Free Agency Contd.

Michael Huff: This signing by the Ravens is a perfect example of why they're a step ahead of most teams in the NFL. It's now clear that Ozzie Newsome intended to blow up this roster and rebuild around Flacco after the super bowl. Losing Lewis was inevitable and Reed, Pollard, and Boldin are too old for what they wanted to be paid. Kruger is not worth the contract he signed with the Browns and Ellerbe, though a likely regrettable loss, was an undrafted free agent; the Ravens got more than their monies worth and will likely be able to replace him. If a team is going to clean house then this is how you do it, confidently enacting your vision with minimal sentimentality. The Ravens are doing that and their latest signing of former Texas star and top ten pick Michael Huff is a perfect example of a fantastic move that will help this team be successful for multiple years to come. Personally I think Huff is underrated having been mired in the black hole (you better believe that pun is intended) that is Oakland. Now one is going to mistake him for Ed Reed and while he won't hit like Pollard he'll be more effective in coverage and garner far fewer personal foul flags. What makes this acquisition even more special is the fact that the Texans could have signed Huff but instead went with Ed Reed. I don't think either team wins a championship any time soon, but Huff will likely be around after the Texans have either cut Reed or retired him. One could argue that the Texans were in greater need of an impact player now given that they are on the cusp of a championship, but as I've outlined before I don't think Reed is the key to a championship for Houston. If my speculation turns out to be true then the Texans passed up on an opportunity to sign a very good safety that upgraded the position AND will likely still be productive in four years.

Osi Umenyiora: Good, not great signing. I think Umenyiora is a situational, 10 sack a year guy at best. He brings a lot of big game experience, which will help give a young defense confidence, but I think his words have a minimal impact because his play has declined significantly. I'm not sure Umenyiora is that much of an upgrade from John Abraham so it's a good thing the Falcons aren't paying him much.

D.J. Williams: Denver clearly got tired of Williams being nicked up and being somewhat of a knucklehead. If he's neither in Chicago the Bears just got a borderline pro-bowler. This guy is a tackling machine and one of the best athletes at the position. He's no longer in his prime, but he's more than enough of a replacement from an talent perspective for Brian Urlacher. He'll be in the top five in tackles in the NFC if he can remain healthy and out of trouble.

James Anderson: Not sure why he was let go by the Panthers because he's extremely productive. The Bears are clearly and effectively moving on from the Urlacher era . If Williams and Anderson can recapture their previous production and focus then this linebacking crew is just a few notches below San Fran and Seattle. Sneaky good signings by the Bears.

Fred Davis: It's time for Davis to show he can be a professional and stay the injury report and out of trouble. He's arguable one of the most athletically talented TEs in the league, but health and off-field issues have stunted his growth. Kellen Winslow Jr. comes to mind when thinking about Mr. Davis. Resigning with Washington is a good sign that he's figuring things out. RG3 and Davis could be as lethal as Kaepernick and Vernon Davis in San Fran. I hope this young man can put it all together and stay healthy. The rest of NFC East is not so hopeful.

Leon Washington: Great signing that will help the Pats shorten the field, a needed element of their game now that their offense will likely be less effective in 2013.

Ben Watson: One of the most physically gifted TEs that's ever played in the NFL. Tons of experience, great work ethic, and very high football IQ. A perfect marriage signing with the Saints. This team is now a serious matchup problem for your team's LBs and safeties because Watson can still get open and can still block. If you double Graham you now have to worry about Watson. He'll make a difference for the Saints in the win/loss column converting a half dozen or so crucial third downs. Great signing.

Greg Jones: Remember this? Greg Jones, meet Dexter Reid. One of the last remaining fullbacks in the league, and he's still capable of 5-7 effective carries a game. Arian Foster is very happy to have this guy and the Texans running game is now more potent than last year. Very good signing. Jones now has his best shot at a ring. 

QBs: NFC is rich, AFC needs a subsidy

While looking over the current landscape of the NFL I had an interesting thought. Nowadays winning is all about QB performance and team cohesiveness. It's not about having a great defense or even a great running game, it's about having a resilient defense, a strong locker room and a QB that can make plays in key situations. With this in mind I suddenly realized that the NFC has a disproportionate number of teams set up for success when compared to the AFC. Thinking a bit more about this I asked myself, as a measure of potential championship success, "What will the league look like from a QB/team standpoint in 3 years?" Let's break it down because I think the answer is a bit shocking.

