Week 4: What to Watch For

Lots of things to get to this week. We are now entering the part of the season where we can put our conceptions of teams to work. Now is when the pretenders and contenders begin to assert themselves. Let's start with what we learned from the 49ers and move on to the rest of the league

49ers: On the positive side they got back to what they do best. On the not so positive side they haven't fixed their most glaring need, a lack of a passing game. I was way over my skis with Kaepernick. He's good, but he's not on Luck or even Wilson's level. Those guys deliver without a strong supporting cast where as Kaep, at least for right now, he needs help. I expect the niners to be better by seasons end, but by then Seattle may have run away with this division. 2013 will be a down year for my favorite team, 2014 should be another story.

Seahawks on the road: In my mind this game means more to only one team because only one of these teams is a legit championship contender. Seattle can strike more fear into the hearts of the league with a big win here and if Houston loses I thin more people will begin to realize what a fraud they are. This will be a fascinating game to watch. Keep an eye on how the rookie Hopkins plays against Seattle's secondary. If this young man is the talent we think he is he will show you something today.

The Bucs and Josh Freeman: This team is a mess! I mean a Lane Kiffin, Bobby Patrino type of mess. Rumors that the coach has lost the locker room, benching your starting QB, star veteran pick-up has beef with the head guy, this ship is sinking. Josh Freeman has had a puzzling career. He's not a transcendent talent, but his regression seems to partially be due to who's been brought in to help him develop. Unfortunately, I think his career as a starter is done. As for Schiano, he needs to find a franchise QB by this time next year or he's done. Coaches are tied to their QBs. Coaches that get fired never find the franchise guy, coaches that stick around always have "their guy" at the position. The Schiano clock starts now.

Lions vs. Bears: Second most fascinating game to watch this week. I don't think we'll learn a hole lot about either team no matter the outcome, this will just be a fun game to watch. Like LSU vs. Georgia this past weekend, we both know these teams are good and will play each other hard. Both teams should be in the mix for a playoff spot towards the end of the season. I give Chicago the edge here because of the head coaching. Tresmann is a grown-up and Schwartz is a hot head. This game should be fairly close throughout and I think the first year head coach will make the fewest critical mistakes.

Must win teams: These teams have got to get a win if they are going to salvage their season.
Giants
Steelers
Washington
Philly's not on this list because the rest of the division is so bad and they have a win. Dallas is running away with things, but if the 'Boys lose today it keeps the door open. As for the three teams on this list a win today doesn't mean they make it to the post season, it means they put themselves in a position to not feel completely crapping about 2013. I don't think any of the coaches find their jobs in jeopardy at seasons end, but the cushion gets that much thinner. The Giants have the toughest task this week, but they've got a history of rising to the occasion when the chips are down. I'll be surprised if all three teams lose.

London: These games are stupid. I get that the NFL has international ambitions and as a business they should be trying to expand their brand. Logistically however, these games are a nightmare for players and they're not particularly exciting to for fans. Talk of a franchise in London is the only thing more logistically ludicrous than games in London. If the Brits and Europe are clamoring for more NFL then they can tune in to games over here or do what we did with the MLS and start their own league.

Trent Richardson: Ahmad Bradshaw's out and Richardson has had a full week with his new team. The Jags play hard so I'm not expecting Richardson to have a monster game, but this should be the week we see how the Colts plan to use the 3rd overall pick for 2011's draft. More so than his rushing yards keep an eye on the number of touches he gets and don't be surprise if he out gains all other skill positions. Someone in Houston should be watching this game very closely.

Troubled receivers on the trading block: Josh Gordon and Kenny Britt are extremely talented players that may have worn out their welcomes. Both players are the best their respective offenses have to offer, but both players are knuckleheads. Britt is midway through a downward spiral where as Gordon, for the time being, is saying all the right things. I think both guys are playing on different teams come 2014, this is almost guaranteed in Britt's case. To me only Gordon is worth the trouble. Britt talks to much and doesn't appear to understand how his twitter rants are hurting his trade/free agent value. Gordon is one positive drug test away from a season long ban so I wouldn't give a lot of him, but if I'm good team with a good locker room I'm very intrigued by the Cleveland Brown star. The 49ers are a good fit for Gordon because they need a big play guy on the outside, they have a ton of picks they could offer Cleveland, and they have a good locker room and leadership. Gordon would give the 49ers a chance if they had to play in Seattle late in the year and if Crabtree comes back healthy along with Manningham and Boldin in the slot this team would be a Super Bowl favorite once again.

Enjoy the games this week!

Week 3: What we learned, what we know

Another interesting week and a lot to cover so let's get started.

Trent Richardson: Love the trade for both sides. Trent and the Colts are the more immediate winners in this situation as the former Alabama star goes to a better run organization than his former team and the Colts continue to build a team for eventual AFC dominance. This isn't a close to a loss for the Browns as they stockpile picks aggressively execute their vision for the team. This trade has the potential to turn into a colossal bust for Cleveland if they don't draft well, but I like the fact that they're putting themselves in position to acquire their biggest need, a franchise QB.

