It's been more than a week since the draft, which is a good time to begin analyzing what went down during the last weekend in April. I'm mostly going to talk about teams' first 2-3 rounds because that's where teams can really screw up. Overall this draft was extremely deep at many positions and offered a lot of intrigue for the nerdiest of football fans. I'll break down each team's draft in the order they picked in the first round. For my instant reactions to picks in the first round as they happened check out my
twitter page.
Kansas City Chiefs: SOLID
Got their guy in Eric Fisher, found great value in later rounds with Nico Johnson and Nile Davis. This is one of the most talented rosters to pick number one overall and will probably finish second in the division this year. Andy Reid knows what he's doing and this team executed their plan.
Jacksonville Jaguars: WEIRD
This team will probably be taking a QB number one overall next year so they're not going to see much impact in the win/loss column from this year's picks. Cyprien is a good prospect, but I don't understand drafting 2 safeties, 3 corners, and 2 wideouts in a draft with so many solid lineman prospects. The Jag's primary problem is QB, and unless Teddy Bridgewater is as good as Andrew Luck whomever they bring in at QB in 2014 is going to have very little to work with. Teams aren't built on the outside, they're built on the front lines. Missed opportunity for the Jags.
Miami Dolphins: DUMB
The Dolphins aren't a bad team, but they're not as good as they think they are. They overpaid for Mike Wallace, have failed to replace Jake Long, have no-one in the backfield that scares you, and have lost two playmaking corners in two years. Oh, and they have a second year QB that flashes, but will forever be in the shadow of Luck, RG3, and Wilson. Knowing all that, they trade up to draft a 250lb outside linebacker that has a history of being injured. If Dion Jordan isn't Aldon Smith by week 8 this is a colossal draft-day gaff. Moving up to pick a player in the top 3 means you think he will dominate early and though Jordan is a dynamic athlete his production and playing time are lacking. The rest of the Fins' draft was ho-hum. They addressed needs, but didn't appear to get players at particularly good value. It's all on Jordan, an oft injured 'tweener with not much production but tremendous upside. Yeah...
Philadelphia Eagles: VERY SOLID
I love it when teams "get their guy", when they select a player that apparently fits their system. Lane Johnson is arguably the most athletic tackle in the draft and given the style of offense Chip Kelly is likely to run this is a slam dunk fit. The Eagles' second round pick was even more tremendous, grabbing a TE that's ready to play week one of the preseason. Jury is out on Barkley, but one can't argue getting a former 1st round QB prospect in the fourth. This draft was about value and taking advantage of other teams passing on talent.
Detroit Lions: SUFFICIENT
The Lions' problem isn't their roster, it's their leadership. I'm a big seller on Jim Schwartz as a head coach because I think he has the emotional control of a 25 year old. Detroit loses games because they're not disciplined not because they lack talent. They can afford to bring Ansah along a bit slower than a normal 6th overall pick and they can even afford for him to be a bust. If Ansah develops, and he'll need a year I think, then this team will have an even nastier defensive front to reckon with. Unfortunately, they'll still have a sub-par o-line, sub-par linebackers, and a head coach that can't modulate his feelings. Green Bay is still the class of this division and the Lions will still struggle to do the little things well, no matter how good their d-line is.
Cleveland Browns: LIPSTICK ON A PIG
The Browns had five picks, 3 of which were in the 6th or 7th round. They weren't going to hit a homerun in this draft, but they had an opportunity to avoid making a reach with their first pick. They didn't do that. Mingo, like Jordan, is a tremendous athlete, and while his lack of production in his final year at LSU may have been partially due to a scheme change the fact of the matter is he failed to dominate the way a rush end should. Mingo comes to a division where he'll be asked to sack two QBs that weigh about as much as he does and who've won championships. The o-lines in this division don't scare easily and are particularly nasty. Unless Mingo, like Jordan, is Aldon Smith (Smith was picked at nearly the same spot two years ago) he's a bust. Having Kruger on the other side helps, but despite the sound logic of drafting to improve the d-line I think the Browns have acquired a B+ player for an A's job.
Arizona Cardinals: HOME-FRIGGIN-RUN!
