2014 Offseason News and Notes

A lot has happened in the month after the super bowl. There's a lot to talk about, but here are my top stories:

Combine QBs
None of the top prospects in this draft look to be franchise guys in my opinion. Bridgewater seems to be the most polished, but he doesn't have elite size or arm talent. Bortles is a project and Manziel is a project plus some. All three will likely go in the first round and it's very possible that Manziel goes first. Perhaps the Texas A&M QB will prove doubters wrong, but I'm highly doubtful. He's small and doesn't have good on or off field discipline. Manziel is not Russell Wilson and it's kind of idiotic to make a comparison between the two. Wilson's discipline and poise are light years ahead of Manziel not to mention Wilson is thicker and throws a much better ball. Read this and then tell me Johnny Manziel is a franchise QB. Exactly.

Teams in need of a QB need to focus on other priorities in the first round. Taking a QB in the first round means you think he can come in day one and lead your team for the next decade. If Colin Kaepernick, who's talent far exceeds any of these prospects, wasn't a good enough prospect to be taken in the first round then that's all you need to know.

Michael Sam
What a historic event Sam's announcement has been. I applaud his courage and resolve to come out before the draft and to help facilitate a conservation that's long overdue in sports and football. Personally I think those who are bothered by Sam's sexual orientation need to grow up and shut up. So y'all only want to be able to walk around naked with straight men? Hmm... But I digress. I am impressed by Michael Sam the person, but not by Michael Sam the football player. During the combine we saw a lack of explosion and athleticism that one would want to see from a dominant SEC player. If Sam doesn't get drafted, and he may not, it will be unfortunate because I think the league needs more people like him, but his mediocre combine performance may scare teams away.

The Browns
Are completely lost. Trent Richardson is very glad to have been traded and if I'm a player on that team I cannot feel good about my future in Cleveland. Perhaps the team's latest struggles to appear like they have some sense of direction will prompt fans to stop attending games. The loyalty of the fan base is one big reason why this team has been so terrible for so long. Cleveland fans are like the abused spouse who is convinced that their lover really does care about them despite reality. If you stop going to games Browns fans the owner will change. If I'm a top prospect and get drafted by the Browns I sign the shortest contract possible and bolt as soon as I can.

Clowney's 40
Who gives a flying fugg? Individual defensive lineman are overrated. Robert Quinn is probably the most talented young end in the game and despite having a "monster" season averaged 1.2 sacks per game on a team that finished last in their division. Having a dominant D line means far more than having one dominant player. Clowney is no doubt a monster, but we knew that. Is he Lawrence Taylor? Probably not. Is he Julius Peppers? Maybe, but how many championships did Peppers lead his team to? Reggie White only has one ring as does Strahan and Sapp. Let's not get carried away here. Clowney is a rare athlete, but don't expect him to lead a team to a championship.

Sammy Watkins
I'd take Watkins over Clowney if I had the choice. Yup, you heard me.

Harbaugh and the Niners
The stories this off season about Harbaugh being shopped to the Browns are worrisome. I'm not sure what exactly is going on, but you never want a story involving upper management to go public. Harbaugh has a reputation for being difficult to deal with and it seems clear that the frustrations with the Niners not being able to bring home a title is causing some friction. The Niners would probably be crazy to not offer Harbaugh a huge contract simply because they don't have a better option as a head coach. Whether or not Harbaugh has the type of longevity that Walsh or Belichick has remains to be seen.

Riley Cooper
I was a bit surprised with this resigning. I hope Cooper is making progress with his issues surrounding race, but there's no way I'd resign him as a GM. If for nothing else than to make an example of a guy that expresses some deeply problematic attitudes that involve the majority of players in the NFL. Perhaps the Eagles can justify resigning Cooper as strictly a business decision, rewarding a player for a good season, but usually decision made in that type of vacuum don't pay dividends.

The N-word
I hate the word and think it shouldn't be used by anyone. I am one of those black people that grew up in a home that never used the word and only heard it when I went to visit family in the south. I get that people grow up using in a different context and am all to aware of it's prevalence in music. The use of the N-word by some groups of people an not others is a hornets nest of controversy that I personally think can be avoided if we all just stop using it. All that being said I think the ban of the N-word by the NFL is stupid. It's like trying to legislate against premarital sex (something I have no problem with). The diminished use of the N-word in our society has to come from the bottom up, not the top down. Better to let individual teams and locker rooms police this issue than a governing body.