The AFC
The following teams listed below are not likely to be Super Bowl contenders in 3 years because they have a lack of talent at multiple positions and/or have been historically poorly managed. These are my dumpster fire teams. They are light years away from figuring things out.
1) Radiers
2) Bills
3) Jets
4) Browns
5) Jags
6) Titans

Moving onto the rest of the AFC, these teams are not likely to be contenders for the following specific reasons
1) Dolphins: Tannelhill might be a franchise QB, but that org is not yet talented enough to surround him with the weapons he needs (see my previous post about free agent acquisition Mike Wallace). Belichick will still be in the division and that Pat's D is going to be a nightmare in 3 years.
2) Chiefs: Alex Smith needs a special supporting cast and a special coach. Reid is the man, and while this roster is young and talented it's not special. The Broncos will win this division for as long as Manning plays which could be 3 more years.
3) Chargers: Phil Rivers got a raw deal. This organization is a mess and it's going take them a few years to correct the damage done by the former coach and GM. Will Rivers have enough in the tank then? Will the new Chargers brass still want him?
4) Bengals: Dalton is limited at QB and the supporting cast isn't talented enough. The Bengals are a poor-man's 49ers without a transcendent coach. Lewis and Dalton never win a title. If I'm A.J. Green I don't sign a second contract with Cincy and see what Mr. Luck and company are up to.
5) Ravens: It took the Ravens 12 years to rebuild after their 2000 title. This time they keep the QB, but jettison almost everyone else. Flacco's contract will need restructuring in 3 years and will limit the talent they can bring in. This is a great organization that will accumulate talent, but will fall short of a third title in the next three years.
6) Texans: This team is on the cusp, but ultimately I don't think they get over the hump because their offense is too run oriented and struggles to put up points against good teams in big games. No one in the passing game scares you except for Johnson, who's in the last portion of his career. They don't draft particularly well and rely too heavily on free agents. The front office was right to stick with Kubiac, but ultimately he's a B+ coach with a B to B- front office. Not a championship formula.

So how many teams does that leave in the AFC that I think are contenders now or in 3 years? Four.
1) Broncos: Manning, a nightmare receiving core, the best young pass rusher in the game, an emerging personnel guru (Elway), and a steady head coach in John Fox.
2) Patriots: Brady, Belichick, top 3 AFC defense by years end. They're smarter and better prepared than your team.
3) Steelers: Big Ben is a gamer, they're always financially sound, best scouting department in the conference, and they'll still rattle your chinstrap.
4) Colts: scariest team in the conference because Luck is unbelievable and that front office knows what it's doing. I think they're the best team in the conference come 2015.

That's it! Four teams in the AFC that will be championship relevant in 3 years in my opinion. Now look at the NFC. Because the distribution is skewed in the other direction (more contending teams than not) I'll only list the teams that I think won't be serious contenders over the next 3 years.
1) Panthers: Cam doesn't foster a cohesive locker room and the front office is mostly inept at building a championship roster. I still don't understand signing Williams and Stewart to new deals and they haven't been able to find a number 2 receiver to take the pressure off of Steve Smith. Their starting roster is filled with obvious round 1 talent and free agents from other teams. Not good.
2) Vikings: Ponder can't compete with the other three QBs in the division. Adrian Peterson is a beast, but no one else on that offense scares you. Defense is aging and their scouting department isn't skilled enough to compensate.
3) Lions: Swartz will never win a title as a head coach because he can't control his emotions. Weak front office.
4) Bears: Their best shot at a title disappeared when they fired Smith. Old defense, grumpy QB.
5) Cardinals: no prospects of getting a championship level QB. If they get Palmer things get interesting, but they'd need to win it all this coming year because San Fran and Seattle are only going to get better
6) Rams: Questions at QB, lack of offensive talent. They'll compete, but too many questions.
7) Eagles: New coach, franchise QB not on the roster or in this coming draft. It's going to take them a few years to figure this thing out.

So how many NFC contenders does that make? Nine (San Fran, Seattle, Green Bay, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New York, Dallas, and Washington)! More than double the number in the AFC. So what does it mean? Will the NFC dominate super bowls for the next three years? Not necessarily. I think this level of lopsidedness, as I've explained it, means the NFC will be much more exciting to watch and follow than the AFC. I think it also means that offensive talent may migrate disproportionately towards the NFC due to the fact that there's a better crop of QBs there. Also, I think the AFC will be owned by Andrew Luck for the next five years because after Brady and Manning retire there won't be anyone close to his skill level. Finally, I think that after this year, if Brady or Manning don't win a title no AFC team is going to want to play the team that makes it out of the crucible that is the NFC.

Now, one might argue that the scenario I've outlined may change depending on the QBs that are drafted in the next three years. While an influx of talent could change impending NFC offensive dominance I doubt it will have much of a cumulative effect primarily because of the time it takes a team with a new QB to have playoff success. On top of that this year's QB talent is seriously lacking and next year's talent doesn't appear to be all that special either. Get ready NFL fans because the next three years should be fascinating!

