Jameis Winston

I said earlier that this young man was the best college QB I've seen since Andrew Luck. That's still true. His skill set is as amazing as they come. I also said that I thought he could be as good as Luck so long as he keeps out of trouble. He hasn't and I no longer think Winston will be a transcendent star unless the allegations against him are completely false. Even if Winston is completely absolved of his alleged crimes one has to wonder how he ended up in a situation like this. The great ones at QB, the truly transcendent talents never have this happen to them. I'm not naive enough to think that the issue has never come up with current and former greats, but as terrible as this is the great QBs never have their transgressions exposed to the public like this. Winston is now in the Brett Favre, Big Ben tier of great; tremendous talent, but life judgement limited. Winston's temper is has been documented before and at the time I read about it I was worried about what that might mean in terms of his self control and self awareness. I'm not sure the two are related in this particular case, but those are two big red flags you don't want to see if you're a GM thinking of drafting this guy.

Winston is very young and young people often make terrible errors in judgement. These allegations definitely will hurt Winston and I hope he and the people around him are smart enough to seek help with an issue that so many young men seem to suffer from; abuse/mistreatment of women. What will be hardest to gage from the outside is how Winston perceives these allegations and the situation he has found himself in. What you hope to see is a person who understands the larger implications of his alleged actions as well as the specific trauma his actions have brought about in both participants' lives. Winston needs to handle his celebrity with discretion, which is virtually impossible for young star QB who's probably being propositioned left and right. Life isn't fair even for those seemingly blessed with prospects of wealth, success, and celebrity. But somehow the great ones manage to handle their off the field business with either class or sufficient secrecy. We know Winston can throw it all over the yard and that he appears to have a unique football mind. What matters most is not football for Jameis Winston, it's how well he manages life. So far, it's a big fail. As an armchair GM my enthusiasm for this young man has dropped by at least 50%.  

Offseason Preview: NFC NORTH

Bears: First things first this team needs to commit to Jay Cutler. They're not going to get another QB of his caliber in time for Tresman to coach up and win games. Next, they need to sure up the offensive line. Cutler needs time to throw and he needs to be protected better. Lastly the Bears have to begin rebuilding their defense starting with the front seven. This past year injuries have decimated their interior defensive front and their linebackers are getting old. Bostic was a good pick and though he may not be the next great Chi'town MLB he'll do for now. Julius Peppers has disappeared and if the Bears are going to compete against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers they need a better pass rush. This team can continue to win games, but they've got to be better at the point of attack.

Lions: This team is a dumpster fire. The lions have to move on from Jim Swartz. This team has real talent at the QB position, but it's clear Stafford is not getting the coaching he needs to develop into a top tier QB. More than anything this team needs a teacher who won't allow players to lose their heads on and off the field. If I were a new GM/head coach the first thing I'd do is trade that psychopath Suh to the highest bidder. Suh is a problem waiting to happen and a huge distraction from week to week. The Lions have earned the reputation as a dirty defense and I think that's in large part to Suh's play and influence on the rest of the team. He's got to go. The Lions also have to get better along the offensive line and at middle linebacker. A dominant character guy at MLB (think Patrick Willis) would be the perfect leadership replacement for Suh on defense. The secondary is a weakness, but that's less of a priority with Ziggy Ansah coming on as an edge rusher. Bottom line this team needs a new direction and new leadership.

Packers: I can't quite figure out why this team struggles at times. Rodgers is great and this offense can be dominant, especially now with Lacey toting the rock. The Pack have to get better at stopping the run and I think that's about the long and short of it. This is the best team in the division because they have the best QB. The Bears are not that far behind so the Pack have to get better across line.

Vikings: If this team gets a dynamic franchise QB then this division will arguably be the second best in the NFL. The Vikes have future HOFer at tailback, a veteran receiver, and an up and coming playmaker at the other receiver position. This defense can play though they're getting a bit long in the tooth, but they've got another year or so before the rebuilding process must begin in earnest. This franchise hasn't had a long term QB since Frank Tarkenton (Favre was just a brief distraction from their QB woes). Given their record the Vikings will be in the QB sweepstakes for 2014. The thing the ownership has to figure out is is there a franchise QB worth drafting in this year's class. Personally I think Teddy Bridgewater is the only candidate for such a position worth taking in the first round. If the Vikings can't get him then they need to keep their current head coach another year.