Okay, that's all for now folks. Look for an article at least each month during the offseason.

Super Bowl Recap

I suffer from Super Bowl fatigue I recently discovered. All of the analysis, breakdowns, media coverage, and hype sometimes overwhelms my ability to enjoy a game that's so anticlimactic. This game, according to many, was supposed to be an epic battle of the best offense vs. the best defense. It wasn't. I actually stopped watching the game with 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter. It was ugly. Denver simply wasn't ready for the physical avalanche they encountered in New Jersey. All that being said I have a few takeaways from a game that ended up feeling like a Tyson fight.

1) Seattle's D is all time great. I'm talking '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 70's Steelers great. The fact that this team's schemes are not that sophisticated speaks to their physical talent and intelligence. This squad is incredibly intimidating and they simply make smart plays at every level of the defense. If they can keep the core of this defense together then it's going to be a tough road for NFC teams for the next five years.

2) This was not your typical Peyton playoff under performance. Peyton is an all timer, one of the best ever. He simply ran into the best defense in a generation with an offensive line that couldn't protect him and only one receiver that could get open consistently. Peyton played poorly, but he this poor performance was more about a total team failure than him throwing a crucial pick in a close game. When formulating a list of the all time greats I think you have to mention Montana, Brady, and Elway before you talk about Peyton. Manning is Marino with a ring.

3) Russell Wilson should have been MVP. Malcolm Smith played great, but if had not been for pick-6, a play that 90% of the Seattle D could have made, Wilson would have been the guy. Personally, I think Super Bowl MVPs are kind of pointless and I don't think Wilson will lose any sleep over not getting the award, but I do find it interesting how much of public and analysts opinion about this defense, the Ds performance in this game notwithstanding, influenced who got the MVP. Every other Super Bowl winning QB with stats like Wilson's has won the award. He was superb on third down like he's been all year, extending plays that give his offense more time on the field. The future of Seattle's success lies more with Wilson than with that amazing defense.

4) Seattle made Johnny Manziel a lot of money. Pocket QB's simply cannot succeed against a defense like Seattle's. Right now this defense is too good to give up big plays from set plays. Pocket QBs rely on timing and scheme more than mobile QBs and when a defense can diagnose quickly and make incredible physical plays guys like Manning, Brees, and Brady are at a serious disadvantage. Mobile guys like Luck, Kaep, and Cam have the ability to extend plays beyond what they've been designed to do and that's where any defense, even one as great as Seattle's breaks down. Everyone, if they aren't already, will begin to manage their personnel to model Seattle's team. Most teams will fail because it's really hard to pull off what Seattle has done, pro bowl talent at rookie free agent prices. Still, teams now know that unless they have a QB that can extend plays they're not going to beat teams like Seattle, San Fran, or Carolina. Manziel is seen as a great improvisor and while I wouldn't draft him as my franchise QB other teams will look at how Manziel gave Alabama trouble and think they'll at least have a shot at beating the best NFL defenses with a guy that can scramble when plays break down. Peyton only managing one TD in this game scares a lot of GMs who've been resistant to the idea of a mobile QB.

It was an interesting season that should have had a more exciting final game. It seems a new era of football is upon us as veteran wisdom is outmatched by young talent. I'm happy about that because it represents progress. Manning is a great one and will certainly be in the mix next season, but the focus on what wins in this league is/has shifted I think. There are a ton of topics to discuss during the offseason so check back with me as things progress. Next stop, the combine!

New Coaches

This is the other side of the late NFL season and the only more important component of the the game besides NFL QB is the head coach. This time of year is always busy with bad teams making big moves. The right head coach is essential for any time with championship aspirations, but that's only one half of the story. Teams also need that coach/staff to have the right QB. All of the coaches who've been fired thus far either failed to find the right QB or failed to produce with a good QB. Let's break down each team's decision to get ride of their head guy and analyze where they stand now.