Colts vs. 49ers: This was a surprise. Not so much that Luck and company played well, but that the 49ers played so poorly. It's clear that the 49ers' receiving corps is extremely limited. They simply cannot get open consistently. Moreover, it seems through the first few weeks that defenses have figured out a way to slow down the read-option. What bothers me most about this game is that for the second straight week the 49ers don't seem to be making effective adjustments on offense to counter how teams are playing them. I'm not sure why Frank Gore, who averaged 7.3 yards a carry, ended up with only 11 carries in the game. The rushing attack was effective in the first quarter and then the 9ers seemed to abandon it. We know this team, the 49ers, has the ability to play better so it seems their problems are more psychological than physical. It will be interesting to see how this team responds to the self inflicted wounds and offensive limitations.

Aldon Smith: Youth, money, and fame ruin many a career. It's encouraging, giving all the turmoil Smith has caused this season that he's taking steps to get himself better. One of the things I really appreciate about Ray Lewis as commentator is his perspective on how mental health is so important and such a neglected topic for professional athletes. We don't talk or do enough as a society to ensure young people have good mental health and health coping mechanisms and Smith is just another manifestation of that failure.

Von Miller: Colin Cowherd is fond of saying "Own your baggage". Von Miller didn't take this advice and instead took the Brian Braun approach and denied his wrong doing. I'm a bit shocked by how poorly he's reported to have handled his league violations and wonder if his career can recover. As a GM I'd be incredibly reluctant to resign Miller to another contract simply because I can't trust him to stay clean or own up to his faults. This is such a tough situation because Miller is so talented that letting him go can't be a decision you take lightly.

Dolphins vs Falcons: This game highlights the limitations the Falcons have as a Super Bowl contender, but we learned something fundamentally new from this game; the Dolphins can really compete. More than that we're beginning to see Ryan Tannehill grow into a franchise QB. I'm late to the Tannehill party, but now I'm pretty convinced the Dolphins won't have to worry about the QB position for the next few years, they've found their guy. Right now the Dolphins are a potential threat. The next five games are really tough and will tell us a lot about how good this team can be. Keep your eye on October 27th when the Fins go to New England to take on Brady. A win there would be quite huge.

Geno Smith: I was wrong about Smith, sort of. I did not expect him to play this well ever, and I admittedly don't care for his demeanor in the same way I don't care for Jay Cutler's demeanor. I still think he's a limited QB, but he can clearly play the game. The Jets are managing their new QB well by giving him plenty of run support and challenging him to throw down field. The Jets are far more interesting than I thought they'd be, which, if I'm honest with myself, pisses me off a bit.

Packers vs. Bengals: Let's not get too carried away about this win for Cincy. If Johnathan Franklin holds onto the football then the Pack almost certainly win this game. It's clear that the Packers, in order to be successful, need a dependable running game. Starks seems to be too injury prone to be the guy and the two rookies are going to have their growing pains. The Packers will likely turn things around and be just fine. As for the Bengals, once again Dalton's 300+ yard passing drought continues. This team can play with anybody, but because of their QB they're not to win every game they're in. If a team limits their mistakes and challenges Dalton to throw to win the game they'll be just fine.

Washington vs. Detroit: It should be clear by now that Washington simply isn't as talented a roster as last year's record suggest they were. Alfred Morris is a good not great running back, the receiving corps is not particularly dynamic, and the defense is a bit old and undisciplined. On the positive side RGIII is showing that he can through the ball from the pocket relatively effectively (300+ yards per game at 63%). What we're seeing from him is more of what I expected from him last year. Washington's hopes for a playoff run are in jeopardy, but that's okay because like RGIII's knee injury this setback will force the organization to address their fundamental flaws. The Lions are what they are. They should have won this game more comfortably, but they didn't. They'll get exposed against the better teams in the NFC.

Bears vs. Steelers: Tresmann is clearly moving this team in the right direction, particularly offensively. The biggest difference is Cutler's development and ability to make quick throws. This team is almost as scary as the Broncos when it comes to their pass catchers and if Cutler can continue to stay upright then the Bears are going to cause teams some problems. The defense is playing well and though they're not as dominant as they used to be they're making plays and are far from a liability. The Steelers are in trouble. I think making a coaching change would be a mistake, but I think their 0-3 start won't help the strained relationship between some of the offensive players and the OC Todd Halely. This season may be out of reach, but the Steelers still have a good roster that can be much improved if they make their usual smart personnel moves in the offseason.

Texans vs. Ravens: Say it out loud, "The Texans were only able to score 9 points against a Ravens defense missing the majority of their starters from last year including two HOFers, one of which is now on Texan gave up 30 points to a Ravens offense missing the majority of their offensive skill players". It's hard to watch true pros like Andre Johnson suffer from the incompetence of upper management. Hopefully others will learn from his experience and become more active in the decisions they make on who they're employed by. Boy the Ravens reload well!

Panthers vs. Giants: The Panthers have finally hit on their winning formula. Let Cam's passing develop from an effective running game. This gives the talented defense time to rest and gives the opposing defense another wrinkle to be concerned with. The Giants are an advance case of the Niners and Steelers. They've got obvious personnel limitations and seem to be suffering from some mental challenges as a team. If any team can turn things around it's this one, but this loss was about as ugly as it gets. If the players bail on the coaching staff it'll be a long and painful season.

Seahawks: Every team in the NFC should root against Seattle because if they get home field it's all over. The Seahawks continue to just steamroll opponents at home and while their road record is not stellar no other squad has looked this dominant thus far. The next five games include four on the road so we'll see how things progress. If Seattle is 6-2 or better through 8 they'll likely finish no worse than 11-5.

Broncos vs. Raiders: Duh!

I'll be back with more news and thoughts before Thursday's games!