Manti Te'o

Okay, this is my last pre-draft Manti Te'o post. So, the young man ran a better 40 time. The new time will probably keep him in the first round. The tape, which is what really matters, shows three things, Manti Te'o has good to great instincts (even against Bama), he dominates lesser competition, and looks physically outmatched against the closest thing he's seen to an NFL team. Bottom line, Te'o is not athletically in the same class as Willis or Kuechly and he's likely not going to be the leader Ray Lewis was. This guy is A.J. Hawk and like Hawk will likely start for 5+ years in the league. We were too high on Te'o starting last year when we thought he could be a top 5 pick. That hype definitely contributed to Te'o's unfortunate off-field situation and the general expectations we must now adjust to put Manti's game in the right perspective. A good prospect that I wouldn't draft if I were a GM simply because I don't think after being "catfished" and lying about it I can trust my defense to him. Mark May says any GM who takes Te'o in the first round should be fired. Allow me to take my first shot at Mr. May, one of the great purveyors of hyperbole that's often incorrect. If the Colts, Vikings, or Broncos draft Te'o he'll be fine. He'll be fine because those are small market teams in friendly and/or conservative regions where the media is not particularly harsh and other established stars will diffuse some of the pressure come Sunday. Any other team would be picking Te'o too early or would be bringing him into a high pressure situation that I don't think any person would thrive in. It'll be interesting to see where Te'o lands for sure.

Free Agency Continues

More opinions on the happenings in the league

Ed Reed: A good singing to a team that lost Glover Quinn, but I'm tepid about Reed's impact on the Texans' super bowl chances. The Texans may very well win a championship, but I'm not sure Reed will be the difference. A hall-of-famer for sure, but in Reed's twelve years in the league he's only won one championship. The Texans look an awful lot like the Ravens, strong running game, intimidating defense, with a capable, but limited QB. In the last four years Reed has played 16 games twice and has a history of being nicked up. I may be nitpicking, but I don't see Reed as the missing piece of the championship puzzle for Houston. They don't yet play with the postseason confidence they need to win it all and maybe Reed provides that. In the long run, Reed does more to improve Andrew Luck's game than he does for the Texans. A championship in Houston goes through Matt Schaub's arm not through Ed Reed. Again, if the 49ers special teams covers a kick off better, or if Randy Moss jumps for a high pass, or if Kaepernick connects on two throws in the red zone Reed is still without a ring.

Elvis Dumervil: If one needed any evidence that Dumervil cares more about "feeling wanted" than winning a ring then his signing with the Ravens is that evidence. I don't know Mr. Dumervil nor do I know the terms he was offered by the Broncos. I don't know his values or his priorities. The mix-up with his agent was certainly unfortunate. All that being said I have a tough time wrapping my brain around the fact that he would leave an obvious super bowl contender for a team that's seen a mass exodus of talent, for what appears to be $500k more money and presumably a feeling of being wanted. This contract will likely be the last big contract Dumervil signs and I get wanting to get paid as much as possible. I get that it sucks when the personnel staff seems to think you're not as valuable as you think you are, especially seeing as how you've been loyal and hardworking for seven years. But it's not like the Ravens were offering much more than $8 million a year, the salary you agreed to resign with your old team, albeit after the deadline. The Broncos probably went down to $6.5 million a year after that screw up and that really sucks, but that's business. Sue your former agent for income lost resign for $7.5 million and go win a championship. By Dumervil signing with the Ravens he has all but guaranteed that this is his last contract in the NFL. He's 29 years old and unless he has tremendous production/value over the next 2-3 years the Ravens will cut him before the end of his contract because he'll be overpaid. Moreoever, the Ravens will have even less loyalty towards him due to the fact that he will have only been there for few years. Now, aside from the business side of things I think this signing is a good move for the Ravens because they've got two premiere, albeit aging, pass rushers in Suggs and Dumervil. Dumervil is certainly an upgrade from Kruger, but in the grand scheme of things the Ravens are rebuilding and are concerned with getting younger and faster.

Brian Urlacher: I know he hasn't signed anywhere yet, but this is a case of another player, in my opinion, that let his ego cloud his better judgement. Next offseason that $2 million dollar deal to stay in Chicago will look pretty nice because I doubt Urlacher gets more than a one year deal with a new team. He may sign a 3 year deal (anything more than that and I'll be shocked), but I doubt he'll be kept for more than a year. If I'm a GM I don't sign him because he's frankly too injury prone and aged to warrant me making him a focal point of a defense. Contenders are unlikely to sign him because they don't need him so that leaves only a handful of teams that are just outside of a championship squad, namely the Vikings, Cowboys, and myabe the Colts? Really? You're going to leave the Bears and sign with one of those teams to play for maybe two years for maybe $500k more money? I don't get it. Great pro, great career, unfortunate end.

More to come soon!

Bold NFL Predictions

I'll call this the "Yeah I said it!" column. Sometimes when I look at the landscape of the NFL and the moves teams make I sometimes have very definitive thoughts about the outcomes of said moves. So here are some bold predictions about current NFL situations that I feel very strongly about.

1) The Ravens will not win another superbowl with Joe Flacco as their starting QB:
Defense decimated, limited talent on offense except for the RB position, the Steelers are a better organization, Pats D will be scary good in 1-2 years, NFC is dominant, Ravens will come to resent the fact that they paid a QB with barely a 60% completion percentage all that money. Flacco is a champion because he's cool under pressure and has had a great D and running game behind him (and because the Broncos safety and 49ers special teams had momentary mental lapses). He'll not be worth the money the Ravens paid him in three years.

