Pre-Draft

I'll keep things brief because I think most drafts can be distilled into a few salient points. So here there are:

No QB is worth picking in the top 20
I don't care if any of them turn out to be franchise QBs. Drafts are about filling your team's need for good value. This year's QBs do not have consensus 1st round grades and that's important because the consensus in large part sets a player's draft value. No need to pick one of these guys 10+ spots before other teams would think about selecting them if you can wait, save money, and take the same player.

Teams that need a QB should pick a lineman instead
Colin Kaepernick and Russel Wilson were successful because they made a soft landing in their starting role, meaning they had a strong supporting cast in place to facilitate their talents. QBs like Andrew Luck don't come along very often, players that can virtually single-handedly dramatically elevate an entire team. Teams picking at the top of this draft need a QB, but they also don't have a strong supporting cast. This draft does not have a QB prospect that grades as transcendent so any QB a bad team takes is putting him in serious jeopardy of failure. Bad teams need to be boring in this draft. They need to build a foundation (lineman) that a QB can succeed in.

The success of most of this year's prospects will be determined by where they go
This is a "down" year for top talent. The players, as a collective, don't jump off the screen (there are a few that are quite good) and more so than ever their success will be determined by how they're used and coached and what environments they go to. Players with lots of "upside" and/or "character issues" will struggle with bad teams that ask a lot of them early on.

That's all for now I think. I'll have a lot more to say after the 1st round as much of what's been speculated will change in the next 24 hours. Here's a last little fun list.

Dumpster Fire Alert!
Jets: Lame duck coach, mentally shaken QB, the rebuilding process starts with the front lines
Browns: get another lineman to protect your temporary QB and stud RB
Raiders: for now have stopped the bleeding at QB, can make a difference in the division by building dominant d-line
Bills: could take a QB, but he better be a stud right away, HUGE risk if they take Nassib #8
Panthers: have to please an immature QB by bringing in talent, front office not that smart or savvy

Watch these teams and get smarter
Steelers
Packers
Colts
Ravens
Niners

Free Agency and other non-draft related news

Okay, this will be my last non-draft post before the big night Thursday.

Darrelle Revis: Great move by the Jets, risky move by the Bucs. First the Jets. Why Woody Johnson didn't fire Rex Ryan along with Tannanbaum and go into full rebuilding mode is a mystery to me, but so was bringing in Tebow. The Jets are a mess and it's going to take years to turn things around. Paying a corner $16 million a year when your QB situation is up in the air, your defensive line lacks a pass rush, and when you have one B+ weapon on offense would have been beyond idiotic. Corners are simply not that valuable, especially in a division where the best receiver is a 65 catch 10td a year speedster. In today's NFL offenses are too potent to shut down completely and the best teams in league have secondaries that aren't exceptional. Why? Because they're too busy spending more of their money where it counts; QBs, o-line, and pass rush. Defenses don't need to be dominant, just effective in the red-zone and opportunistic. Exceptional corners are icing on a cake, not a team's bread and butter. Great sign for the Jets that they let Revis go.

As for the Bucs I'm not all that excited about this move. Revis likely won't be in top form in 2013 simply due to the fact that full recovery from ACL (mentally and physically) typically takes a full year of playing. So the Bucs will have paid $16 million for 85% of Revis' best. Still a great corner, but not worth that money. One year of being overpaid. Let's say you get 100% of Revis in 2014 so now you're getting what you paid for, but will likely hinder your ability to sign other talent. In other words the Bucs have to win a championship in 2014 because after that year they'll have to renegotiate deals with Josh Freeman, Gerald McCoy, Mason Foster, Da'Quan Bowers, and Adrian Clayborn. Not mention other starters Mark Barron, Doug Martin, and Lavonte David will likely be looking for new deals as well. If they don't realize Revis' (over) value now they will by the offseason of 2014. Now the Bucs could win a championship in two years, but that would mean being at or near the top of a division with Atlanta and New Orleans and likely having to face the 49ers, Seahawks, and/or Giants in the playoffs. All 5 of these teams are more talented and/or better coached and/or managed than the Bucs. My guess is they will wish they had that 13th pick in this year's draft back when Revis holds out for guaranteed money after two years.

As for Revis the player, big applause for getting off the jet. As I mentioned before, that team is a mess. Their owner is a bit of a nut bag, their coach should be a d-coordinator, and their roster is one of the worst in the league. If the cost of leaving was signing a deal with no guaranteed money ($16 million is practically guaranteed) and you have confidence in your recovery then get the hell out of dodge. I think the rest of the league catches on and Revis takes a pay cut in two years. If he leaves the Bucs for another contract then his prospects of winning a title will be inversely proportional to the amount of money he makes.

Rolando McClain: Well that didn't take long. I don't think too much of McClain's recent disorderly conduct arrest in Alabama. Police in the south don't exactly have a pristine record when it comes to interacting with the public, and especially not with black folks. Still, it's not a good start, but rarely do people, especially rich young men, change overnight. The Ravens knew what they were getting with McClain; a talented young player who has not been in a professional environment and has picked up or been allowed to indulge some bad habits. A 1 year, $700,000 deal is not a big risk so if McClain doesn't get right then the Ravens aren't hurting themselves financially. Not trending well for the former Bama star.


