This is the other side of the late NFL season and the only more important component of the the game besides NFL QB is the head coach. This time of year is always busy with bad teams making big moves. The right head coach is essential for any time with championship aspirations, but that's only one half of the story. Teams also need that coach/staff to have the right QB. All of the coaches who've been fired thus far either failed to find the right QB or failed to produce with a good QB. Let's break down each team's decision to get ride of their head guy and analyze where they stand now.
Detroit Lions
Out: Jim Schwartz
In: Jim Caldwell
Fire: Strongly agree
Hire: Somewhat agree
It's no secret that I agree with the firing. Schwartz's team wasn't disciplined and Stafford doesn't appear to be making the progress a franchise QB needs to make. This team got worse as the season progressed and that's usually and indication of a squad that doesn't believe in their coach and/or his strategy. I think the Lions hired Caldwell because he's the polar opposite of Schwartz from a personality standpoint. Caldwell is cerebral, quiet, and disciplined, which is what this team needs. His head coaching skills are still in question given his last year in Indy. I'm glad Caldwell got another shot as the head guy, but I'm a little skeptical with him as the head guy. Either way the Lions are probably going to be a better team at the end of the 2015 season.
Minnesota Vikings
Out: Lesley Frazier
In: Mike Zimmer
Fire: Agree
Hire: Strongly agree
Frazier is a good coach who didn't find the right QB. You could see this day coming the moment the Vikes selected Christian Ponder 12th overall. I don't know that Frazier gets another shot at a head coaching gig, but he certainly should be a DC again. Mike Zimmer is a different personality from Frazier and his more confrontational style might be what this team needs, but Zimmer can't be more Schwartz than Harbaugh if this is going to work. Getting Norv Turner to be the OC is huge for Zimmer. Turner knows how to coordinate an offense and will get a lot out of this roster. The only thing left for Zimmer to do is get the right QB. There's no need to rush this decision because Zimmer should have at least two full years under his belt before there's any "Hot Seat" talk. Jameis Winston doesn't come out until 2015 and if the Vikings are in a position to draft him Zimmer could be in Minny of the next decade.
Tennessee Titans
Out: Mike Munchak
In: Ken Whisenhunt
Fire: Disagree
Hire: Strongly agree
The Titans played hard for Munchak and so I don't know that I would have fired him. On the other hand Munchak did draft Locker with the 8th overall pick in 2011. Locker was a project and it doesn't help that 2nd round project QB Colin Kaepernick has played in a Super Bowl and an NFC championship game the past two seasons. Like Frazier, Munchak chose wrong with his QB and it ultimately cost him his job. I would have given Munchak another year. Whisenhunt can coach and as long as he gets the right QB he'll be a great hire. It's a bit puzzling that Whisenhunt chose Tennessee over Detroit, but when you look at the QB competition in the AFC South vs. the NFC North the decision makes more sense. Whisenhunt's biggest competition in the division will likely be the Colts and to make the playoffs each year he'll probably only need to beat them once. In other words the Titans have a relatively short distance to climb on a relatively small hill.
Washington
Out: Mike Shanahan
In: Jay Gruden
Fire: Strongly agree
Hire: Neutral
Washington's issues begin with their incompetent owner. Dan Snyder is the owner so I'll reserve judgment on his 8th head coach since buying the team until I see how his relationship with Gruden plays out. Gruden's coming from a roster with a lot of weapons to a roster with essentially one. We're going to see if the younger Gruden is as creative as his brother very quickly. Keeping Haslett as DC was smart because there's a lot of roster work to do with this team. This team needs a culture change as much as it needs a roster overhaul. Jay Gruden doesn't strike me as the kind of person to usher in that kind of change. Only time will tell.