2) Seahawks vs. Niners will be the best rivalry in the NFL for the next three years:
How awesome is this?! Pete Carroll vs. Jim Harbaugh, pro style! These two teams are loaded with young talent and lead by two fantastic QBs. 9ers have a better organization, but Seahawks have a better QB. Both defenses will hurt you and your loved ones and both teams probably don't like each other that much; their head coaches sure don't. Both regular season games between SF and SE should be on MNF or SNF for the next half decade.

3) Cam Newton will never win a super bowl:
He's the Carmelo Anthony of the NFL. Great individual player, doesn't make teammates better. When a player coming into the league says he wants to be an "icon and an entertainer" then I check out, forever. Actual sports icons are too focused and self-aware to say something like that out loud because doing so wastes time in achieving the goal of being a transcendent player. Newton will put up numbers, but when things don't go his way he has and will continue to look to others before looking at himself for answers. Couple that with an organization that's nutty enough to sign two talented running backs to long term deals in a game that's increasingly becoming pass happy rather than shopping one back to stock pile draft picks and you've got the incompetent leading the self-deluded.

4) Adrian Peterson is the last great RB we will ever see:
Even before the NFL's new "head ducking" rule the writing was on the wall. The NFL is moving from a game of collisions to a game played in space. I'll miss the old NFL where players smash into each other and mouth pieces go flying, but the reality is human beings are just too big and fast to sustain any kind of quality of life playing football the traditional way. As such, running backs, as they are traditionally used, will find it increasingly difficult to find a place on a team. RBs will look more and more like Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin and less and less like Frank Gore and Trent Richardson. The best of these 'old school' backs, Adrian Peterson, is the last great (traditional) back we will see. I'll be surprised if Richardson cracks 8,000 yards rushing for his career.

5) Any team that drafts a QB in the first half of the first round of this draft will not make it past the first round of the playoffs with that QB as their starter:
A bit convoluted, but hear me out. These QBs aren't last year's QBs and everyone essentially knows that. Russell Wilson is one of those rare exceptions that come along every so often. The Seahawks lucked out in the same way that the Patriots lucked out with Brady; they got a super talented QB for cheap, something no team that picks a QB in the first 16 picks of this draft will be able to say. If a team is going to draft a QB early and he's not thought of as transcendent then they need to have both a strong supporting cast and an incumbent (or presumed) starter in place to relieve some of the added pressure their new signal caller will have (see Aaron Rodgers). Drafting any QB early in this draft will be a reach and teams that reach in the draft are desperate. Desperate teams lack vision or patience or both. This year's QBs, like all QBs, will struggle when they get a chance to start. Right now this year's prospects don't appear to have the talent to overcome such struggles on their own and if the supporting cast is poor then you've got a Blaine Gabbert situation; a QB that starts to believe he's a bust and plays with little confidence. Although it can be hard to pass on a QB when picking in the top of the draft it's so much more important to pick the right guy rather than picking the available guy at the moment.

6) Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings collectively will make a maximum of three pro bowls for the rest of their career:
I've talked a bit about this in early posts, but it boils down to the following:
1) They'll struggle to consistently beat double and triple coverage
2) They've got far less talented QBs throwing them the ball
3) They were let go by two of the top five best run organizations in football
But they're rich and feel wanted now so I guess that's something.

7) The following teams will not win or play in the Super Bowl this coming year:
And I'm going to list the teams that most would say have a shot and omit the teams (like the Bills, Cards, Raiders, Panthers) that most would say don't have a shot.
1) Falcons (weak defense)
2) Bucs (too young)
3) Saints (old defense)
4) Colts (too young)
5) Bengals (limited at QB)
6) Bears (transitioning D, head-case at QB)
7) Lions (Swartz has the emotional control of a 14 year old)
8) Redskins (too young, limited D, injury prone QB)
9) Cowboys (Jerry Jones)
10) Texans (limited at QB)
11) Seahawks (Pete Carroll's not detail oriented)
These are the teams that I think could play in the Super Bowl
1) 49ers
2) Broncos
3) Pats
4) Steelers
5) Packers
6) Giants

8) The Dallas Cowboys will never win a Super Bowl with Jerry Jones as their general manager:
This is not so bold, but it needs to be said. The man loves his team like Lenny loves soft things. I'm not saying that Jones is mentally disabled, but he is killing his franchise by not letting someone more talented than he make the personnel decisions for his team. Hopefully the league's newest Al Davis won't have to die before he relinquishes his control.

That's a wrap for today. Look for more bold predictions after the draft.

More Free Agency

Week 2 is almost in the books so I thought I'd weigh in on a few more signings.

