I'll call this the "Yeah I said it!" column. Sometimes when I look at the landscape of the NFL and the moves teams make I sometimes have very definitive thoughts about the outcomes of said moves. So here are some bold predictions about current NFL situations that I feel very strongly about.
1) The Ravens will not win another superbowl with Joe Flacco as their starting QB:
Defense decimated, limited talent on offense except for the RB position, the Steelers are a better organization, Pats D will be scary good in 1-2 years, NFC is dominant, Ravens will come to resent the fact that they paid a QB with barely a 60% completion percentage all that money. Flacco is a champion because he's cool under pressure and has had a great D and running game behind him (and because the Broncos safety and 49ers special teams had momentary mental lapses). He'll not be worth the money the Ravens paid him in three years.
2) Seahawks vs. Niners will be the best rivalry in the NFL for the next three years:
How awesome is this?! Pete Carroll vs. Jim Harbaugh, pro style! These two teams are loaded with young talent and lead by two fantastic QBs. 9ers have a better organization, but Seahawks have a better QB. Both defenses will hurt you and your loved ones and both teams probably don't like each other that much; their head coaches sure don't. Both regular season games between SF and SE should be on MNF or SNF for the next half decade.
3) Cam Newton will never win a super bowl:
He's the Carmelo Anthony of the NFL. Great individual player, doesn't make teammates better. When a player coming into the league says he wants to be an "icon and an entertainer" then I check out, forever. Actual sports icons are too focused and self-aware to say something like that out loud because doing so wastes time in achieving the goal of being a transcendent player. Newton will put up numbers, but when things don't go his way he has and will continue to look to others before looking at himself for answers. Couple that with an organization that's nutty enough to sign two talented running backs to long term deals in a game that's increasingly becoming pass happy rather than shopping one back to stock pile draft picks and you've got the incompetent leading the self-deluded.
4) Adrian Peterson is the last great RB we will ever see:
Even before the NFL's new "head ducking" rule the writing was on the wall. The NFL is moving from a game of collisions to a game played in space. I'll miss the old NFL where players smash into each other and mouth pieces go flying, but the reality is human beings are just too big and fast to sustain any kind of quality of life playing football the traditional way. As such, running backs, as they are traditionally used, will find it increasingly difficult to find a place on a team. RBs will look more and more like Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin and less and less like Frank Gore and Trent Richardson. The best of these 'old school' backs, Adrian Peterson, is the last great (traditional) back we will see. I'll be surprised if Richardson cracks 8,000 yards rushing for his career.
5) Any team that drafts a QB in the first half of the first round of this draft will not make it past the first round of the playoffs with that QB as their starter:
A bit convoluted, but hear me out. These QBs aren't last year's QBs and everyone essentially knows that. Russell Wilson is one of those rare exceptions that come along every so often. The Seahawks lucked out in the same way that the Patriots lucked out with Brady; they got a super talented QB for cheap, something no team that picks a QB in the first 16 picks of this draft will be able to say. If a team is going to draft a QB early and he's not thought of as transcendent then they need to have both a strong supporting cast and an incumbent (or presumed) starter in place to relieve some of the added pressure their new signal caller will have (see Aaron Rodgers). Drafting any QB early in this draft will be a reach and teams that reach in the draft are desperate. Desperate teams lack vision or patience or both. This year's QBs, like all QBs, will struggle when they get a chance to start. Right now this year's prospects don't appear to have the talent to overcome such struggles on their own and if the supporting cast is poor then you've got a Blaine Gabbert situation; a QB that starts to believe he's a bust and plays with little confidence. Although it can be hard to pass on a QB when picking in the top of the draft it's so much more important to pick the right guy rather than picking the available guy at the moment.
6) Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings collectively will make a maximum of three pro bowls for the rest of their career:
I've talked a bit about this in early posts, but it boils down to the following:
1) They'll struggle to consistently beat double and triple coverage
2) They've got far less talented QBs throwing them the ball
3) They were let go by two of the top five best run organizations in football
But they're rich and feel wanted now so I guess that's something.
7) The following teams will not win or play in the Super Bowl this coming year:
And I'm going to list the teams that most would say have a shot and omit the teams (like the Bills, Cards, Raiders, Panthers) that most would say don't have a shot.
1) Falcons (weak defense)
2) Bucs (too young)
3) Saints (old defense)
4) Colts (too young)
5) Bengals (limited at QB)
6) Bears (transitioning D, head-case at QB)
7) Lions (Swartz has the emotional control of a 14 year old)
8) Redskins (too young, limited D, injury prone QB)
9) Cowboys (Jerry Jones)
10) Texans (limited at QB)
11) Seahawks (Pete Carroll's not detail oriented)
These are the teams that I think could play in the Super Bowl
1) 49ers
2) Broncos
3) Pats
4) Steelers
5) Packers
6) Giants
8) The Dallas Cowboys will never win a Super Bowl with Jerry Jones as their general manager:
This is not so bold, but it needs to be said. The man loves his team like Lenny loves soft things. I'm not saying that Jones is mentally disabled, but he is killing his franchise by not letting someone more talented than he make the personnel decisions for his team. Hopefully the league's newest Al Davis won't have to die before he relinquishes his control.