Detroit Lions
Out: Jim Schwartz
In: Jim Caldwell
Fire: Strongly agree
Hire: Somewhat agree
It's no secret that I agree with the firing. Schwartz's team wasn't disciplined and Stafford doesn't appear to be making the progress a franchise QB needs to make. This team got worse as the season progressed and that's usually and indication of a squad that doesn't believe in their coach and/or his strategy. I think the Lions hired Caldwell because he's the polar opposite of Schwartz from a personality standpoint. Caldwell is cerebral, quiet, and disciplined, which is what this team needs. His head coaching skills are still in question given his last year in Indy. I'm glad Caldwell got another shot as the head guy, but I'm a little skeptical with him as the head guy. Either way the Lions are probably going to be a better team at the end of the 2015 season.

Minnesota Vikings
Out: Lesley Frazier
In: Mike Zimmer
Fire: Agree
Hire: Strongly agree
Frazier is a good coach who didn't find the right QB. You could see this day coming the moment the Vikes selected Christian Ponder 12th overall. I don't know that Frazier gets another shot at a head coaching gig, but he certainly should be a DC again. Mike Zimmer is a different personality from Frazier and his more confrontational style might be what this team needs, but Zimmer can't be more Schwartz than Harbaugh if this is going to work. Getting Norv Turner to be the OC is huge for Zimmer. Turner knows how to coordinate an offense and will get a lot out of this roster. The only thing left for Zimmer to do is get the right QB. There's no need to rush this decision because Zimmer should have at least two full years under his belt before there's any "Hot Seat" talk. Jameis Winston doesn't come out until 2015 and if the Vikings are in a position to draft him Zimmer could be in Minny of the next decade.

Tennessee Titans
Out: Mike Munchak
In: Ken Whisenhunt
Fire: Disagree
Hire: Strongly agree
The Titans played hard for Munchak and so I don't know that I would have fired him. On the other hand Munchak did draft Locker with the 8th overall pick in 2011. Locker was a project and it doesn't help that 2nd round project QB Colin Kaepernick has played in a Super Bowl and an NFC championship game the past two seasons. Like Frazier, Munchak chose wrong with his QB and it ultimately cost him his job. I would have given Munchak another year. Whisenhunt can coach and as long as he gets the right QB he'll be a great hire. It's a bit puzzling that Whisenhunt chose Tennessee over Detroit, but when you look at the QB competition in the AFC South vs. the NFC North the decision makes more sense. Whisenhunt's biggest competition in the division will likely be the Colts and to make the playoffs each year he'll probably only need to beat them once. In other words the Titans have a relatively short distance to climb on a relatively small hill.

Washington
Out: Mike Shanahan
In: Jay Gruden
Fire: Strongly agree
Hire: Neutral
Washington's issues begin with their incompetent owner. Dan Snyder is the owner so I'll reserve judgment on his 8th head coach since buying the team until I see how his relationship with Gruden plays out. Gruden's coming from a roster with a lot of weapons to a roster with essentially one. We're going to see if the younger Gruden is as creative as his brother very quickly. Keeping Haslett as DC was smart because there's a lot of roster work to do with this team. This team needs a culture change as much as it needs a roster overhaul. Jay Gruden doesn't strike me as the kind of person to usher in that kind of change. Only time will tell.

Houston Texans
Out: Gary Kubiack
In: Bill O'Brien
Fire: Strongly Agree
Hire Strongly Agree
Kubiack was played out and probably proved that he's not head coaching material. This team has a good GM who can spot talent and they've just hired what seems to be a steady personality at head coach. Bill O'Brien did a fantastic job stabilizing Penn State's program and has a reputation for being good with QBs. The Texans are one franchise QB and a full season's experience from being competitive in the AFC South again. They've better roster than the Colts and though they'll probably never draft a QB on Luck's level their supporting cast will keep them in games against Indy. Great hire.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Out: Greg Schiano
In: Lovie Smith
Fire: Somewhat Agree
Hire: Agree
Schiano didn't handle the situation well with Josh Freeman. Too much got out about what went down and what did get out seemed clumsily handled and questionably professional. That's a big, Jim Schwatz-esqe, red flag. On the other hand Schiano's team played well and played hard once they settled on Mike Glennon. On the other other hand, Mike Glennon doesn't strike me as a franchise QB even though he played above expectations. Lovie inherits a great young defense and will get the most out of them. What will make the difference for Smith in his second head coaching gig is if he can have more success on the offensive side of the ball than he did in Chicago. I think Smith is an underrated coach considering he got to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman as his QB. If Lovie gets a franchise QB things will be very competitive in the NFC South