Greg Jennings: If the Vikings are expecting Jennings to be as productive as he was in Green Bay the three years his stats were even worth pro bowl consideration then they're going to be disappointed. Not that successful athletes should think this, but there is nothing about Greg Jennings' game that suggests he's an elite receiver. He's never had more than 1300 yards receiving, never caught more than 80 balls, and never had more than 12tds in a season; something he's only done that twice in seven years. And that's with Bret Favre and Aaron Rodgers as his QBs. Is Greg Jennings very good? Yes. But he's also never demonstrated that he can be a 95+ catch, 1300 yard, 10td a year guy, which is what the Vikings are paying him to do. And now he goes to a team where he'll be double teamed every down (mainly because no one else on the Vikes scares a defensive backfield) and will have to play with a QB that hasn't demonstrated he's even half as good as the two QBs Jennings has been catching passes from. If Jennings was a true number one, can't be double teamed, elite receiver then the Packers wouldn't have let him go. The Vikings just payed Jennings elite receiver money. Desperate team meet desperate player. Well, at least he feels "wanted".

Wes Welker: Slam dunk! And here's why. The Broncos will pay him $12 million over two years (that's cheap), they have one of the 5 best QBs of all time, and they have two incredibly talented, young, big, speedy, receivers to shield Welker. This passing game is a nightmare. The Broncos now have three legit 1000 yard receivers on their team, something no other team can lay claims to. Remember, good teams find good players for cheap. If Welker rips his knee tomorrow the Broncos are no worse off than they were last year, both from a talent and financial perspective. If the Vikings lose Jennings in the preseason then they'll struggle to win games and be out a lot of cash. These two signings (Welker vs. Jennings) are night and day. Any coincidence these two teams are night and day?

Jake Long: Desperate team makes a very good signing, but I don't expect Long to be elite. Free agents are almost always overpaid, and Long is no exception, but him going to the Rams fills a need that the Rams desperately need. Sam Bradford has needed better protection since the day he was drafted and even though this year's tackle prospects are very good, they are still rookies. The Rams can still draft a tackle, but now that they have Long, a known commodity, they can afford to bring new prospects along slowly rather than plug them in immediately and hope they can block Aldon Smith one-on-one from day one. A very good signing that brings stability to a position of need. Long's talent isn't worth the contract, but his value to this team is.

Steven Jackson: Good signing, didn't pay a lot, is a better player Michael Turner, I'm just not sure Jackson is the missing piece to the championship puzzle. The Falcon's defense does not scare you and the Falcon's defense is why they lost the NFC championship game. Steven Jackson is four more 1000 yard seasons away from making a claim to the hall of fame, but he's not going to help the Falcons D get off the field on 3rd and 4 against Aaron Rodgers, Colin Kaepernick, or Russell Wilson. I think Jackson makes more of an impact and has a greater shot at a ring if he signs with the Packers, but playing in the south and in doors for at least 11 out of 16 games is probably better for an aging back than playing in northern Wisconsin in December. Big name, big talent, littler splash.

Dashon Goldson: Good signing. My only hesitation is the same hesitation I have with obviously good teams letting presumably great players go. Goldson is an impact player and as  49ers fan I would have loved to see him stay put, but because the 9ers let him go I now have to wonder how much of an impact player is Goldson really. If Goldson was essential for the run my favorite team had last year then why is he now with the Bucs? This would be a worrisome scenario if the 49ers were the Bengals or the Bills or the Raiders, but this is the defending NFC champs; a team who's roster is loaded with young (cheap) talent. No question the addition of Goldson makes the Bucs D quite formidable as they now have a top 5 safety tandem. But the Bucs don't necessarily need another head hunter, they need cover men and now their highest paid DB is someone who's better at the line of scrimmage than he is in coverage. If the Bucs get Revis then the rest of the NFC South will have a serious problem, but until then they've essentially just paid for a new corvette (another team didn't want bad enough) when they've got a Nissan GTR (yup, I think Barron is that good) in the garage. Goldson may help you beat Cam Newton, but Drew Brees and the Falcons' receivers are who you should be worried about.

Glenn Dorsey: Not sure why things like this happen. Classic case of the rich getting richer. The former LSU star and 5th overall pick in 2008 signs with the 49ers for $7 million! Coming out of college I thought Dorsey was the best looking tackle prospect I had ever seen. High motor, quick first step, and simply tenacious. Kansas City is not a good organization and they haven't been for a while. I think their former coach, Todd Haley, should never have been a head coach as he seems to antagonize players rather than motivate them (very telling the sideline incident with him and Anquan Boldin in Arizona a few years back). Given Dorsey's talent and the environment he was drafted into it's possible his thus far underwhelming career was a product of his environment. Is Dorsey an all time player? No. If he was then he would have balled out no matter who his coaches were. Is Dorsey more valuable than his 2yr/$7 million contract? That's very possible, but if it turns out that he's simply a bust then the 9ers only take a minor hit. I'd certainly be willing to bet $3.5 million a year for two years that Glen Dorsey can replace Isaac Sopoaga, wouldn't you?

Reggie Bush: (mini) Slam dunk! Not a fan of Jim Swartz, think he's too volatile to be an effective leader of a young team, so I worry about the environment Bush is headed to, but this could potentially be a huge pick up. Bush has demonstrated that he can be an every down back, and if the Lions choose to use him that way they're as dumb as they've looked over the last decade. Bush is a mismatch nightmare and is most effective when his role puts him in space. He should be the second (or third if Pettigrew continues to develop) leading receiver in this offense behind Megatron. If he's not then the Lions are doing something wrong.