I'll give an offseason division break-down soon, but as a preview I'll say now that the NFC WEST has had the best offseason and the best draft. I've never seen a guard move like Jonathan Cooper. He's fleet-footed and nasty at the point of attack. More importantly, however, he comes across a coachable, hungry, and self aware. Cooper steps in on day one and makes the entire o-line better. Minter is a great fit and will likely start given all-pro Darryl Washington's recent off-field troubles. Mathieu lands in the best possible place he could have and if he stays out of trouble will be an impact player. Think Percy Harvin on defense; unconventional, but makes big plays. Okafor is a tremendous value in the 4th and could notch 10+ sacks for the next 10 years. Swoope could be a poor-man's Wes Welker who'll be able to run free shielded by two big receivers in Fitzgerald and Floyd (forgot about him didn't you?). The Cards have defensive talent and are stable at the QB position with weapons to deploy. If their o-line holds they'll be a tough opponent every week. Tremendous draft!
St. Louis Rams: BETTER THAN YOU THINK
Moving up to Austin was big, and grabbing Olgetree was fortuitous, but I think the selections of McDonald and Jones were the biggest values. USC players haven't enjoyed recent success and if McDonald is a younger version of Taylor Mays then I'll eat my words. I don't think he is and on the other side of the bust coin is a perennial pro-bowler. How Barrett Jones falls to the 4th I don't know. He may not be a 10 time pro-bowler, but he'll definitely be a guy you'd never want to be without. The Rams plugged holes with quality players and have a head coach that will maximize talent, especially the defensive rookies. If Olgetree doesn't pan out then the Rams still have a solid linebacking crew. If he does, look out! Austin is likely to be an impact player while Baliey may be underrated. The Rams are keeping pace with the other teams in the division. Great Draft!
New York Jets: FRUSTRATING
I originally hated the Jets' first two picks. I still don't like them, but they may turn out to be okay. They didn't need a corner, but they got the best one in the draft. Letting go of Revis was smart, but drafting a corner to replace him with the first pick is like selling your broken down Ferrari 458 because you need to remodel the house and then buying a 350Z. Outstanding corners aren't the difference makers they used to be, especially when the one you pick has hands like feet. D-tackles are a crap shoot and Richardson wasn't nearly as disruptive as Floyd in college. Moreover, Richardson isn't likely to be a force as a pass-rusher as the best pass-rushing DT, Ndamukong Suh, averages 6.4 sacks a year. Richardson isn't Suh. Geno Smith creates more turmoil at the QB position and he's not even a top prospect. That's a whole lot of trouble for a questionable talent. The rest of the picks are devoid of any talent from southern schools, which is like choosing to build a house out of balsa wood when there's oak available. Maybe John Idzik is smarter than all of us, but it's hard to see how the Jet's avoid being much better than they were last year with no offensive talent and a potential Revis with worse hands.
Tennessee Titans: STATUS QUO
And by status quo I mean status quo for a team that selects a college QB with accuracy issues with the 8th overall pick. Tennessee made a mistake drafting Jake Locker as a franchise QB and they are in the final act of that experiment. They helped themselves by drafting a tremendous guard (the player the Jets should have taken), but then reached with their second round pick. Hunter has 'upside', but lacked production. Now he's going to a receiving corps where the best player at the wideout position is one of the biggest knuckleheads their is. Hunter needs to learn from a talented professional and there aren't any in Tennessee. The rest of the picks aren't terrible, but the Titans didn't get much better in this draft.
San Diego Chargers: QUIETLY EXCELLENT
One team's mistakes are another team's fortune. The Jet's passed on two 'Bama o-lineman and the second goes to the Chargers, a prospect they desperately needed. If Philip Rivers hasn't recognized the wisdom of the Manning family's refusal to let Eli play for Chargers in 2004 he does now. This franchise shot itself in both feet the minute they fired 14-2 head coach Marty Schottenheimer to hire Norv Turner. Thankfully that era is over, but it's likely cost their franchise QB any shot at a title. With all that being said the Bolts' first three picks were fantastic. Fluker is a known commodity and will be a solid right tackle. Te'o is still overrated in my mind because he'll be a liability on third down, but getting him the second round is not a reach. Allen is the best receiver in this draft by far and will be an impact player in this league. He might be the steal of the draft. If the Chargers' remaining three picks pan out then it's icing on a very tasty draft cake.