Cleveland Browns
Out: Rob Chudzinski
In: TBD
Fire: Somewhat agree
Hire: TBD
Something's very off if a team fires a coach after one year and like a bad relationship both sides are usually culpable to some degree. The Browns are not a well run organization, but they have a new owner that's still going through some growing pains it seems. They haven't found their coach yet and that's okay, for now. I'd be a little worried that several targets have withdrawn their name from consideration, but it's probably good that the Browns take their time to hire a coach. I'm always skeptical of bad teams that hire "big names" because that generally means they're relying reputation rather than their own judgement. Franchise coaches are like franchise QBs, they're rare and they're rarely let go by a team that hires/drafts one. Sometimes you can see franchise coaches coming (Harbaugh is the latest example), but most of the time franchise coaches are either unknown or unproven. Bad teams get better by having mostly boring off seasons, by drafting and hiring staff most people haven't heard of, don't know much about, or don't pay much attention to.


I'll keep on eye on the Browns and let you know what I think about whomever they hire when it happens. Thanks for stopping by!

Championship Week Rewind

Am I bitter as hell about how things ended for my Niners? Hells yes! But I'll try to be objective on this post and tell you what I think. Let's start with the first game.

Broncos vs. Pats
I got this one right and it's not that hard to figure out why. The Broncos were the better team and they played like it. It's really that simple. The Pats played well and played hard and in the end didn't have the talent to make the necessary plays to pull ahead. The Broncos were well balanced and pretty conservative throughout and their defense didn't give up the big play. If the Patriots had been healthy I think this game would have gone to them simply because the Broncos only managed a ten point margin of victory against a depleted roster. Nonetheless the Broncos were the best team in the AFC and they earned the right to go to the Super Bowl.

Seahawks vs. 49ers
I said that this game would come down to how many mistakes Kaepernick made and how well the 49ers bottled up Beast Mode. Kaep had two costly turnovers before the final interception and Lynch got loose in the second half. There's your ball game. Game management was also a big factor and for the life of me I cannot understand why Harbaugh didn't call a time out before the ill-fated pass into the end zone that ended in a pick. The 49ers had two time outs inside the 20 with 40+ seconds left. Why not call a time out, draw up two or three plays, and run your offense. They could have attacked the middle of the field and still could have stopped the clock with their last time out. I don't get it, but then again I'm not an NFL head coach, let alone one as good as Harbaugh.

Kaepernick has a ways to go with his game; primarily his pocket presence. He definitely showed signs of improvement with his accuracy on the run and touch throwing the ball, but he still struggles making multiple reads and anticipating the rush. Kaep's had an amazing playoff run, again, and the future is very bright for this young man. He came up short after his third road playoff game in the toughest place to play in the NFL against the number one defense in the league. The guy is really good and his ceiling is as high as it gets. If Kaep can make the strides that Cam Newton in his third year then we'll be seeing a lot of the Niners' QB in the post season.

Bowman's injury was about as tough as it gets. You never want to see a great player, one who consistently makes big plays in big games, go out like that late in the season. ACL injuries are nothing to scoff at, but I don't see any reason not to expect Bowman to return to pro bowl form by late season next year. It's significant set-back for the team going into next year, but they'll be in the mix in late December.

The referees were terrible and I think the NFL has a potentially serious problem with how many calls have been missed throughout the year. I normally don't like to harp on refs because they have a very tough job and despite what most people say they rarely decide the outcome of games. They came close in this game with the missed strip/recovery of Bowman at the goal line and the running into the kicker that should have been roughing, but despite that the 49ers had the ball inside the 20 with 40+ seconds and could have won the game. All that being said, refs cannot miss those type of calls in big games. The NFL needs to hire these guys full time so that they can give the job their full attention.

This is how I feel about Richard Sherman . I'm not a fan the guy, but that's mainly because he's gotten in the way of my favorite team going to the Super Bowl. Richard Sherman is the best corner in the league, period. Is he a bit of an ass when he wins? Sure, but he backs up his talk. Could he be more mature about how he reacts to his detractors? Of course, but he's 25, he's the best at what he does, and has overcome a lot to get to where he is. Do I think his words about Crabtree were over the top? Yup, but consider the circumstances. If you're honest with yourself you'll at least recognize that people aren't their most diplomatic right after an emotional victory, especially at the age of 25, full of adrenaline with 60,000+ thousand fans screaming with joy because of a thing you just did. The guy is truly a unique person and has a rare attitude towards competition. I think as time goes on Sherman will mellow a bit because that's what usually happens to people as they age, but he certainly doesn't have to and if he doesn't that's okay. The public's reaction to Sherman says more about us than it does him. He's great, he knows it, he's not shy to let you know it, and so far no one has been able to stop him.