Week 2

What an exciting week! Lots of close games and now we know just a little bit more about what we can expect during the season. Let's revisit my Week 2: What to Watch For list and then move on to other thoughts.

1) The Cowboys: I said this game would tell us if things have truly changed in Big D as it would likely come down to a final drive Romo and the crew would need in order to win. Turns out I was right. The Cowboys didn't pull out the victory and because of that I think things haven't changed that much in Dallas. Dez Bryant was spectacular in the first half and then disappeared once the Chiefs' D made adjustments. I said KC was a tough place to play and that the difference b/w a win and a loss for Dallas would be leadership. Championship teams usually win games like that and though the Cowboys may win a lot of games this year we've seen them come up short like this all too often. Told you so...

2) Zona vs. Detroit. Peterson is really good. Megatron got loose, but that doesn't negate his (Peterson's) talent. It's becoming increasingly hard to play corner in this league so my hat goes off to Peterson and the way he stayed with Megatron for most of the game. I still think he's a bit overrated as he failed to tackle Johnson on a slant that resulted in a long TD. Arizona's line held up against a Lions' d-line that was curiously ineffective. Mendenhall ran for 66 and a touch and Palmer was upright for most of the game. Arizona can play with anyone and if you have any Detroit stock left, sell it. No offensive points in the second half means the coaching staff couldn't/didn't make enough or any good adjustments. There are ways good teams lose games and this is not one of them. The Lions are too talented and Swartz has been with this team too long to go down like this.

3) RGIII. He's still rusty. I said this would be a bad spot for Washington and it was. 0-2 is not a good start, but it's not the end of the world. Washington and RGIII are not going to be as dynamic as they were last year, especially given the fact that RGIII is coming off of major knee surgery. My worry is that he gets frustrated and tries to make more plays with his feet. If RGIII is going to last in this league he's going to have to become a better passer from the pocket and he's probably the least developed of the young QBs in that regard. Be patient Washington fans. RGIII is very good, but he's going to need some time to build a solid foundation so he can play for a decade.

4) The Manning Bowl. I thought this game wouldn't be that interesting and it wasn't. The Giants have been 0-2 before and had a successful season. Right now they can't run the ball effectively, but we knew that coming in. The Broncos showed once again that they're a top 5 team in the league, but again, we knew that coming in. Both teams will be competitive throughout the year, blah, blah, blah.

5) 49ers vs. Seahawks. I thought this was going to be a good game. I was wrong. This was an ass kicking. And though it was tough to watch my favorite team get handled I learned a few things from this 4 quarters of domination:

a) If Seattle gets home field throughout the playoffs they'll be nearly impossible to beat. No team wants to go play in this stadium. It's just that intimidating.

b) 49ers still commit a worrisome number of boneheaded penalties.

c) Kaepernick is still learning how to be a consistently effective QB; especially in the redzone and under pressure. One thing Wilson does much better than Kaep is throw under duress and on the move.

d) The 49ers really miss Crabtree. Boldin is great receiver, but he's not fast and that really hurt the 9ers' passing game Sunday night. Kaep struggled partially because his guys couldn't get open and if anyone is going to beat Seattle they're going to need strong receivers that can separate from those big corners. Nightmare game!

Okay, now on to other thoughts about week 2

Cam Newton: whatever it is that E.J. Manuel has that allowed him to win this game Cam doesn't appear to have it. Success is often apparent from day one. Success, not glory or greatness, but success. I'm not saying Manuel will be great, nor am I saying Cam is a complete flop, but you can't look at Cam's body of work to date and then look at E.J.'s early success and feel too much better about the former player's trajectory than the later. The panthers had three field goals in the fourth quarter and though Cam led his team to a lead after the game was tied he still was unable to score a TD when it mattered most. To me that speaks to leadership, poise, preparation, and mental talent. Cam doesn't have a lot of offensive help, but neither does Luck. One of those guys publicly states he wants to be an icon before taking his first NFL snap and the other just goes out and plays like one. When Newton fails to achieve his ultimate goals it won't all be his fault. He's just another in a line of incredible talents that come up short because they weren't afforded the tools, time, and mentorship to realize their full potential. It's a come story across many professions and everyone's a loser in these scenarios.

Houston Texans: By now it should be apparent that this team ain't it. Say it out loud (again), the Texans, at home, ahead by 6 going into the fourth quarter give up two touchdowns to the Titans and need overtime to win. The Texans are 2-0 and have managed to barely squeak out games against teams they should have beat more comfortably. This game says more about the Titans than it does the Texans because we should know by now the later team isn't for real. I'm not sure how the Titans have been able to stay in some of these games, but it appears they may be building some important momentum for the coming years, if they can find the right QB.

Pitt vs. The Natti: The Steelers need better players on offense and Andy Dalton is limited. First, the later. It's hard to watch a QB miss as many open receivers as Dalton did and think, "Yeah, that's a franchise QB". Unfortunately, I think the Bengals are trapped on a shallow peak with Dalton as their guy. He's obviously limited and if he had played in an earlier era he would be more than adequate to win a championship because defenses would be better able to directly control the outcome of games. The last teams that fits this mold are the championship Buccaneers and 2002 Ravens. Until the Bengals try and fail to win it all with Dalton they're not going to be able to make a change. This is the same problem the Texans have albeit the Texans are 14-16 more games away from realizing their limitations and being justified in making a change at QB. Maybe the Texans' failure to win a ring this year will help the Bengals realize they need to pull a Seattle and find a real franchise QB in later rounds.