Oakland Raiders: THEY'VE GOT A PLAN
To be fair, Al Davis had a plan too, it was just terrible bordering on insane. If D.J. Hayden doesn't almost die on the practice field I think he's the first corner off the board. More fluid and better ball skills than Milliner though he's not as polished. Hayden looks like Charles Woodson when he's on the field and should be a solid pro. The Raiders use their second round pick on an o-lineman that could have gone in the first and then grab a linebacker that probably starts on day one. What's clear from the Raider's draft and offseason is that they are cleaning house and bringing in players that will create a solid foundation. The franchise QB is likely not on this team (though some folks rave about their 4th round pick Kasa) so the Raiders did what all bad teams should do when no top QB prospects are available, draft solid players that play close to the line of scrimmage and impact players on the outside. There's hope in Oakland.
Carolina Panthers: HORRIBLE
This front office has no idea what it's doing. Great pick scooping up the falling Star (ha!), but then you turn around and take another d-tackle...from PURDUE?! If there's one thing that you never want to see in the scouting report for a d-lineman it's lack of effort. Guess what the biggest drawback on Short was? Lotulelei is enough to protect your all-world LB Luke Kuchley, why spend a high pick on another player who doesn't show up on every play?! The Panthers don't draft an offensive skill position player until the 6th round and guess what position he plays? Running back! A position they already have three potential starters filling. I can't figure the Panthers out. I'm not big on Cam Newton, but it's clear the offensive coaching staff is in over their head trying to figure out ways to utilize him. Ron Rivera is becoming the likable Rex Ryan of the NFC, too focused on defense and lost on offense. Cam goes nuclear when his aging and oft injured supporting cast fail to perform. Coach and GM fired by the end of the year.
New Orleans Saints: HIT A TRIPLE WHEN ALL THEY NEEDED WAS A SAC FLY
Long synopsis, but I think that says it all. The Saints are going to be back to scoring 30+ a game because their QB is fantastic and their mastermind...er...head coach is back. This team feels like Goodell stole a season from them and they're looking to double you up on Sunday. Is their defense good to great? Nope. It doesn't need to be because your team probably can't score with them. Did their defense get better? You bet. Vacorro is a solid pick at 15 and addresses the issue of Roman Harper not being able to cover effectively in space. Jon Jenkins is a steal in the third round and Kenny Stills is an under the radar talent that will benefit from the professional atmosphere in NO. The Saints were likely going to make the playoffs without any of these picks. Now, they'll be that much better.
Buffalo Bills: UNDERACHIEVERS
The best thing the Bills did in this draft was trade down. Unfortunately they seemed to have used all of their savvy on that move because their next four picks are terrible. None of these prospects were consistent performers in college, which means the Bills are hoping all of these guys will do something they've never done before -- consistently perform -- against much tougher competition over a longer season. Really?! Manuel was the biggest reach of this draft and though he may turn out to be good, no other team was likely thinking of him before round 2. Bad value. Robert Woods completely disappeared once Marquise Lee emerged at USC, a characteristic that can be said of no top pro wideout. Is Woods Steve Smith? He better be three times better because he reminds me more of Kerry Colbert. Are those guys even still playing? Kiko Alonso has off-field issues and Goodwin might be a special teams star, but isn't a polished receiver. E.J. Manuel could be this year's Russell Wilson in that his work ethic and dedication may overcome his shortcomings as a prospect. Wilson's issue was height, Manuel's is poise against tough competition. Both young men have outstanding character so if Manuel pans out the Bills can say I told you so. Right now they appear to be running the desperate team draft playbook.