Adrian Wilson: Slam dunk! Savvy vet goes to a great organization with a young defense. Adrian Wilson is the modern day version of Rodney Harrison. That defense just doubled it's football IQ and when you've got the kind of young talent the Pats D has that's scary. The rest of the AFC East is lightyears behind the Pats and with the addition of Wilson they'll stay lightyears behind for at least the next five years. Unbelievably smart pick.

Bushrod/Cherilus: Great signings. Both fill glaring needs on their new teams and both will allow the QBs they protect to be more effective. Saints likely have a replacement for Bushrod, Lions likely aren't as prepared for Cherilus' departure. Andrew Luck is smiling, Jay Cutler is smirking with approval.

Glover Quinn: Huge signing. Tough, smart player that can be an anchor of the DBs for five more years. Lions needed a guy like Quinn badly and now they can say goodbye to the talented, but oft injured Delmas without any trepidation.

Danny Amendola: If he can stay healthy and is as smart as Welker Pats fans won't miss the new Broncos slot man. Amendola could be Wes Welker of 2008 or he could be out for half the season. Time will tell, but I'd not bet on the Pats getting all they paid for.

Dom-R-Cromartie: This maybe the sneakiest FA signing this offseason. DRC is very good, not elite, but he's certainly better than what he showed in Philly the last couple of years. Champ Bailey is simply too old to consistently lock down an elite receiver so the Broncos have to begin looking for talent to compensate. They've over compensated with DRC. Fans may have forgotten that the Broncos new corner is one of the most athletic DBs in the game and will easily handle the best receivers the AFC West has to offer. Don't be surprised if DRC is a pro-bowler this year.

La-Ron Landry: If he can stay healthy Landry is exactly what this young, traditionally finesse D needs; a head hunting, snot bubbling, fear inducing hammer. Think Bob Sanders only bigger. Landry scares people and makes plays and will be great for a developing defense.

Matt Hasselbeck: Probably won't see the field, but a pick-up that shows you the colts organization is super smart. Andrew Luck looks to be a transcendent QB and now that he's got a veteran backup to study with he'll be that much better. Hasselbeck will be a great mentor and someone who can still win games should Luck get injured. Either Jake Locker is ready to stand on his own or the Titans are clearing a roster spot for their next backup QB.

Martellus Bennett: Waste of time, waste of money signing. Putting an under achieving, immature TE with a curmudgeon QB in a locker room that just lost it's team leader but gained a first year head coach from the CFL is a financial disaster. Bennett was productive for half a season with one of the best organizations in the NFL after several years buried on the depth chart in Dallas. Seems like he needs a strong team atmosphere to realize even a portion of his talent. Good luck Bears.

That's all for now. More to come soon!

Free Agency

Looking at the landscape of the NFL and the various trends that are out there I find some of the fan and media reactions concerning free agency predictable, but also baffling. Fan is short for fanatic and the media reflects the fan base for the most part so it's understandable that free agency is popular and that teams have lots of excitement during this period. What's baffling to me is that despite the excitement of signing a highly prized free agent fans of teams and even general managers of teams often overlook the principles of putting together a championship level squad and fall into predictable traps. Free agency is exciting, don't get me wrong, but much like many successfully run organizations the truly impactful moves rarely make the front page and is mostly boring. So before I comment on what's been happening thus far in free agency I want to list a few characteristics of successfully run franchises to provide some perspective on what's been going on thus far. The following is a list of things well run NFL franchises do/don't do:

Well run franchises:
1) Draft their franchise QB: with the exception of New Orleans and Denver, playoff caliber teams rarely win games with a QB some other staff drafted. The most recent example of this rule in practice would be the 49ers who subplanted Alex Smith with the guy they saw as the best fit for their team, Colin Kaepernick. If a team is looking for a QB and ends up signing anyone other than a transcendent talent (Brees, Manning, Farve) then you can bet their success will be limited until they get "their guy". Sorry chiefs fans.

2) Draft the majority of their talent: There are two reasons for this trend: 1) Successful draft picks are cheaper than free agents & 2) Successful draft picks are usually better fits to a scheme than free agents. Teams that execute their vision and build lasting success do so from the ground up rather than from the 3rd or 4th floor up. Most super talented coaches/GMs want the most control they can have on building their team. Other people's talent, methods, and judgement won't suffice. Young players are more malleable/coachable and are more willing to buy into a philosophy due to the fact that they probably don't have as concrete a philosophy one of their own.