Now The Steelers. It's always worrisome when a team has a glaring need for multiple seasons and doesn't address it. The Steelers acquired a fantastic center but failed to build a solid supporting cast. The problem now is they have no healthy and/or dominant skill position talent and their offensive line can't pick up the slack. Big Ben doesn't have the extra time to wait for Sanders and Brown to get open and the line can't create big enough holes for Redman and Dwyer to run through. It's frankly a bit shocking to see an organization so well run fail to maintain such an important component of success. They'll recover quickly though.

Okay, on to week three!

Week 2: What to watch for

This will be a new segment I'll be doing each week from now on. Every week, five or more specific story lines going into the week of games.

1) How the Cowboys perform on the road in KC. This is still one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL and now the Chiefs are a well coached team. Their roster, the Chiefs' that is, is very talented and their QB doesn't make mistakes. The Cowboys are coming off a big home win and their best offensive weapon, Bryant, is not 100%. If they get down early it could be a 3INT game for Romo as he makes ill advised throws to try to get back in the game. This is the type of game you'd bet the Cowboys to lose because this is the type of game where strong leadership carries you through to victory. If things are different this year for the 'Boys you'll now it by how disciplined and focused they play in this game down the stretch.

2) Arizona vs Detroit. This game will be fascinating on many levels. First, the matchup of Megatron and Patrick Peterson should be fun to watch. I think Peterson is a bit overrated, but he'll have a chance to prove doubters like me wrong if he can cover the best receiver in the game one-on-one. It's really too bad Jonathan Cooper is injured because I would have loved to see him go against Suh and Fairly. This could be a bad game for Arizona's offense because their o-line is subpar. If Fitzgerald's hammy is okay and the o-line can keep that psychopath Suh from injuring their QB then Arizona will be fine. My guess is this is somewhat of a defensive game (Zona's D can play) and the birds find a way to pull it out at home.

3) RGIII's mechanics. They weren't good Monday night and though he's not willing to admit he's rusty, dude was clearly rusty. I think Washington starts the season off 0-2. They're coming off a short week, their defense has got to be tired, the Packers are really pissed they lost in San Fran, and that Pack D will have to make only minor adjustments for the Washington attack. This will be a tough game for the second year sensation RGIII. If he can be productive in the pocket like Kaepernick was last week against the green machine, win or lose, it'll go a long way towards his development and the long-term success of the team. Detroit in week three. Ugh! Just stay healthy RGIII!

4) The Manning Bowl. I actually don't care much about this game. It'll be good, don't get me wrong, I just think it won't be terribly compelling in terms of what the outcome of this game means for the rest of the season. Look, we already now what to expect from these two teams. The Giants are good, but inconsistent, the Broncos are really good on offense and will probably win the game. An 0-2 start won't be good for the Giants, but they weren't going to go 12-4 anyway. If the Broncos lose this game they'll still be the favorites to finish at the top of the AFC. You should enjoy this game because it could be the last one these two QBs play against each other, not because it has wide reaching implications for the 2013 season. Think of this like a friendly match between Spain and Brazil. It'll be fun to watch, but the only way you really care about the outcome is if this were a championship game.

5) 49ers vs. Seahawks. Saved the best for last. This should be a fantastic game to watch. I don't think the 49ers win this game because playing in Seattle is a nightmare. These teams don't like each other, these coaches don't like each other, and that's just what you want in a rivalry. I'll be watching these QBs, particularly Kaepernick. Wilson's shown himself to be practically unflappable in an almost Tebow-esque type of way. The guy is borderline delusional in his optimism, and in his case I mean it as a compliment. Kaepernick could be one of those rare guys that sees more of the picture and can use that to his advantage. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only other guys that come to mind that seem to have that rare combination of transcendent talent and holistic awareness, and Kaep is more physically talented than all of them. Win or lose, and I think the 49ers lose this game, I'll be glued to every move Kaepernick makes because there is no other QB in the NFL that shows this much promise combined with this much uncertainty. Luck is probably a future HOFer (no it's not to early to say that) and will continue to be exceptional in the way we've come to think of exceptional QBs. Wilson is really, really good, a fantastic leader, a grounded human being it seems, but he's physically limited and a bit cooky with his optimism and religious expression. RGIII is talented, but slight and will probably end his career with an injury. Cam may have missed the maturity boat and will struggle to understand why he likely never becomes an icon. Kaepernick is different. Kaepernick is special in a way we've never seen in this league. Steve Jay Gould, famous evolutionary biologist, coined the term "punctuated equilibrium" to describe a method of evolution that progressed with giant leaps instead of the steady rate of minute change most of us think evolution of species happen. Gould's description is likely more correct than convention.  Kaepernick may be that giant leap in the quarterback position that comes along once every Randal Cunningham.

Enjoy week 2!  

Monday Night Games

Here's a quick list of the things I learned watching the first Monday night's game and what I learned from the stats and highlights of the second game.

1) RGIII will need some time to reacclimatize to the league. His mechanics were off and he was not sharp in the first half, but...

2) RGIII can play QB in the NFL at a high level. After a disastrous start he finished with respectable stats, which tells me that he's got great poise. I guess we should expect this because he played much of his college career under the gun. Baylor is certainly not a powerhouse and for much of RGIII's formative QB years he played against superior opponents. As long as he can avoid serious injuries he'll be an excellent QB and I needed to see his performance in his second year to say that.

