difficult and that's why I want the more NFL ready athlete. With Darius if you miss he's still probably a solid contributor to your team. If you miss on Fairley he could end up being a free agent you payed $25million for.
Darius is a different player in my mind. He's relentless, mean, solid, and he's been a force in the SEC since his sophomore year. Turn on the 2009 national championship game, or the SEC championship game and you'll see a 20 year old wrecking ball. Darius is a plug-and-play potential all pro d-tackle from day one. Picking players at this position is especially difficult and that's why I want the more NFL ready athlete. With Darius if you miss he's still probably a solid contributor to your team. If you miss on Fairley he could end up being a free agent you payed $25million for.
Q: Who will be this year's biggest 1st round steel?
A: Who are the Steelers/Ravens/Pats/Colts/Packers drafting? Seriously. I think that's the better way of looking at this question because these teams, more so than other teams get the most out of the first round. Funny that they always pick in the later half. Okay, okay, that's not what you (I) asked, but I think that point should be made.
The first player that comes to mind is Anthony Castonzo, OT from Boston College. I think this guys is a sure fire RT with the potential to move to the left side and I think he's not as talked about as he should be. The guy started all four years at BC and is as sound a prospect as you can get. I also think he's got a little bit of a chip on his shoulder because Tyron Smith and the kid from Colorado are more talked about than him. I like my o-line chippy.
Q: Who will be this year's biggest 1st round bust?
A: Ryan Mallett, and it's not even close. Whoever takes this guy in the first or second round (or at all if you ask me) is making a HUGE mistake. Let's leave the off the field stuff...er...um...off the field for now and talk about him between the hashes. The first thing I notice with Mallett is body shape, it's not what you want a QB to look like. He'd probably kick my ass if we were to fight, but I'd rather fight him than any other 1st round prospect. He's got the body type of 50 year old former cross country running. He's small across the chest, has noodle-sized arms and gets wider from his shoulders to his waste. Aside from the fact that he looks like he would die if Mario Williams or Julius Peppers hit him, it shows that he really hasn't worked on his strength or conditioning. He's really the worst looking QB prospect I've ever seen from a physique standpoint.
The guy has a hand cannon for an arm, but his decision making is very subpar. Unfortunately, this seems to be a pattern with strong arm QBs as they think the velocity with which they can through the ball means they can get away with more risky throws. Mallett's style of play is awfully similar to Jay Cutler's, throw first, read defense later. The interception he through in the Sugar Bowl was horrendous.
Now let's talk about the off the field stuff, and let's start with the combine. As with Cam, or any prospect, I'm not too worried about what you did in college (unless you abuse drugs/alcohol like many people have reported Mallett doing) I'm concerned with how you handle the pressure of interviews and whether or not you fall into similar self-destructive patterns. Mallett gets an F+ in the mental toughness and judgement column. The worst was the way he handled the podium interview, by not answering questions about his past and saying he would discuss it with teams only. That's not a terrible strategy, but if you're going to run from the dogs, be prepared to run for a while. The media hounded him and he eventually got frustrated and stopped the interview. Uh oh! Now I've also heard reports that he did the same thing in individual team interviews. Holy crap this kid is a dumpster fire waiting to happen! If you can't stand the pressure of being asked questions about your character and your reaction is to walk out you have no business being in any important position in life, let alone football. Some team is going to get stupid and take him in round one or two and be sorry they did by week 10 of the season.
Okay, I think that's all for this week, but I'll be back to talk more about the draft. My next post will be on my thoughts on the lockout and labor negotiations.