Post Season Push!

Okay, it's been a couple of weeks since I last posted (out of the country for my day job), but I'm back to lay down some perspective on trends leading into the post season push. Here's my list.

1) The Panthers are starting to make the rest of the NFC nervous. Finally, we are beginning to see what some thought Cam was capable of. Personally, I didn't think we'd see him play like this, but now that he's shown this kind of poise and maturity to go along with his unique skills things will get interesting. Perhaps we've been spoiled with the early successes of young QBs and forgotten that development at this position takes time. I don't think the Panthers have the experience or the offensive personnel to make a deep run in the playoffs, but then again I didn't think I'd ever see Cam play this well.

2) Peyton simply isn't as good as Brady, and it's not close. Manning is a different QB when the conditions/circumstances aren't ideal while Brady is much more consistent, even thriving in subpar conditions. When things are just right Manning is a monster, Brady is a monster 24/7, 365. I don't know how a team would have any confidence in being able to win a big game after the way the Broncos lost last night. This is the kind of loss that sticks with you, the kind of loss that makes you doubt your ability and focus when it matters most. These two teams will likely play in the AFC championship game and if that happens the Pats will have that much more of a mental edge on the Broncos. Peyton is great, but he's no Brady.

3) Stick a fork in the Chiefs, their Super Bowl dreams are done. We are now beginning to see why the 49ers let Alex Smith walk after they discovered what they had in Kaepernick. Kaepernick is going through some growing pains right now, but even with his subpar performance I'd rather have him than Smith. Alex won't lose you the game, but when it's time to go toe-to-toe and make dynamic plays from the pocket he simply hasn't come through. He's flashed such capability (divisional playoff game vs the Saints in 2011), but I wonder if the years of coaching and front office turmoil have made Smith wary of delivering the ball down field consistently. The Chiefs will make the playoffs, but if they don't get a home game and/or their pass rushers back it could be a one and done situation.

4) The NFC West will be the most interesting division to watch. No team in this division is out of it and though the Seahawks have the edge things aren't looking good for them as of late. San Fran's Monday night win was big because it keeps a small distance between them and the Cards. The Rams have to win this coming week to stay in the hunt and they'll have a good shot as they always play the Niners tough. Keep your eyes glued to this division.

5) The Seahawks are not moving in the right direction late in the season. The suspension of Browner is worrisome, but I'm more equally concerned about Cox being waived within 48 hours of signing. It seems Pete Carroll has an institutional problem as his players keep failing substance tests. The fact that the 'Hawks signed and then cut a free agent so quickly tells me they're not managing the fallout from the suspension well. It's not an easy task, but championship teams generally don't look this inept from a personnel standpoint when these situations pop up. We can't forget that Carroll's job was likely saved by Russell Wilson and without him he'd be a three-time NFL head coaching failure. Are we witnessing the beginnings of his demise? Maybe not, but then again...

6) If you're selling Colts stock I'm buying. The Broncos are vulnerable, the Chiefs and Bengals are limited at QB, the Pats are good but not invincible, and whoever winds up at the six seed will have a tough road playoff battle. The Colts may not be ready for the best the NFC has to offer, but if you think because they've had some tough defeats lately that they're not a threat you're crazy. The only QBs better than Luck right now are Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and that's it. You read that right. Andrew Luck is better than Peyton Manning at this point because Manning can't through in cold weather and is mentally more fragile. Give me Luck over Manning 10 out of 10 times. This team will play hard and compete and they're only getting better and learning from their mistakes. They're limited as a team, but their QB may have the fewest number of limits we've ever seen at the position.

7) As I watch the Detroit vs. Packers game I'm reminded of how terrible the Lions are. This team continues to do the little things wrong. Turnovers in key spots, kickoffs out of bounds, dumb penalties, and the list goes on. If Detroit makes the playoffs I'll be surprised and if they win a playoff game before Swartz is fired I'll be shocked. This team in an embarrassment given the amount of talent they have.

Happy Turkey Day everyone! Enjoy the games!