3) RGIII still has an itch to run after his initial read. When that knee brace comes off Griffin will be truly back to his old self. I just hope that before then he learns to depend more on his arm. He took some wicked shots in this game and looked a lot like the QB on the other team when he got up...very slowly. Vick and RGIII are small guys and they've really got to take care to not take too much damage.

4) Chip Kelly's offense will create problems for opposing defenses, but...

5) Chip Kelly needs a more accurate and dynamic QB to really put defenses on their heals. Vick missed several wide open receivers last night and that's because Michael Vick has never been a particularly polished passer. That's a circular argument, but you get what I'm saying. Ultimately Chip Kelly's career, like the career of all head coaches in the NFL, will be tied to the QB he decides to bring in. Kelly's current QB will more than likely get injured at some point this year and his backup is probably not the best fit for the system. If Chip Kelly gets a Colin Kaepernick type QB, one that can stay healthy and make dynamic/accurate throws, this team will be just a bit scary.

6) The Houston Texans are fools gold. With all offseason to prepare, in a later time zone, against a depleted roster, and a first year head coach they were down by 21 points in the third quarter. Say that out loud. Championship teams don't do that. Yes, they pulled out the victory and no one disputes the talent on their roster, but the fact that the Texans were so ill prepared for a game against a lesser opponent with a veteran coaching staff is absurd. If they ever win a Super Bowl with Kubiac and Schaub I'll be shocked.

7) Mike McCoy doesn't have a future as the Chargers' head coach if he keeps Philip Rivers as his QB. It's sad, but I think Rivers' opportunity to ever win a championship is over. While he did throw 4 tds his late pick six was awful and he completed less than 50% of passes. The trajectory of Rivers' career continues to point downward and McCoy will be wise to sell high on the veteran if he can. This franchise needs a complete facelift and having Rivers will just stall that process. McCoy hopefully knows he can't hitch his wagon to a veteran like Rivers, especially in an era where young QBs are playing lights out in their rookie seasons.

Week one is in the books! Bring on week two!

Week 1

Young QBs: We've still got to see how RGIII does tonight, but let's get started with looking at how the rest did.

They just don't got it: Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, and Weedon. In the case of the first three they are now in their third year and have yet to show that they've made any improvements. Weedon still has time to show that he can improve, but he'll be 30 in October so his timeline is roughly equivalent to the others. It doesn't take long to show that you can play QB at a high level as the guys I'll mention in a bit have done just that. Drafting these four guys early was a mistake, plain and simple. They simply aren't franchise QBs.

Cam Newton: I was actually impressed by Newton's game management here in that he didn't commit the big turnover. The offense appears to be much more balanced and if Greg Olson can hold onto a few more passes Newton's numbers look a lot better. Williams' fumble denies us the opportunity to see if Cam can pull out a hard fought victory, so the jury is still out, but things appear to be improving for "Superman". Let's see how they handle the adversity of a tough home loss.

Andrew Luck: Is still the best of the young guys. He's still the most advanced in terms of command of the offense and though his numbers weren't huge he still made fantastic throws under pressure and even scored using his legs.

Terrelle Pryor: WHAT?! This young man might actually have a shot at being a franchise guy. He didn't look lost, he didn't look panicked, and though he threw an interception late he did so trying to win the game. I'm shocked, but I won't completely reverse my opinion about Pryor's ceiling. He's certainly worth watching though.

E.J. Manuel: He certainly appears to be the best rookie QB of the class. Anytime you can almost beat Brady, throw 2 tds and no picks you're doing pretty good. Manuel wasn't spectacular, but the game didn't appear to big for him. This young man has poise and will be exciting to watch. Still not sold on a high ceiling, but I think his floor is higher than we thought on draft day.

Russell Wilson: is about as cool as they come. This was a tough game, but late in the game Wilson came alive, making great reads, difficult throws, and big plays. The go ahead td to Kearse was just gorgeous. Seahawks brass need to get this guy an outstanding outside receiver, because once they do he'll be unstoppable.

Colin Kaepernick: is really, really good. Kaepernick may be so talented that the shortcomings I saw Sunday afternoon may not really matter. What I saw was a QB that's still as comfortable in the pocket and who still has trouble with off balanced throws. These points are both a bit nit-picky, but if a team figures out how to cover Boldin well enough then I worry about Kaep's effectiveness. Then again the 49ers offense is such a multi-headed nightmare that I doubt a team will be able to defend them well. Kaep's game has a bit to go before he's truly unstoppable and that's pretty impressive given that he's only started 11 games. What a ceiling this young man has!

Ryan Tannehill: is more talented than the first four QBs I mentioned. I don't think he's an elite talent and I think he's handicaped by a below average owner and front office, but he'll make plays in this league.

Geno Smith: played a helluva game for a rookie. I'm still not buying any of his stock and if it hadn't been for the Bucs' lack of discipline, not just on the out of bounds play at the end of the game, Geno would not be that big a topic of conversation. If he comes out on Thursday and plays well then I'll start to reconsider how harsh I've been on him, but until then I'm still not convinced he's a franchise QB.