That's a wrap for today. Look for more bold predictions after the draft.
1) The Ravens will not win another superbowl with Joe Flacco as their starting QB:
Defense decimated, limited talent on offense except for the RB position, the Steelers are a better organization, Pats D will be scary good in 1-2 years, NFC is dominant, Ravens will come to resent the fact that they paid a QB with barely a 60% completion percentage all that money. Flacco is a champion because he's cool under pressure and has had a great D and running game behind him (and because the Broncos safety and 49ers special teams had momentary mental lapses). He'll not be worth the money the Ravens paid him in three years.
2) Seahawks vs. Niners will be the best rivalry in the NFL for the next three years:
How awesome is this?! Pete Carroll vs. Jim Harbaugh, pro style! These two teams are loaded with young talent and lead by two fantastic QBs. 9ers have a better organization, but Seahawks have a better QB. Both defenses will hurt you and your loved ones and both teams probably don't like each other that much; their head coaches sure don't. Both regular season games between SF and SE should be on MNF or SNF for the next half decade.
3) Cam Newton will never win a super bowl:
He's the Carmelo Anthony of the NFL. Great individual player, doesn't make teammates better. When a player coming into the league says he wants to be an "icon and an entertainer" then I check out, forever. Actual sports icons are too focused and self-aware to say something like that out loud because doing so wastes time in achieving the goal of being a transcendent player. Newton will put up numbers, but when things don't go his way he has and will continue to look to others before looking at himself for answers. Couple that with an organization that's nutty enough to sign two talented running backs to long term deals in a game that's increasingly becoming pass happy rather than shopping one back to stock pile draft picks and you've got the incompetent leading the self-deluded.
4) Adrian Peterson is the last great RB we will ever see:
Even before the NFL's new "head ducking" rule the writing was on the wall. The NFL is moving from a game of collisions to a game played in space. I'll miss the old NFL where players smash into each other and mouth pieces go flying, but the reality is human beings are just too big and fast to sustain any kind of quality of life playing football the traditional way. As such, running backs, as they are traditionally used, will find it increasingly difficult to find a place on a team. RBs will look more and more like Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin and less and less like Frank Gore and Trent Richardson. The best of these 'old school' backs, Adrian Peterson, is the last great (traditional) back we will see. I'll be surprised if Richardson cracks 8,000 yards rushing for his career.
5) Any team that drafts a QB in the first half of the first round of this draft will not make it past the first round of the playoffs with that QB as their starter:
A bit convoluted, but hear me out. These QBs aren't last year's QBs and everyone essentially knows that. Russell Wilson is one of those rare exceptions that come along every so often. The Seahawks lucked out in the same way that the Patriots lucked out with Brady; they got a super talented QB for cheap, something no team that picks a QB in the first 16 picks of this draft will be able to say. If a team is going to draft a QB early and he's not thought of as transcendent then they need to have both a strong supporting cast and an incumbent (or presumed) starter in place to relieve some of the added pressure their new signal caller will have (see Aaron Rodgers). Drafting any QB early in this draft will be a reach and teams that reach in the draft are desperate. Desperate teams lack vision or patience or both. This year's QBs, like all QBs, will struggle when they get a chance to start. Right now this year's prospects don't appear to have the talent to overcome such struggles on their own and if the supporting cast is poor then you've got a Blaine Gabbert situation; a QB that starts to believe he's a bust and plays with little confidence. Although it can be hard to pass on a QB when picking in the top of the draft it's so much more important to pick the right guy rather than picking the available guy at the moment.
6) Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings collectively will make a maximum of three pro bowls for the rest of their career:
I've talked a bit about this in early posts, but it boils down to the following:
1) They'll struggle to consistently beat double and triple coverage
2) They've got far less talented QBs throwing them the ball
3) They were let go by two of the top five best run organizations in football
But they're rich and feel wanted now so I guess that's something.
7) The following teams will not win or play in the Super Bowl this coming year:
And I'm going to list the teams that most would say have a shot and omit the teams (like the Bills, Cards, Raiders, Panthers) that most would say don't have a shot.
1) Falcons (weak defense)
2) Bucs (too young)
3) Saints (old defense)
4) Colts (too young)
5) Bengals (limited at QB)
6) Bears (transitioning D, head-case at QB)
7) Lions (Swartz has the emotional control of a 14 year old)
8) Redskins (too young, limited D, injury prone QB)
9) Cowboys (Jerry Jones)
10) Texans (limited at QB)
11) Seahawks (Pete Carroll's not detail oriented)
These are the teams that I think could play in the Super Bowl
1) 49ers
2) Broncos
3) Pats
4) Steelers
5) Packers
6) Giants
8) The Dallas Cowboys will never win a Super Bowl with Jerry Jones as their general manager:
This is not so bold, but it needs to be said. The man loves his team like Lenny loves soft things. I'm not saying that Jones is mentally disabled, but he is killing his franchise by not letting someone more talented than he make the personnel decisions for his team. Hopefully the league's newest Al Davis won't have to die before he relinquishes his control.
That's a wrap for today. Look for more bold predictions after the draft.
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