It's that time of year again folks! The time when young men gather together to be evaluated. Where dreams and money are made and a one days worth of stats don't really mean all that much. Don't get me wrong, I love watching the combine, but for the most part this event only matters for a handful of individuals. For the most part we know who's good and who's likely to be a bust. The key to navigating the combine as a fan or a GM is to not get too high or low on a guy and if you think you've stumbled across an underrated player your job is to SHUT THE HELL UP ABOUT IT! So with all that being said I wanted to try and shed some light some of the prospects that seem to have some controversy surrounding them. Let the games begin!
Manti Te'o
Of course we have to start with this guy. In case you haven't heard, Manti is responsible for one of the most absurd stories in sports history. Google it if you're not up to speed because I want to talk about how this story might play out in this young man's future. First things first I think Te'o is overrated as a football player. If you saw the Alabama game and you watched Te'o you saw a player that was completely outmatched physically. He knew where he should be most of the time, but he simply couldn't get off blocks quick enough or tackle well enough to make plays. To his credit he may have been thinking about the impending news on his fictitious girlfriend coming to light, but that only brings me to my second point. I think the absurdity of this story limits Te'o's ability to lead in the locker room, an aspect of his game that, until this story came to light, was projected to be an asset. Before, when evaluating Te'o GMs might have thought that they were getting a talented player that could/would eventually become the defensive leader. Now, maybe not so much. The bottom line is I think a team is going to reach for Te'o thinking this whole "catfish" incident isn't that big of a deal and thinking that Te'o stats against inferior competition most of his career means more than looking like he didn't belong on the field with Alabama. Can Te'o's talent overcome his poor judgement, cover-up, and naiveté? I say no and I wouldn't draft him in the first round.
Matt Barkley
The sense I get from Barkley is he's a likable Matt Lineart. His arm isn't great, he's not particularly durable, and his personality doesn't appear to be commanding or captivating. Now, he was a starter as a freshman and did pull of a win in buckeye country that same year (I was in Columbus that year, folks were not happy), but if your most memorable moment in college comes from your freshman year then you've got problems (unless you're Johnny Football as it'll be hard to top a freshman Heisman). The thing that sticks out most to me is the fact that Barkley doesn't stand out in his career. Sure, he's an SC QB and threw the ball well and put up numbers, but aside from being "solid" he doesn't come across as being special. Maybe it's unfair to compare him to the QBs from 2012, but if you fade in comparisons to folks that are "special" then why should a team draft you as their franchise QB? Barkley is more Blaine Gabbert than Carson Palmer.
Geno Smith
I'm not sure what to make of Geno. In some ways he's similar to Barkley in that he's played a lot of football. And like Barkley I have little doubt that he can play at the NFL level, the question is do you hand your franchise over to him from day one? I say no. Now, this doesn't mean that Geno can't "Russell Wilson" a team and earn the starting job in training camp, but from what I've seen on tape I don't know that he'd be read for that from day one. This guy doesn't through INTs and put up huge numbers in his final season similar to RG3. That likely means he's got good judgement, although he had more talented receivers than RG3 had at Baylor. WVU fell apart during the second half of the season after they began to play their conference schedule. Now WVU's defense was awful, but five strait losses is worrisome when you start asking questions about leadership. A loss to Syracuse (a good team last year) in the final game of the season is even more worrisome when you're talking about fire and competitiveness. Franchise QBs don't lose the way Geno's teams lost and they certainly don't look as bad as they did in the final game of the season. Franchise QBs go out swinging with everything they have despite having a disappointing season (See RG3's last bowl game). WVU's coaching and team are probably inferior, but how is that an endorsement to hand over your franchise to someone who wasn't able to overcome it? If I were a team looking for a QB, I'd keep a set of eyes glued to Geno for the entire combine. How does he interact with other players? Does he command attention and respect or does he blend with everyone else? How does he do in interviews? How does he respond when you press him about WVU's season, particularly his performance against Syracuse? The guy can make all the throws and can put up numbers, but what type of guy is he? So far, he doesn't come across as a franchise QB.
The Honey Badger
There's so much to say about young men who have careers like this. So many complex issues from drug use, to the amateur football system, to judgment and privilege, to many many other issues. The bottom line is Mathieu appears to be a young man who lacks or has lacked proper perspective. Things can go bad in a hurry, and they did for Mathieu, but what's worrisome is that he didn't seem to be able to stop his slide despite such promising prospects. Now I'll be the first to say that I think weed should be legalized, but like alcohol and smoking, there's a time and place for such things. Most of the time is not the time for such things. When you've been busted repeatedly, it's time to stop or figure out a way to not get caught. It seems like Mathieu has the discipline of a three year old and that should worry any GM who's thinking of paying a young man hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. This young man needs help and it's going to take a special set of mentors to keep him on track. Most NFL teams don't have the infrastructure to support Mathieu, but I suppose that's okay because most teams aren't going to be interested in him. His talent is eye-popping, his size is underwhelming, his intangibles were (maybe still are) terrible. It took Pac Man many years and much mayhem to go through an offseason without getting arrested. I think Mathieu will get drafted and if gets in with the right team he'll make waves in some time.