I'll be back with a proper Super Bowl preview, but for now here are my initial thoughts on the upcoming game.

Seahawks vs. Broncos a.k.a. the Puff-puff-pass Bowl
1) If the weather is bad, meaning wind and some kind of precipitation or extreme cold, then the I don't see the Broncos winning this game.
2) Sherman against Thomas should be a great matchup. Thomas struggled against Talib when the Pats corner was healthy, so you have to give the early advantage to Sherman. I wonder if Sherman thinks Thomas is a mediocre receiver like Crabtree?
3) Don't be surprised if Peyton carves this secondary up. I've heard multiple times that the Seahawks' defense is not a complex scheme and that they rely on their exceptional route recognition and athletic ability to make plays. That will make Peyton's film study that much easier and thus he'll be that much more comfortable come game time. A comfy Peyton is bad news for the Legion of Boom.
4) Percy Harvin should scare the crap out of the Broncos. He'll be healthy and he is a nightmare for a depleted Broncos secondary. If he gets going or even gets significant attention then this mostly one dimensional offense becomes a two headed Harvin and Lynch beast mode monster. The Broncos' D can't hang with that.
5) This is the last Super Bowl Peyton Manning plays in. New England's a better team when healthy, the Colts are getting better every offseason, and the Ravens and Steelers aren't going anywhere. Enjoy this moment in NFL history, because it will be just that all too soon.

Championship Week!

What a slate of games we have this week! I can't remember being this excited to watch the AFC and NFC championship games. Last week went mostly as predicted and what we've ended up with are the four best teams in the league this year. The past couple of years we've ended up a mix of the best teams from the year and the hottest teams from the late season. I personally prefer to see the best teams from the year. Let's break down the games.

Pats vs. Broncos
Winner: Broncos
The bottom line here is the Broncos are a better team on paper and are playing at home. Belichick is a coaching maestro. It's hard to imagine how this team has won the games it's won up to this point and if they pull off the upset I'll be even more amazed. The Broncos and Peyton have the majority of the pressure on them, but they're capable of overcoming this pressure based solely on their talent advantage. Peyton doesn't play well in high pressure situations and Brady is playing a familiar role of underdog. That should give anyone picking this game pause. I think this ends up being a relatively high scoring game because the Broncos will have trouble defending the pass and the Patriot's defense isn't that good. Like last week, if Brady comes out hot and Peyton struggles this game could be over quickly. This will likely be the last time we see a Brady/Manning match up of this magnitude so enjoy!

49ers vs. Seahawks
Winner: 49ers
I think I'm primarily picking the Niners because they're my favorite team. The Niners are a more balanced team, they're more battle tested, and they have a bigger chip on their shoulder than the Seahawks. This game will come down to two things, the twelfth man and Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers' game management on offense is puzzling at times. Kaepernick consistently mismanages the clock and all too often players are not quite sure how to line up. Under the high stress conditions of playing in Seattle those little mistakes will be amplified. The 49ers cannot afford to get behind on the play clock or behind on downs. Kaepernick also has to minimize the mistakes. He's going to make at least one and so far he's gotten lucky with two bad throws that should have ended the 49ers' season. Seattle will force the bad play, but if the Niners can keep that bad play from turning into a touchdown then it will be a win. Seattle's biggest weakness is their passing game, which has been anemic of late. I think the poor play of Russell Wilson is overstated and I think he makes some plays today that we haven't seen from him in the playoffs. Percy Harvin isn't playing in this game, which is a huge blow, but Wilson didn't need Harvin to beat the Niners early in the season. If Lynch gets going then Seattle will be nearly impossible to beat because it'll take pressure off of Wilson to make plays consistently down the field. Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks have got to keep the edges of the pocket secure to prevent Wilson from scrambling and making plays outside the pocket. Keep an eye on the third downs early in this game. Last week the Niners were excellent on third down, mainly because those downs were less than 6 yards. Third down will be the difference in this game because first downs against these great defenses will be at a premium. Should be one helluva game!

