While looking over the current landscape of the NFL I had an interesting thought. Nowadays winning is all about QB performance and team cohesiveness. It's not about having a great defense or even a great running game, it's about having a resilient defense, a strong locker room and a QB that can make plays in key situations. With this in mind I suddenly realized that the NFC has a disproportionate number of teams set up for success when compared to the AFC. Thinking a bit more about this I asked myself, as a measure of potential championship success, "What will the league look like from a QB/team standpoint in 3 years?" Let's break it down because I think the answer is a bit shocking.
The AFC
The following teams listed below are not likely to be Super Bowl contenders in 3 years because they have a lack of talent at multiple positions and/or have been historically poorly managed. These are my dumpster fire teams. They are light years away from figuring things out.
1) Radiers
2) Bills
3) Jets
4) Browns
5) Jags
6) Titans
Moving onto the rest of the AFC, these teams are not likely to be contenders for the following specific reasons
1) Dolphins: Tannelhill might be a franchise QB, but that org is not yet talented enough to surround him with the weapons he needs (see my previous post about free agent acquisition Mike Wallace). Belichick will still be in the division and that Pat's D is going to be a nightmare in 3 years.
2) Chiefs: Alex Smith needs a special supporting cast and a special coach. Reid is the man, and while this roster is young and talented it's not special. The Broncos will win this division for as long as Manning plays which could be 3 more years.
3) Chargers: Phil Rivers got a raw deal. This organization is a mess and it's going take them a few years to correct the damage done by the former coach and GM. Will Rivers have enough in the tank then? Will the new Chargers brass still want him?
4) Bengals: Dalton is limited at QB and the supporting cast isn't talented enough. The Bengals are a poor-man's 49ers without a transcendent coach. Lewis and Dalton never win a title. If I'm A.J. Green I don't sign a second contract with Cincy and see what Mr. Luck and company are up to.
5) Ravens: It took the Ravens 12 years to rebuild after their 2000 title. This time they keep the QB, but jettison almost everyone else. Flacco's contract will need restructuring in 3 years and will limit the talent they can bring in. This is a great organization that will accumulate talent, but will fall short of a third title in the next three years.
6) Texans: This team is on the cusp, but ultimately I don't think they get over the hump because their offense is too run oriented and struggles to put up points against good teams in big games. No one in the passing game scares you except for Johnson, who's in the last portion of his career. They don't draft particularly well and rely too heavily on free agents. The front office was right to stick with Kubiac, but ultimately he's a B+ coach with a B to B- front office. Not a championship formula.
So how many teams does that leave in the AFC that I think are contenders now or in 3 years? Four.
1) Broncos: Manning, a nightmare receiving core, the best young pass rusher in the game, an emerging personnel guru (Elway), and a steady head coach in John Fox.
2) Patriots: Brady, Belichick, top 3 AFC defense by years end. They're smarter and better prepared than your team.
3) Steelers: Big Ben is a gamer, they're always financially sound, best scouting department in the conference, and they'll still rattle your chinstrap.
4) Colts: scariest team in the conference because Luck is unbelievable and that front office knows what it's doing. I think they're the best team in the conference come 2015.
That's it! Four teams in the AFC that will be championship relevant in 3 years in my opinion. Now look at the NFC. Because the distribution is skewed in the other direction (more contending teams than not) I'll only list the teams that I think won't be serious contenders over the next 3 years.
1) Panthers: Cam doesn't foster a cohesive locker room and the front office is mostly inept at building a championship roster. I still don't understand signing Williams and Stewart to new deals and they haven't been able to find a number 2 receiver to take the pressure off of Steve Smith. Their starting roster is filled with obvious round 1 talent and free agents from other teams. Not good.
2) Vikings: Ponder can't compete with the other three QBs in the division. Adrian Peterson is a beast, but no one else on that offense scares you. Defense is aging and their scouting department isn't skilled enough to compensate.
3) Lions: Swartz will never win a title as a head coach because he can't control his emotions. Weak front office.
4) Bears: Their best shot at a title disappeared when they fired Smith. Old defense, grumpy QB.
5) Cardinals: no prospects of getting a championship level QB. If they get Palmer things get interesting, but they'd need to win it all this coming year because San Fran and Seattle are only going to get better
6) Rams: Questions at QB, lack of offensive talent. They'll compete, but too many questions.
7) Eagles: New coach, franchise QB not on the roster or in this coming draft. It's going to take them a few years to figure this thing out.
So how many NFC contenders does that make? Nine (San Fran, Seattle, Green Bay, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New York, Dallas, and Washington)! More than double the number in the AFC. So what does it mean? Will the NFC dominate super bowls for the next three years? Not necessarily. I think this level of lopsidedness, as I've explained it, means the NFC will be much more exciting to watch and follow than the AFC. I think it also means that offensive talent may migrate disproportionately towards the NFC due to the fact that there's a better crop of QBs there. Also, I think the AFC will be owned by Andrew Luck for the next five years because after Brady and Manning retire there won't be anyone close to his skill level. Finally, I think that after this year, if Brady or Manning don't win a title no AFC team is going to want to play the team that makes it out of the crucible that is the NFC.