Houston Texans
Out: Gary Kubiack
In: Bill O'Brien
Fire: Strongly Agree
Hire Strongly Agree
Kubiack was played out and probably proved that he's not head coaching material. This team has a good GM who can spot talent and they've just hired what seems to be a steady personality at head coach. Bill O'Brien did a fantastic job stabilizing Penn State's program and has a reputation for being good with QBs. The Texans are one franchise QB and a full season's experience from being competitive in the AFC South again. They've better roster than the Colts and though they'll probably never draft a QB on Luck's level their supporting cast will keep them in games against Indy. Great hire.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Out: Greg Schiano
In: Lovie Smith
Fire: Somewhat Agree
Hire: Agree
Schiano didn't handle the situation well with Josh Freeman. Too much got out about what went down and what did get out seemed clumsily handled and questionably professional. That's a big, Jim Schwatz-esqe, red flag. On the other hand Schiano's team played well and played hard once they settled on Mike Glennon. On the other other hand, Mike Glennon doesn't strike me as a franchise QB even though he played above expectations. Lovie inherits a great young defense and will get the most out of them. What will make the difference for Smith in his second head coaching gig is if he can have more success on the offensive side of the ball than he did in Chicago. I think Smith is an underrated coach considering he got to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman as his QB. If Lovie gets a franchise QB things will be very competitive in the NFC South
Cleveland Browns
Out: Rob Chudzinski
In: TBD
Fire: Somewhat agree
Hire: TBD
Something's very off if a team fires a coach after one year and like a bad relationship both sides are usually culpable to some degree. The Browns are not a well run organization, but they have a new owner that's still going through some growing pains it seems. They haven't found their coach yet and that's okay, for now. I'd be a little worried that several targets have withdrawn their name from consideration, but it's probably good that the Browns take their time to hire a coach. I'm always skeptical of bad teams that hire "big names" because that generally means they're relying reputation rather than their own judgement. Franchise coaches are like franchise QBs, they're rare and they're rarely let go by a team that hires/drafts one. Sometimes you can see franchise coaches coming (Harbaugh is the latest example), but most of the time franchise coaches are either unknown or unproven. Bad teams get better by having mostly boring off seasons, by drafting and hiring staff most people haven't heard of, don't know much about, or don't pay much attention to.
I'll keep on eye on the Browns and let you know what I think about whomever they hire when it happens. Thanks for stopping by!
Detroit Lions
Out: Jim Schwartz
In: Jim Caldwell
Fire: Strongly agree
Hire: Somewhat agree
It's no secret that I agree with the firing. Schwartz's team wasn't disciplined and Stafford doesn't appear to be making the progress a franchise QB needs to make. This team got worse as the season progressed and that's usually and indication of a squad that doesn't believe in their coach and/or his strategy. I think the Lions hired Caldwell because he's the polar opposite of Schwartz from a personality standpoint. Caldwell is cerebral, quiet, and disciplined, which is what this team needs. His head coaching skills are still in question given his last year in Indy. I'm glad Caldwell got another shot as the head guy, but I'm a little skeptical with him as the head guy. Either way the Lions are probably going to be a better team at the end of the 2015 season.
Minnesota Vikings
Out: Lesley Frazier
In: Mike Zimmer
Fire: Agree
Hire: Strongly agree
Frazier is a good coach who didn't find the right QB. You could see this day coming the moment the Vikes selected Christian Ponder 12th overall. I don't know that Frazier gets another shot at a head coaching gig, but he certainly should be a DC again. Mike Zimmer is a different personality from Frazier and his more confrontational style might be what this team needs, but Zimmer can't be more Schwartz than Harbaugh if this is going to work. Getting Norv Turner to be the OC is huge for Zimmer. Turner knows how to coordinate an offense and will get a lot out of this roster. The only thing left for Zimmer to do is get the right QB. There's no need to rush this decision because Zimmer should have at least two full years under his belt before there's any "Hot Seat" talk. Jameis Winston doesn't come out until 2015 and if the Vikings are in a position to draft him Zimmer could be in Minny of the next decade.