Divisional Playoffs

What a set of games! Let's review and then look forward to this weekend.

Chiefs vs. Colts
Got this one right, but I was sweating at the half. Andrew Luck is simply amazing. He was the difference in this game, that and the ridiculous number of injuries the Chiefs had. The Colts are only scratching the surface...

Saints vs. Eagles
I actually wasn't able to watch this game, but I think the better team won. It was cold, but the weather was good enough for Brees and Payton to do their thing late in the game. Much like Luck, Chip Kelly and his system should scare the crap out of the competition because he's just that good. The Eagles are far ahead of where I thought they'd be. Look out in 2014!

Chargers vs. Bengals
I didn't get this one right, but I'm not surprised why. Andy Dalton doesn't appear to be a good enough QB to take this team to a championship. 1 TD and 6 pics in 3 playoff games are terrible numbers. The Chargers played well enough and took advantage of Dalton and a team that doesn't have the best psychology in crisis. A hard game to watch.

49ers vs. Packers
I was a wreck after this game, but glad my favorite team won. The 49ers are simply a better team than the Packers and ultimately the physical Niners defense played lights out and Kaepernick made enough plays. I didn't love Harbaugh's play calling (not running the ball), but in the end the better team won.

Divisional Round

Saints vs. Seahawks
Winner: Seachickens
I think this game will be truly fascinating to watch. The Saints are heavily emotionally invested in this game given the way Seattle has played them in the past. The questions will be are the Seahawks focused enough to take the Saints seriously and have the Saints made enough adjustments to stifle one of the most physical teams in the league. Ultimately I think the home field advantage and the physicality of the Seahawks overwhelms the Saints and the schemes they come up with. Don't be surprised if the Seahawks are down at the half though. The Saints are going to come with some new tricks up their sleeve, but Pete Carroll makes great half time adjustments on defense and Russell Wilson's psychology in crisis is second only to Brady and Luck.

Colts vs. Pats
Winner: Pats
If you had to watch only one playoff game this weekend (a painful proposition) I'd pick this one. Why? Because these two QBs are as good as it gets in pro football. Both of these rosters are beat up and that puts even more pressure on the QBs. I think this game could hinge on which team runs the ball more effectively. The Colts cannot commit as many turnovers as they did last week and win, but the Pats margin for errors isn't that much wider. An effective running game will allow either team to control the number of snaps the other QB gets. Belichick is a mastermind, but he's never been this limited from a personnel standpoint so I think the Colts can make some plays. In the end I think the Pats make fewer mistakes and one or two more plays to win a close game.

49ers vs. Panthers
Winner: 49ers
Grab the smelling salt because this game is going to be a knockout. Both of these defenses are very physical and both have QBs that can make plays outside the pocket. The 49ers have big game experience and are hungry for revenge. They're also a healthier team from the one the Panthers faced earlier in the season. QBs in their first playoff game aren't usually great, and the Panthers don't have a tradition of playoff excellence, which can help mitigate the playoff learning curve. The Panthers do have the most physically gifted QB the NFL has ever seen, a QB for whom things are really clicking upstairs. I'm going to be watch Cam as much as I can before kick off because I want to see if the maturity he's demonstrated this season continues. Will the Panthers be satisfied with their spectacular end to the regular season? The 49ers couldn't care less about their season ending winning streak and aren't celebrating anything. If Cam and Panthers are too celebratory before things even kick off then I think they get steam rolled. If not, then I think the Panthers' limitations on offense prevent them from keeping up with a Niners team that makes 2-4 more big plays than them. This game could be one sided if the Panthers don't have their minds right.

Chargers vs. Broncos
Winner: Broncos
This game will go as Peyton goes. The Broncos should win this game comfortably, but Manning plays his best in the regular season not the postseason. I think this game could end up being a track meet because Philip Rivers won't be under duress with Von Miller out. This is the type of game the Chargers trash talking QB loves, one where he's supposed to lose to the better team or better QB. The Broncos have got to control the Chargers' running game and make them one dimensional. The mile-high defense is very vulnerable and the Chargers have all the confidence in the world after stealing a win in week 15. If the Broncos offense sputters in the first quarter then they're in trouble. Manning will need things to be just so and the longer the Chargers frustrate him the worse he'll play. Broncos big if they score two TDs in the first half.