Dez Bryant: still doesn't appear to have figured out the subtlties of being an elite receiver. Bryant was 4th in targets among the big 4 skill players (Bryant, Austin, Witten, and Murray) and only managed to catch half of passes thrown to him. On several occasions he failed to run to the open spots in coverage and also failed to establish good position when covered by a defender, allowing the DB to swat away the ball. I feel bad that Bryant injured his ankle, but I feel worse because he's still not corrected the biggest flaw in his game. He may have some big games this year, but I have serious doubts he'll make the leap to elite before his career is over.

NFC West: is clearly the best division in football, and I don't even have to see tonight's games to know this. Arizona vs. St. Louis was one of the best games this weekend and you can see that those teams are really improved. San Fran and Seattle are fantastic teams with very good defenses and great young QBs. These division games are must watch TV.

Mike Wallace: Tannehill isn't as much of a downgrade from Big Ben as I thought, but boy you hate to see a player handle a situation like this. It's been one game and already Wallace is complaining to the media about his role in the offense. I'm worried that Wallace lacks perspective on his situation, which is only going to lead to more frustration and problems. Unfortunately the contract the Dolphins signed Wallace to somewhat justifies his perception of the situation, but instead of feeling entitled to more targets because of the money a company is paying him you'd prefer to see Wallace redouble his efforts in figuring out a way to get more involved in the offense. This situation says more about how poorly run the Dolphins are, but wise fans and NFL personnel saw this one coming. It's going to be a long year for Mr. Wallace.

Falcons/Saints: The issue with the Falcons is, and will continue to be, their defense. When it matters most they simply can't make crucial stops. I was a bit surprised the Saints' defense played so well. Maybe Payton is the perfect compliment to a guy like Rob Ryan and maybe this defense will continue to get better. The Saints are on their way back.

Lack of Discipline: Nothing drives me more crazy than talented teams that lack discipline. Three teams this weekend really worried me with their lack of discipline and I think if they don't get this issue addressed they'll end up losing games they shouldn't; one team has already done this. The Lions' lack of discipline is the least correctable because their coach appears to be just as much of a knucklehead as the players. But the issue is compounded by the presence of a sociopath at defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh is a bad dude, and I don't mean that in a good way. He appears to seek opportunities to hurt people on the field with the latest incident being a low block on a o-lineman that had no chance of making a play on a fumble return. His talent is considerable so it might be hard for the new coach to part ways with Suh come next year, but if I were the incoming coach I'd want no parts of this guy because there's no defense for his twisted sense of reality.

The Bucs' lack of discipline is puzzling because I like to think that there coach is above average. Ultimately I think Joss Freeman has shown that he's not the guy in Tampa. I think he's just talented enough to be considered a starter a la Donte Culpepper, but in the end he just doesn't make consistent or dynamic plays to start week in and week out. That puts a lot of pressure on a team, but the third down defensive penalties are really troublesome. Greg Schiano's ability as a head coach is on trial this season. He's earned a reputation for being a bit overly aggressive and unless he can reign in his team and instill a mindset of controlled aggression (and get a proper franchise QB) I think he's in trouble by the end of 2014.

The 49ers are the only team with a discipline problem that I think doesn't prevent them from winning a championship. Still, one has to wonder if Ahmad Brooks doesn't jump offsides on the opening drive in the Super Bowl would the Ravens have built the momentum that ultimately propelled them to victory (Boldin scored on the very next play). Fiery coaches like Jim Harbaugh struggle with modeling control for their teams and this was my worry when Harbaugh was hired. If he has a limitation it's that he doesn't appear to emphasize situational discipline enough with his players. The 9ers commit too many dumb penalties in big games for my liking.

Panthers Defense: is legit and have more talent at linebacker than all but maybe the 49ers. I'm very concerned if I'm the Bucs because I don't have a QB that can beat this defense without a running game.

Tonight's Games: I'm only watching one of these games and here's why. First, the second game comes one way to late. Next, the Texans and Chargers aren't at all interesting. Their QBs are B to B-, the Texans offensive schemes are vanilla while the Chargers' roster is not much better than the Raiders'. Lastly, I don't expect either of these teams to be particularly relevant come playoff time. As for the first game I'll be looking for two things: 1) How does RGIII handle the pass rush and 2) What does Chip Kelly have up his sleeve. That's it, that's all I care about. As with the teams in the other game I don't expect the Eagles or Washington to be Super Bowl contenders, but they are certainly interesting. I think it will be very difficult for RGIII to change his playing style from last year so I'm very curious to see how he'll be used differently and how he'll handle having to read more of the defense. As for Chip Kelly's offense I think it's going to be underwhelming because he doesn't yet have the tools at QB to pull off whatever genius he has lurking beneath is sleeves.

Enjoy the game(s) tonight and thanks for checking in!

2013 Season Preview

It's finally here! The 2013 NFL season. After weeks of speculation it's time for, well, more speculation. Here are my thoughts on what's to come in the regular season, division by division. Let's start with the best one in the game, the NFC West.

NFC WEST
Winner: coin flip between 49ers and Seahawks. Both teams are loaded, will hit you, and have dynamic QBs. It may come down to their two games, but they'll likely split those. I'll give the nod to the defending champs, but just barely.

49ers: Kaepernick will struggle a bit because he's still so young in terms of starts. I'm keeping an eye on the health of Patrick Willis and Frank Gore. The receiving corps would worry me a lot more if they hadn't acquired Boldin, they'll do enough to keep defenses honest. Best coach in the division and maybe the league and the bad taste of a Super Bowl loss. They're motivated.