Tennessee Titans
Out: Mike Munchak
In: Ken Whisenhunt
Fire: Disagree
Hire: Strongly agree
The Titans played hard for Munchak and so I don't know that I would have fired him. On the other hand Munchak did draft Locker with the 8th overall pick in 2011. Locker was a project and it doesn't help that 2nd round project QB Colin Kaepernick has played in a Super Bowl and an NFC championship game the past two seasons. Like Frazier, Munchak chose wrong with his QB and it ultimately cost him his job. I would have given Munchak another year. Whisenhunt can coach and as long as he gets the right QB he'll be a great hire. It's a bit puzzling that Whisenhunt chose Tennessee over Detroit, but when you look at the QB competition in the AFC South vs. the NFC North the decision makes more sense. Whisenhunt's biggest competition in the division will likely be the Colts and to make the playoffs each year he'll probably only need to beat them once. In other words the Titans have a relatively short distance to climb on a relatively small hill.
Washington
Out: Mike Shanahan
In: Jay Gruden
Fire: Strongly agree
Hire: Neutral
Washington's issues begin with their incompetent owner. Dan Snyder is the owner so I'll reserve judgment on his 8th head coach since buying the team until I see how his relationship with Gruden plays out. Gruden's coming from a roster with a lot of weapons to a roster with essentially one. We're going to see if the younger Gruden is as creative as his brother very quickly. Keeping Haslett as DC was smart because there's a lot of roster work to do with this team. This team needs a culture change as much as it needs a roster overhaul. Jay Gruden doesn't strike me as the kind of person to usher in that kind of change. Only time will tell.
Houston Texans
Out: Gary Kubiack
In: Bill O'Brien
Fire: Strongly Agree
Hire Strongly Agree
Kubiack was played out and probably proved that he's not head coaching material. This team has a good GM who can spot talent and they've just hired what seems to be a steady personality at head coach. Bill O'Brien did a fantastic job stabilizing Penn State's program and has a reputation for being good with QBs. The Texans are one franchise QB and a full season's experience from being competitive in the AFC South again. They've better roster than the Colts and though they'll probably never draft a QB on Luck's level their supporting cast will keep them in games against Indy. Great hire.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Out: Greg Schiano
In: Lovie Smith
Fire: Somewhat Agree
Hire: Agree
Schiano didn't handle the situation well with Josh Freeman. Too much got out about what went down and what did get out seemed clumsily handled and questionably professional. That's a big, Jim Schwatz-esqe, red flag. On the other hand Schiano's team played well and played hard once they settled on Mike Glennon. On the other other hand, Mike Glennon doesn't strike me as a franchise QB even though he played above expectations. Lovie inherits a great young defense and will get the most out of them. What will make the difference for Smith in his second head coaching gig is if he can have more success on the offensive side of the ball than he did in Chicago. I think Smith is an underrated coach considering he got to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman as his QB. If Lovie gets a franchise QB things will be very competitive in the NFC South
Cleveland Browns
Out: Rob Chudzinski
In: TBD
Fire: Somewhat agree
Hire: TBD
Something's very off if a team fires a coach after one year and like a bad relationship both sides are usually culpable to some degree. The Browns are not a well run organization, but they have a new owner that's still going through some growing pains it seems. They haven't found their coach yet and that's okay, for now. I'd be a little worried that several targets have withdrawn their name from consideration, but it's probably good that the Browns take their time to hire a coach. I'm always skeptical of bad teams that hire "big names" because that generally means they're relying reputation rather than their own judgement. Franchise coaches are like franchise QBs, they're rare and they're rarely let go by a team that hires/drafts one. Sometimes you can see franchise coaches coming (Harbaugh is the latest example), but most of the time franchise coaches are either unknown or unproven. Bad teams get better by having mostly boring off seasons, by drafting and hiring staff most people haven't heard of, don't know much about, or don't pay much attention to.
I'll keep on eye on the Browns and let you know what I think about whomever they hire when it happens. Thanks for stopping by!
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