3) Don't give up talent they need: And the more successful a team is the less willing they are to give up players they'd be hard pressed to replace. This principle is probably the most ignored when it comes to free agency. Fans get all excited about a super talented free agent that couldn't work out a contract with a team an now they're jumping ship. If that player were of the utmost value to the team then the team would have kept the player. What about Peyton Manning and Joe Montana? The answer to that question is Andrew Luck and Steve Young. Chris Rock once said that men are only as faithful as their options. Good teams almost always keep players they can't replace. Don't get too excited when your teams signs a big free agent talent. He might be good, but if he were so amazing why did his former team let him go? If the player is coming from the a well run franchise then it's not because that team is stupid.

4) Get free agents on the cheap: Acquiring talent is all about getting the most value for what you pay for. The New England Patriots traded for future hall of famer Randy Moss for a fourth round pick. The next year he had the single greatest regular season of a wide-receiver ever. This year the 49ers acquired Anquan Boldin, one of the smartest and toughest receivers in the game, for a 6th round pick. This is the same receiver that had 22 receptions, 380 yards, and 4 tds in four playoff games, including a super bowl win. These type of transactions should be illegal because it's damn near stealing! Now not every team that gives up talent for cheap returns is a bad team, but certainly any team that pulls off one of these type of deals is doing a good job. Low risk, high reward and taking advantage of stupidity or desperation.

5) Don't sign a bunch of big name free agents: The reason for this is obvious even if you've never heard of Dan Snyder. Well run organizations, for the most part, have the core talent they need in house so their needs are relatively minimal when it comes to signing supposed top talent. Now good teams may make a bunch of moves in free agency, but they tend to be signings of role players, guys who make little differences here and there; a special teams stud, or offensive/defensive line depth, or a savvy veteran who may help the younger talent. Teams that sign a bunch of big name free agents are more often than not paying for players that are either in the twilight of their career, are delusional about their market value, and/or are too knuckle-headed to stay with a good team. Acquiring a young, self-aware, mature player that's also super talented is hard enough let alone acquiring one that another team had and is stupid or desperate enough to let go.


Okay, I could go on a bit more, but let's get to my opinions of some of the "big name" players that have moved on to other teams.

Mike Wallace: First things first, the Dolphins overpaid for him. The biggest mistake GMs/fans make is assuming production on team A translates to production on any other team. In my opinion you only pay this kind of money to someone who is a transcendent/dominant talent. If the Steelers had a transcendent/dominant talent in Mike Wallace they would not have let him go. Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Smith are the only receivers (too early to tell if A.J. Green belongs here) that can dominate with almost any QB. And the reason for this is because they consistently see and beat double or triple coverage. Mike Wallace has shown he's very good, but he has not shown that he can be productive when he is the focal point of the defensive game-plan. He doesn't catch a lot of balls and his stats show that he's primarily a downfield threat. But let's assume Mike Wallace belongs in the aforementioned class even though we have no evidence to suppose so, who was the last big time free agent receiver that changed teams and was instrumental in their team making a deep playoff run? Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. What do they have in common? They're transcendent talents, they didn't stick around long with their new team, and their teams both lost the super bowl. Is Wallace better than the talent coming out in the draft? Right now he is, but we don't know how good these young men will be and we know the success rate for free agent receivers is extremely low. Who else on Miami's team scares a defense? A 2nd year QB, an o-line that's going to lose it's best player, a backfield that lost its leading rusher and best talent, and a receiving supporting cast that are (good) possession receivers. The game-plan folder for defenses facing Miami will now ready "Stop Mike Wallace, Blitz the hell out of Tannehill". In order to be worth the price Wallace has to be Steve Smith in terms of production. Yeah, good luck with that.

Percy Harvin: I go back and forth on this one, but my instincts tell me the Seahawks also overpaid for Harvin. Going back to the argument that no receiver in this draft is as talented as Harvin; yes, that's likely, but we could be wrong about that. Very few people thought Russell Wilson was on RG3's level, but he may end up being a better pro. No one saw Tom Brady coming and yet he turned out to be arguably the greatest QB of all time. But let's be a little more realistic. The closest prospect in terms of talent and style of play to Percy Harvin is WVU's Tavon Austin. If Austin were to catch 50 balls, rack up 750 yards receiving, 800+ yards returning and score 5 tds then he'd be almost as good as Harvin was his rookie year. These are not impossible stats to repeat. Would those numbers be as good as Harvin's numbers are likely to be in 2013? No, but Harvin's numbers will cost the Seahawks more and the Vikings were still able to make the playoffs without Harvin. It's a question of value. If Austin or any other player puts up Harvin type production then the Seahawks will have overpaid because they could have gotten younger, similar production for less money. Throw on top of that the fact that Harvin doesn't have the best reputation when it comes to managing differences with the coaching staff. Now I'll cut young millionaires a bit of slack in this department because I can't imagine I'd be the best kind of person if I had the kind of money/freedom/pressure these young men have, but it's certainly not nothing when a guy is "difficult", especially because the majority of the truly great players rarely develop this reputation. This trade could go either way and I wouldn't bet either way unless I was threatened with bodily harm, but if I had to throw in some cash I'd say there'll be another player in this draft within the Seahawks' reach that could have given them more value for what they gave up to get Harvin.