If I'm right about these picks then we're in for one hell of a championship weekend! Enjoy the games.

Offseason Preview: AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck needs help, but he doesn't need much. He's already taken this team to back-to-back playoffs despite having one of the worst playoff rosters we've ever seen. The Colts need to pay attention to how the Broncos and Dolphins managed their legendary QBs and how the Patriots are managing theirs. If the Colts can give Luck a solid o-line and just one dynamic outside receiver (I'd trade two 2nd round picks and next year's 3rd to the Browns for Josh Gordon) then the Colts would be my pick for AFC champion for the next five years. The defense needs to be improved along the front, but that's not as urgent as their offensive needs. The Colts know what they're doing and hopefully won't depend too much on their star QB to the detriment of signing other offensive talent. Andrew Luck is better than what I thought he'd be and if the Colts manage well fans will mention his name before they mention Peyton. Yup, I said it!

Houston Texans

It's all about the head coach. Rumor has it current Penn State coach, Bill O'Brien, is the top candidate at the moment. If that's the case then I think the Texans will be set at the coaching position. Next, the Texans need a QB and if O'Brien is their head coach they'll get a good one in 2014. The rest is gravy as far as I'm concerned. This roster is loaded, and will only need minor tweaking to be competitive. Andre Johnson is still dominant and DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best young receivers in the game. I doesn't look like Ben Tate will be back (oh well) and Arian Foster is aging though he's special when healthy. Depth along the offensive line and linebacker would be my focus after getting the right coach and QB. This team is going to struggle to compete with Luck and the Colts and probably won't make headway in 2014. Their focus needs to be making sure they're young and dynamic on defense and can grind out games when necessary. With the right leadership Texans vs. Colts could be Steelers vs. Ravens of the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

I think they've got the right coach in Nashville. This team plays hard every week and is a tough out. Jake Locker isn't the guy, but I'm not sure they can get a franchise QB in this year's draft at the 11th pick. Giving Locker another year to develop won't be the worst thing in the world and if the Titans get some dynamic playmakers on the outside (Marquise Lee from USC maybe) it'll be that much easier to move on if Locker struggles again in 2014. Resigning Kenny Britt would be a mistake if he's still not buying in. Kendall Wright and Nate Washington are great number 2 receivers, but this team needs that dynamic outside playmaker. The defense is solid though they could use a rangy MLB a la Patrick Willis or Navarro Bowman. Chris Johnson seems to be regaining his MVP form, but I doubt he makes another pro bowl in his career. The Titans are in a tough spot. They're like that family who's trying to send their kid to college, but earn too much to qualify for lots of financial aid. This team is okay and in a division where they need to make a lot a big moves to compete they're kind of hamstrung by the current make-up of their team.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The only team in worse shape in the NFL than the Oakland Raiders is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like the Titans I think the Jags have the right coach, an okay defense, and a capable backup QB, but that's about it. This team needs a QB, but it absolutely cannot afford to miss after taking Blaine Gabbert. Luckily there are a lot of teams that need a franchise QB this year, which offers an opportunity for the Jags to trade out of the number 3 slot and stock pile picks. I think Teddy Bridgewater, if he comes out, is the only franchise QB worth taking in the first round this coming May. He'll be gone by pick 3 so if I were the Jags I'd trade with whatever sucker team gets desperate for a QB early. Chad Henne isn't taking this team to a division title, and neither would any rookie QB outside of Andrew Luck with this roster. The Jags would do well to have boring drafts for the next two to three years, build their offensive and defensive fronts, find some dynamic receivers, and look for a replacement for MJD. Chances are Jones-Drew is going to ask for money north of what Steven Jackson got from the Falcons. MJD is a great pro and a dynamic and stabilizing force for the franchise. I'd probably resign him to a two or three year deal if the numbers were right. I wouldn't want his contract to prevent me from signing a top free agent if the opportunity arose. As for Justin Blackmon I'd seriously consider trading him if the right offer came along. This team is dying in Jacksonville and hopefully will find a better fit in a city that can support the franchise. Otherwise it's going to be hell trying to get free agents to come and this coaching staff can't compete with Houston and Indy through the draft alone.