Manti Te'o
Of course we have to start with this guy. In case you haven't heard, Manti is responsible for one of the most absurd stories in sports history. Google it if you're not up to speed because I want to talk about how this story might play out in this young man's future. First things first I think Te'o is overrated as a football player. If you saw the Alabama game and you watched Te'o you saw a player that was completely outmatched physically. He knew where he should be most of the time, but he simply couldn't get off blocks quick enough or tackle well enough to make plays. To his credit he may have been thinking about the impending news on his fictitious girlfriend coming to light, but that only brings me to my second point. I think the absurdity of this story limits Te'o's ability to lead in the locker room, an aspect of his game that, until this story came to light, was projected to be an asset. Before, when evaluating Te'o GMs might have thought that they were getting a talented player that could/would eventually become the defensive leader. Now, maybe not so much. The bottom line is I think a team is going to reach for Te'o thinking this whole "catfish" incident isn't that big of a deal and thinking that Te'o stats against inferior competition most of his career means more than looking like he didn't belong on the field with Alabama. Can Te'o's talent overcome his poor judgement, cover-up, and naiveté? I say no and I wouldn't draft him in the first round.
Matt Barkley
The sense I get from Barkley is he's a likable Matt Lineart. His arm isn't great, he's not particularly durable, and his personality doesn't appear to be commanding or captivating. Now, he was a starter as a freshman and did pull of a win in buckeye country that same year (I was in Columbus that year, folks were not happy), but if your most memorable moment in college comes from your freshman year then you've got problems (unless you're Johnny Football as it'll be hard to top a freshman Heisman). The thing that sticks out most to me is the fact that Barkley doesn't stand out in his career. Sure, he's an SC QB and threw the ball well and put up numbers, but aside from being "solid" he doesn't come across as being special. Maybe it's unfair to compare him to the QBs from 2012, but if you fade in comparisons to folks that are "special" then why should a team draft you as their franchise QB? Barkley is more Blaine Gabbert than Carson Palmer.
Geno Smith
I'm not sure what to make of Geno. In some ways he's similar to Barkley in that he's played a lot of football. And like Barkley I have little doubt that he can play at the NFL level, the question is do you hand your franchise over to him from day one? I say no. Now, this doesn't mean that Geno can't "Russell Wilson" a team and earn the starting job in training camp, but from what I've seen on tape I don't know that he'd be read for that from day one. This guy doesn't through INTs and put up huge numbers in his final season similar to RG3. That likely means he's got good judgement, although he had more talented receivers than RG3 had at Baylor. WVU fell apart during the second half of the season after they began to play their conference schedule. Now WVU's defense was awful, but five strait losses is worrisome when you start asking questions about leadership. A loss to Syracuse (a good team last year) in the final game of the season is even more worrisome when you're talking about fire and competitiveness. Franchise QBs don't lose the way Geno's teams lost and they certainly don't look as bad as they did in the final game of the season. Franchise QBs go out swinging with everything they have despite having a disappointing season (See RG3's last bowl game). WVU's coaching and team are probably inferior, but how is that an endorsement to hand over your franchise to someone who wasn't able to overcome it? If I were a team looking for a QB, I'd keep a set of eyes glued to Geno for the entire combine. How does he interact with other players? Does he command attention and respect or does he blend with everyone else? How does he do in interviews? How does he respond when you press him about WVU's season, particularly his performance against Syracuse? The guy can make all the throws and can put up numbers, but what type of guy is he? So far, he doesn't come across as a franchise QB.
The Honey Badger
There's so much to say about young men who have careers like this. So many complex issues from drug use, to the amateur football system, to judgment and privilege, to many many other issues. The bottom line is Mathieu appears to be a young man who lacks or has lacked proper perspective. Things can go bad in a hurry, and they did for Mathieu, but what's worrisome is that he didn't seem to be able to stop his slide despite such promising prospects. Now I'll be the first to say that I think weed should be legalized, but like alcohol and smoking, there's a time and place for such things. Most of the time is not the time for such things. When you've been busted repeatedly, it's time to stop or figure out a way to not get caught. It seems like Mathieu has the discipline of a three year old and that should worry any GM who's thinking of paying a young man hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. This young man needs help and it's going to take a special set of mentors to keep him on track. Most NFL teams don't have the infrastructure to support Mathieu, but I suppose that's okay because most teams aren't going to be interested in him. His talent is eye-popping, his size is underwhelming, his intangibles were (maybe still are) terrible. It took Pac Man many years and much mayhem to go through an offseason without getting arrested. I think Mathieu will get drafted and if gets in with the right team he'll make waves in some time.