The more things change the more things stay the same. All one has to do to predict the success of players that change teams is look at the contracts they sign. With the exception of QB, if a player signs a deal that's at, near, or over the highest paid at the position then you can bet their success with be fleeting. Desperate and/or below average front offices are willing to pay top dollar for talent they didn't draft while well run teams have confidence they can draft a younger equivalent. It's that simple.

More Free Agency

It's been a while, but the wheel of free agency has slowed a bit. Let's not waste any time!

Nnamdi Asomugha: Once again, the really really good teams bring in top free agent talent for cheap and with little risk. Asomugha clearly didn't fit the scheme in Philly and while the seeming lack of effort is somewhat bothersome, his talent is undeniable. He's not a physical as Charles Woodson or as talented, but he's not far off. If there's one weakness in the Niners roster it's the fact that their secondary isn't all that young or great in coverage. Asomugha likely won't make another pro bowl, but he's savvy and looking to prove he's still an elite player. Great signing.

Antoine Winfield: Winfield has been one of my favorite players for years. He's tenacious, has an extremely high football IQ, and is a tackling machine. The Seahawks and Niners are clearly engaged in a ever-escalating battle of somewhat subtle, but impactful moves that should make for at least two very competitive games in 2013. Winfield likely only plays for one year, but he brings a tremendous professionalism to one of the best secondaries in the league. Keep an eye on how Winfield is received by Richard Sherman, Seattle's most outspoken, and in my opinion brash, player. If you watch ESPN's First Take you know how Sherman can let people who shouldn't bother him bother him, which I think hints at a systemic immaturity on a T.O. or Ochocinco level. Winfield's not a perennial all-pro, but he's had a better carrier than 98% of DBs ever. Sherman doesn't have to take advantage of Winfield's experience and example, but if wants to better than Revis for more than just one year then he needs to take advantage of this opportunity. Great signing by the Seahawks.

Carson Palmer: When the draft doesn't offer you an opportunity to get "your guy" at the QB position the next best thing is signing a guy like Carson Palmer. I'm going to talk about player types in an upcoming post, but let me preview the subject a bit by saying that Palmer is not a team transcendent talent; meaning he's the type of player that is only very good to great when he has the right supporting cast. No QB can do it all, but at no point in his career has Carson Palmer been capable of doing what Andrew Luck did last year. That being said, Palmer still managed to throw for 4000 yards and 22tds with the Raiders' receivers (who led the league in drops I believe). Now Palmer has the 1st or 2nd best receiver in the game to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald. The worry is if the o-line can keep Palmer upright long enough to throw to the future hall-of-famer. But more so than completing throws this next season the Cardinals have stabilized their most volatile position and will be able to focus on building an o-line for their future franchise QB (who's not yet on the roster). Slam dunk!

Darrius Heyward-Bey: For about two decades Al Davis failed to realize that the NFL wasn't college football. His refusal to realize that physical talent in shorts mattered far less than football skills in pads is why this franchise will likely go through another GM and maybe several head coaches before they right the ship. Heyward-Bey was selected before Michael Crabtree in the 2009 draft in a move that had everyone scratching their heads. Heyward-Bey's speed is obvious, but so was the fact that he is a body catcher and that he didn't run crisp routes. To make matters worse, the Raiders coaching staff doesn't seem to have made much progress teaching Heyward-Bey the finer points of the game. I think this says more about the Raiders organization than it does Heyward-Bey. Luckily he has just signed with a truly professional organization and a QB I consider the best young player in the game. We're going to find out very quickly Heyward-Bey's potential in this league. I'm thinking Torrey Smith level at best, which is pretty damn good, but then again, maybe he's just not that good.

Patrick Chung/Kenny Phillips: I list these two together because if they can stay healthy then the Eagles will have made a fantastic move here. Phillips is one of the most talented safeties to come out of Miami, but has always been a health risk. Chung was not as heralded, but is flat out scary when he's on the field. I'd not be too optimistic that two vets with a fairly long history of being out can put it together, but look out if they can!

Rolando McClain: Boom or bust signing, emphasis on the boom! McClain was a highly rated prospect coming out of Alabama and I would argue the best middle linebacker prospect they've had since Ryans came out and was drafted by the Texans. McClain has flashed at times, but clearly didn't mesh with the culture in Oakland. The question is how much of that was his immaturity and how much was the fact that the Raiders were (and still are to some degree) a bad organization. We're going to find out now that he has signed with one of the best organizations in football. I really hope McClain reaches out to Ray Lewis and that Lewis is willing to work with him, because I think he (McClain) can be great, I'm talking all-pro for the next 5 years great. He's going to have to un-learn some bad habits, but that process will be no easier than in Baltimore. Like his former Raider teammate, we're going to know very quickly if McClain can resurrect his career. This guy should lead the AFC in tackles. If he's not starting and dominating by week 10 then I'm afraid he's probably never going to be what I think he is.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: I think the Titan's franchise QB is not on the roster and the signing of Fitzpatrick doesn't change that. His signing does however, somewhat fill the gapping hole left by Matt Hasselbeck's departure to the Colts. The jury is still out on Jake Locker and unless the Titans make spectacular moves in the draft on the offensive side of the ball they'll be looking for another franchise QB. If that happens then the Titans are prepared for it as Fitzpatrick will be cheap and likely has no delusions about his limitations. Moreover, if Locker gets hurt the Titans won't experience a sharp drop off in talent. Nice save after losing Hasselbeck.

That's likely to be all about free agency for a while. Next I think I'll turn my focus to the draft and discuss some prospects and team needs. Stay tuned!