Now, one might argue that the scenario I've outlined may change depending on the QBs that are drafted in the next three years. While an influx of talent could change impending NFC offensive dominance I doubt it will have much of a cumulative effect primarily because of the time it takes a team with a new QB to have playoff success. On top of that this year's QB talent is seriously lacking and next year's talent doesn't appear to be all that special either. Get ready NFL fans because the next three years should be fascinating!
The AFC
The following teams listed below are not likely to be Super Bowl contenders in 3 years because they have a lack of talent at multiple positions and/or have been historically poorly managed. These are my dumpster fire teams. They are light years away from figuring things out.
1) Radiers
2) Bills
3) Jets
4) Browns
5) Jags
6) Titans
Moving onto the rest of the AFC, these teams are not likely to be contenders for the following specific reasons
1) Dolphins: Tannelhill might be a franchise QB, but that org is not yet talented enough to surround him with the weapons he needs (see my previous post about free agent acquisition Mike Wallace). Belichick will still be in the division and that Pat's D is going to be a nightmare in 3 years.
2) Chiefs: Alex Smith needs a special supporting cast and a special coach. Reid is the man, and while this roster is young and talented it's not special. The Broncos will win this division for as long as Manning plays which could be 3 more years.
3) Chargers: Phil Rivers got a raw deal. This organization is a mess and it's going take them a few years to correct the damage done by the former coach and GM. Will Rivers have enough in the tank then? Will the new Chargers brass still want him?
4) Bengals: Dalton is limited at QB and the supporting cast isn't talented enough. The Bengals are a poor-man's 49ers without a transcendent coach. Lewis and Dalton never win a title. If I'm A.J. Green I don't sign a second contract with Cincy and see what Mr. Luck and company are up to.
5) Ravens: It took the Ravens 12 years to rebuild after their 2000 title. This time they keep the QB, but jettison almost everyone else. Flacco's contract will need restructuring in 3 years and will limit the talent they can bring in. This is a great organization that will accumulate talent, but will fall short of a third title in the next three years.
6) Texans: This team is on the cusp, but ultimately I don't think they get over the hump because their offense is too run oriented and struggles to put up points against good teams in big games. No one in the passing game scares you except for Johnson, who's in the last portion of his career. They don't draft particularly well and rely too heavily on free agents. The front office was right to stick with Kubiac, but ultimately he's a B+ coach with a B to B- front office. Not a championship formula.
So how many teams does that leave in the AFC that I think are contenders now or in 3 years? Four.
1) Broncos: Manning, a nightmare receiving core, the best young pass rusher in the game, an emerging personnel guru (Elway), and a steady head coach in John Fox.
2) Patriots: Brady, Belichick, top 3 AFC defense by years end. They're smarter and better prepared than your team.
3) Steelers: Big Ben is a gamer, they're always financially sound, best scouting department in the conference, and they'll still rattle your chinstrap.
4) Colts: scariest team in the conference because Luck is unbelievable and that front office knows what it's doing. I think they're the best team in the conference come 2015.
That's it! Four teams in the AFC that will be championship relevant in 3 years in my opinion. Now look at the NFC. Because the distribution is skewed in the other direction (more contending teams than not) I'll only list the teams that I think won't be serious contenders over the next 3 years.
1) Panthers: Cam doesn't foster a cohesive locker room and the front office is mostly inept at building a championship roster. I still don't understand signing Williams and Stewart to new deals and they haven't been able to find a number 2 receiver to take the pressure off of Steve Smith. Their starting roster is filled with obvious round 1 talent and free agents from other teams. Not good.
2) Vikings: Ponder can't compete with the other three QBs in the division. Adrian Peterson is a beast, but no one else on that offense scares you. Defense is aging and their scouting department isn't skilled enough to compensate.
3) Lions: Swartz will never win a title as a head coach because he can't control his emotions. Weak front office.
4) Bears: Their best shot at a title disappeared when they fired Smith. Old defense, grumpy QB.
5) Cardinals: no prospects of getting a championship level QB. If they get Palmer things get interesting, but they'd need to win it all this coming year because San Fran and Seattle are only going to get better
6) Rams: Questions at QB, lack of offensive talent. They'll compete, but too many questions.
7) Eagles: New coach, franchise QB not on the roster or in this coming draft. It's going to take them a few years to figure this thing out.
So how many NFC contenders does that make? Nine (San Fran, Seattle, Green Bay, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New York, Dallas, and Washington)! More than double the number in the AFC. So what does it mean? Will the NFC dominate super bowls for the next three years? Not necessarily. I think this level of lopsidedness, as I've explained it, means the NFC will be much more exciting to watch and follow than the AFC. I think it also means that offensive talent may migrate disproportionately towards the NFC due to the fact that there's a better crop of QBs there. Also, I think the AFC will be owned by Andrew Luck for the next five years because after Brady and Manning retire there won't be anyone close to his skill level. Finally, I think that after this year, if Brady or Manning don't win a title no AFC team is going to want to play the team that makes it out of the crucible that is the NFC.
Now, one might argue that the scenario I've outlined may change depending on the QBs that are drafted in the next three years. While an influx of talent could change impending NFC offensive dominance I doubt it will have much of a cumulative effect primarily because of the time it takes a team with a new QB to have playoff success. On top of that this year's QB talent is seriously lacking and next year's talent doesn't appear to be all that special either. Get ready NFL fans because the next three years should be fascinating!
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