Seahawks: Russel Wilson is the best QB in this division and this is arguably the second best roster in the division. Historically Pete Carroll has struggled with the finer details of game prep and management and I wonder if his exuberance and new-aged approach to running a team can overcome his shortcomings. Too much talking from Richard Sherman for him to live up to his own hype and I think he gets a bit exposed this year. In the end this team goes as Wilson goes. They'll win a lot of games and be impossible to beat at home.

Rams: The biggest question here is whether or not Sam Bradford has enough confidence to resurrect his career. Time is running out to build a supporting cast that Bradford can win with and that's a lot of pressure for a QB that's suffered from an incompetent front office. This defense is dynamic and much improved, but if they can't stop the 9ers or Seahawks' rushing attack they've got no shot. I like this team and think they're moving in the right direction, but if Bradford struggles this year it'll be another few years before they can find a replacement.

Cardinals: The Cards are the greatest unknown in this division. If the o-line can block well enough then they could challenge for a wildcard slot. It's that simple. The defense is very good, the receivers are smart and big, and the coach is solid. How they execute plays on offense will dictate their success.

AFC WEST
Winner: Broncos. You can't stop this offense and they have the second best QB in the league. Done and done.

Broncos: We know they can score points and they'll make the playoffs, but can they make the plays they need to advance in the postseason? Pencil in 11 wins and maybe a trip to New York in February.

Chiefs: I'm most curious about this team because their roster  and coach are good enough to make a deep playoff run. The question remains how will Alex Smith be asked to play? Will he be asked to throw the ball down field? If not I think this team's ceiling is the same as it was for the 49ers when Smith was their QB. I wouldn't be surprised if they challenged for the division, but I think they're limited in the long-term primarily because Smith doesn't make dynamic throws on a regular basis.

Chargers: This has got to be one of the most mismanaged teams in NFL history. They've simply had a mass exodus of talent that hasn't been replaced. The Manning family knew what they were doing when refused to let Eli play in San Diego. This team needs a complete face lift, but unfortunately they still have a QB that's just talented and young enough to play out his 2-3 years of top productivity. They're good for 6 or so wins this year and a lot of frustration. Wouldn't want to be a rookie on this team.

Raiders: Terrell Pryor will be the starting QB. Things are bad in Oakland. Pryor is dynamic and has hopefully learned from sitting on the bench, but he still doesn't appear to have mastered the mental nuances of the game. It's going to be a long season for the team on the east side of the bay. Keep an eye on the players drafted by the new GM because that will tell you if he keeps his job. Raiders are mostly unwatchable this year.

NFC NORTH
Winner: Packers. Best run organization with the best QB and now the possibility of a workable running game.

Packers: If the Packers can run the ball effectively it's all over. Their defense isn't dominant, but their secondary makes plays and you always have to account for number 52. Greg Jennings wasn't a big loss and Randall Cobb looks like he's poised for a monster season. Packers win this division going away.

Bears: Tresman is a dynamic football mind, but this team has too much rebuilding to do on defense and their QB makes too many costly throws to keep his team in games. The offense will be better, but their defense takes a step back and the vets on this team get frustrated with a coaching change (firing Lovie Smith) they didn't really like. Oh, and the o-line is still struggles to keep Cutler upright.

Lions: Penalties and lack of discipline cost this team at least two games this year. Their end of the year stats on offense will confound you much like the Norv Turner led Chargers did. Swartz gets the boot and if the ownership can get the right coach this team will challenge for the division in 2014. Nick Saban will pick up the phone come February because this team has everything except an adult as a head coach.

Vikings: This is year the Vikings finally come to terms with the mistake of drafting Christian Ponder number 8 overall. They probably don't make the playoffs, but they win more games than you might think because AD is just that good.

AFC NORTH
Winner: Ravens. It's close between them and the Bengals.

Ravens: Ozzie Newsome is smarter than you, trust that he knows what he's doing in retooling this roster. Their biggest weakness is the receiving corps, which I think limits their bid for a repeat, but they are one of the most well coached and well run teams in the league. They'll be just fine.

Bengals: Andy Dalton is the limiting factor here. This team is loaded, but they're limited at the most crucial position, the position that wins championships in today's NFL. Dalton is easily the third best QB in this division and the other two have Super Bowl rings. I'm just not confident Dalton can win enough games against the likes of Flacco, Big Ben, Brady, Luck, and Manning let alone the QB/team they would face in New York. This organization has made vast improvements, but ultimately they've got the wrong QB to win it all.

Steelers: Great QB, great coach, limited playmakers on offense and an aging D. The demise of the Steelers is vastly over-stated, but they'll struggle again this year. Make no mistake though, they are one good draft away from contending for a championship again. Waiter, you still haven't brought me my o-lineman!

Browns: The sooner this team can part ways with Brandon Weeden the better off they'll be. Richardson is the second or third best back in this conference and Josh Gordon is a playmaker (and knucklehead). The defensive leadership is aging and they made a huge blunder overpaying for Kruger and drafting Mingo instead of Jarvis Jones, but there's hope in Cleveland. Teddy Bridgewater would be one hell of a shot in the arm come May wouldn't he?

NFC EAST
Winner: Giants. Best run organization coming off of a disappointing season. They'll be ready.

Giants: It's pretty cut and dry with this team. If the defensive line can put just a little more consistent pressure on opposing QBs and can stop the run a little more effectively then this team will be just fine. They won't run off a 4 game winning streak during the back half of the season, but you'll not want to play them come playoff time if they're clicking.