Paul Kruger: Browns massively overpaid. Part of this has to do with the fact that the Browns (the expansion Browns) have been a terrible organization in terms of personnel decision making, but also because they are making the same mistake the Dolphins made with Wallace. Paul Kruger played with Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Darnel Ellerbe, and Ed Reed. As an offensive coordinator, all of these players would be higher on my list of concern than Kruger. If a d-lineman has not demonstrated that he can consistently beat a double team, or has not consistently faced a double team, then I'm not interested in signing him for big money. If the Browns' d-line already had play makers on it then maybe I'd sign Kruger, albeit to a much smaller contract, but as it stands now the Browns have just paid $40 mil for a guy that's going to get double teamed in every game. That's fine if you're signing someone who's unblockable like Julius Peppers, but you haven't even seen consistent $40 million dollar level production out of this guy mostly because he's never double teamed. Let's compare Kruger to upcoming DE star Aldon Smith. Is Paul Kruger on Aldon Smith's level talent-wise? Very doubtful. What happened to Aldon Smith when his teammate, Justin Smith, got injured? A. Smith's sack totals plummeted because teams only had to worry about the one guy. Aldon Smith will cost the 9ers ~$1.7 mil in 2013 while Krugger will cost the Browns ~$13 mil. If Kruger has seven times the impact of Smith next season then this deal will be worth it. Smith will likely rack up at least 10 sacks next year (he's averaging 15/year) so Paul Kruger would have to more than triple the all time single season sack record for the Browns to equalize the value the 9ers get from Smith. Now of course the law of deminishing returns is applicable and eventually the 9ers will have to pay Smith more money to keep him, but in the meantime they are paying peanuts for a player who's had more sacks in his first two years than Reggie White. That's the power of drafting well versus paying for someone else's seconds.

That's all for now. More to come in this fast and furious time of NFL free agency.

What I learned from the combine

I'll keep this short because free agency is about to start next week and I have a lot I want to say about it.

What I already knew:
1) Teams primarily care about the medical evaluations of players and the interview process, not so much the physical drills. Players rarely dramatically change their status in the eyes of scouts at the combine, even with "poor" or "good" performances.

2) Manti Te'o is not fast in a straight line.

3) This year's QB's are not on the level of last year's QB's. To be fair last years class may be an all time class equal to 2004.

4) The strength of this class is the defensive and offensive lines.

What I thought I knew and was right:
1) Tyrann Mathieu is an NFL cornerback. Looked great in drills, is fast enough, and has great hands for a corner. He'll play at the next level.

2) Manti Te'o is quicker than fast. Shuttle and cone drill times were good. Still don't think he's a top 20 pick, but he won't last much into the second round.

3) Geno Smith wouldn't stand out. I was watching him (briefly) during drills and didn't see someone with a commanding presence or demeanor. Certainly not a definitive indictment on him, just a bit a circumstantial evidence that he's not a franchise QB prospect.

4) Barkevious Mingo is a very good athlete.

5) Sam Montgomery looks like he'll be ready to start week one. No one is really talking about the other LSU DE, but I think Montgomery will be one of those Justin Smith type of players; around for ten years, maybe a pro bowl or two, not a superstar, but definitely a difference maker.

What I thought I knew and was wrong:
1) Manti Te'o would be shunned by participants. I was paying close attention to how other players interacted with the ND star and I didn't notice anything out of the ordinary. He seemed like one of the guys. Who knows what other players were thinking, tweeting, facebooking, but at least things weren't noticeably awkward.

2) Tyrann Mathieu would be a tough interview. Much more articulate than I thought he'd be in interviews. Honest about his troubles and self-reflective. Big plus in my book if I were a scout.

3) Alec Olgetree would put on a clinic. Not so much. 4.7 40, 20 reps, and shuttle and cone times slower than Manti Te'o. Is it effort? Focus? Commitment? Not sure what it is, but it isn't good.

What I simply didn't know
1) Tavon Austin is a potential difference maker. Wasn't sure if his success was more a product of the scheme or his athleticism and football IQ. Looks like it's more of the later. As good a prospect as Percy Harvin? That's a bit more believable after what I saw.

2) Margus Hunt is a physical freak. Dude is an athlete, that's not debatable. Whether or not he can use his immense strength and speed on Sundays is another question. On tape he does are really poor job of protecting his 6'8" frame from o-lineman. If he gets coached up to use his hands better then he could be a terror. If he doesn't develop those skills he'll be a bust.

3) Sharif Floyd is the real deal. Disruptive, strong, lightning first step. Physically resembles Warren Sapp. Great interview. Articulate, good football IQ, self-aware. He's a different prospect than Utah's Star; less of a space eater and more of a gap shooter. Both will be good pro's, sky is the limit on Floyd's impact.

4) Desmond Trufant is as good a prospect as his eldest brother. Fast, big, and the tape shows his consistency. Maybe won't be as good as Marcus was at his peak, but if he can stay healthy he'll have more of an impact.

5) Leon Sandcastle is probably faster than 75% of combine participants.