Cowboys: Dez Bryant looked unstoppable this preseason and if Miles Austin can stay healthy this team will be a nightmare. Romo makes plays, but he also makes anti-plays a la Brett Favre. In the end this team lacks the "it" in its head coach and GM to win it all.

Washington: RGIII either doesn't stay healthy for 16 games or does and has trouble making multiple reads without taking off an running. This team played over their skis in 2012 and don't really have the supporting cast to repeat that effort. Morris doesn't catch enough balls to adjust to the eight man, hyper-blitz fronts I'm expecting teams to throw at Washington. None of Washington's receivers really scare you and the defense is talented, but aging. Then again, RGIII might be the second coming of Jeebus.

Eagles: Michael Vick is not nearly as good as people think (only played 16 games once in his career and is a turn-over machine) and the backup is likely a career backup. The franchise QB for this team isn't on the roster and no manner of Chip Kelly genius is going to change the fact that this team lacks offensive playmakers outside of McCoy and the fact that their defense can't stop anybody. This team is going to be really interesting, but not so much until 2014.

AFC EAST
Winner: Patriots as soon as it's mathematically possible for them to have it locked up.

Patriots: Last time I checked the best QB in this conference is still playing in New England. He's never needed good receivers to win a championship and this young defense is getting better by the week. This is still the Pats division for as long as Brady is the QB and Belichick is the coach.

Dolphins: I'm starting to see in Tannehill what others appear to be seeing, a potentially dynamic QB that's slowly adjusting to the NFL. His supporting cast on offense is poor and the front office made one of the biggest draft mistakes in 2013 by taking Jordan with the number 3 pick. Tannelhill might end up being a victim of a poorly run franchise and never get the support or vision he needs from the front office to be successful.

Bills: Don't be surprised if Manuel leads them to some surprise wins. He's not Cam Newton from a talent perspective, but he probably better than Vince Young. If Spiller can stay health and the defensive overhaul results in fewer big plays then this team will make a splash. Ultimately they get exposed against the better teams in the conference, but they'll learn a lot from this year.

Jets: The only other unwatchable team in the NFL. Rex Ryan has coached himself out of any future head coaching positions and ultimately is better for it. Idzik will likely have a shot at drafting a real franchise QB in May and will be able to truly rebuild, so long as he doesn't take Manziel. This team is absurdly terrible on offense. I'll be surprised if they win more than 4 games.

NFC SOUTH
Winners: Falcons because their defense is just a tad bit better than the Saints'.

Falcons: This is the year the Falcons have to win a championship because after 2013 their deficiencies on defense will be too great to ignore and correct without massive turnover in personnel. I don't think they get there because they simply can't make enough plays on defense to stop either top team in the NFC West.

Saints: The Payton and Brees combo puts the fear of almighty back into opposing defenses, but the Saints' defense is something opposing offenses look forward to. Rob Ryan tries to do too much with his complex system and again doesn't have the personnel to execute his vision. The Saints will score 35+, but will give up 40+.

Panthers: If Cam can act like an adult on a consistent basis then this team can begin to realize it's potential. Beason, Kuchley, and Davis might be the most talented LB trio in the league if the two vets on the outside can stay healthy. Steve Smith is still a playmaker and Williams can be an effective runner. It's all on Cam, which makes me nervous.

Bucs: Toughest team in the division to figure out. Probably the most talented on both sides of the ball, but oddly limited at QB. I can't tell if Freeman just isn't a franchise QB or if he's still not reached his potential. This could be the best team in the division in 2014 if the later is true.

AFC SOUTH
Winner: Colts. Surprised?

Colts: Easily the third best QB in the conference on the third or forth best run organization in the conference, with one of the youngest and most dynamic rosters. This team doesn't beat itself and Luck just figures it out quicker than your team's defense can figure him out. A sleeping juggernaut begins to awaken in 2013.

Texans: Too overhyped, limited at QB, shrink in big games, and a limited coaching staff. They could win the division if Luck isn't as good as I think he's going to be this year and they've have made some really good picks in this year's draft. Easily the most talented roster in the division, but I'm just not sold on the Texans' coaching staff and QB. They don't do the little things well and rely too much on being more physically talented than their opponents. There's nothing cleaver, particularly creative, or smart about the way the Texans want to beat you and so it's that much easier to take advantage of the weakness they make obvious by being vanilla. They'd run away with the division if Luck weren't in it, but the only person on the Texans who's smarter than the second year prodigy is the oft injured Ed Reed, and that includes the coaching staff.

Titans: They are quietly building a team that their future franchise QB draft pick can step into and succeed. Locker is not talented enough to overcome the mismanagement of this roster over the years and unfortunately his time is all but run out. The o-line is better, CJ2K will likely be also, but they lack defensive playmakers and a QB that can make plays. The Titans are almost unwatchable this season.

Jags: Another almost an unwatchable team except for the fact that MJD is back and hopefully back to his Pro Bowl form. Gabbert may be improving, but he's not a franchise QB. Blackmon is a knucklehead and not as dynamic as I once thought. The linebackers are ballers and the d-line has some talent, but this is a broken franchise at it's core. MJD is gone after this year and thus will begin the rebuilding process...again.


Well folks, there you have it. Some quick thoughts on the season we have ahead of us. Look for weekly thoughts on the league throughout the year and enjoy opening weekend!