Pittsburg Steelers: SAME STEELERS, DIFFERENT DRAFT
The Steelers have a knack for taking players other teams in their division should have taken. The Browns should have taken Jarvis Jones at 6 rather than Mingo. Jones was more productive in college, is more polished, and is better built to play in this division. He fits perfectly with the Steeler style of play and won't face the double teams Mingo will because Lamar Woodley is on the other side and Dick Lebeau is the Voldermort of defenses. Bell was a bit of a surprise, but is another great fit for Pittsburg's style of play, a huge back that can catch the ball out of the backfield. Big Ten running backs make me nervous because they don't face fast defenses, but I'll trust the Steelers on this pick. I have the feeling that Wheaton is another wideout in the undersized, but always open, mold of Antonio Brown. Shamarko Thomas is my most underrated player in this draft is a fantastic fit for this defense. He'll make plays all over the field and will learn from one of the best in Troy Polamalu. The value difference between Mingo at 6 and Jones at 17 is about the intelligence difference between these two teams' respective front offices.
San Francisco 49ers: ONE NEED FILLED
And that's all the niners needed to do. I don't love moving up to grab a player that's likely to be around when you're originally slated to pick, but when you can afford to get exactly what you want you pay. Eric Reid was a difference maker his junior year and now that he's graduated from Les Miles' staff to Harbaugh's he's likely to regain his form. The rest of the Niners picks likely won't see the field until they either recover from injury or develop under good coaching. It's clear the Niners think Justin Smith is on his last leg and if Tank Carradine can recover from his knee injury they likely won't miss a beat. Lattimore isn't the long term solution at RB due to his multiple knee injuries, but that's the same thing people said about Lattimore's new teammate, Frank Gore, after three ALC tears. Like the Saints, the Niners could have forfeited all their picks and still been a super bowl contender. They've got a fantastic environment for young, banged up, talented players to develop. A luxury most teams don't have.
New York Giants: DON'T LOVE IT, BUT WHO CARES
If Eli Manning is playing well down the stretch then this team will make the postseason. The Giants are a team of professionals. Like the San Antonio Spurs, the Giants aren't the most talented team, they simply play well because they have a great internal scoreboard and have fantastic leadership. Pugh and Hankins were reaches and Moore's work ethic is questionable. So what. If these players want to be good or great they'll have every opportunity to develop with the Giants. This team molds talent and they drafted some good clay.
Chicago Bears: PANICKED BUT RECOVERED
Tremendous reach with Kyle Long in the first round, but addressed key needs with LB picks in the next two rounds. It's really hard to justify Long over the likes of Eifert, Elam, Floyd, or Olgetree. The Bears are lost for the most part after firing a coach who was popular among players and who lead the team to a 10-6 record. It's doubtful they improve on last year before they rebuild the defense. Long is not the difference maker on the o-line they need and I wonder how much longer Cutler can last having to play Clay Mathews, the Lions, and now Minnesota's even more formidable d-line. Brandon Marshall might catch have to 150 balls this year.
Cincinnati Bengals: SOLID
Eifert shouldn't have fallen past the G-men and definitely not past Chicago. Cincy doesn't need him, but he does present serious match-up problems to opposing defenses in the division. Bernard is a difference maker that further relieves the pressure off budding superstar wideout A.J. Green, and while Margus Hunt in the second round is a tremendous reach I think the Bengals make good on solid defensive prospects from the SEC with their next two picks. Ultimately Andy Dalton is probably too limited to win a championship, but then again if Matt Schaub has a shot so does Dalton if the Bengals keep improving their roster like.
Atlanta Falcons: DID THE BEST THEY COULD
Atlanta has a
primary flaw that keeps them from winning a championship this year: they have no pass rush. Atlanta can score points with anyone, and Matty Ice is the boogie man in the two minute drill, but if you're the Niners, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, or Packers you like your chances at either outscoring the Falcons or getting that one crucial stop in the second half. Desmond Trufant is a good pro prospect, but he does nothing to help you contain Kaepernick, Wilson, or Rodgers when they scramble for a crucial 3rd and 8. As scary as Roddy White and Julio Jones are, Drew Brees and Sean Payton scare a defenses more. For now Atlanta has to hope they don't get a team's best come playoff time because they have no answer for stopping the other really good teams in the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings: FADE TO WTF
Great value pick scooping up the best DT prospect at 23 overall. Nice pick filling a need with a corner that's not afraid to face Rodgers or Stafford. Totally idiotic coming back into the first round to take a developmental wideout. My completely subjective observation of Patterson is he's not mature enough to handle the spotlight. Looked completely enamored with the total superficiality of being in NY for the draft; went back two or three times to sip the hype koolaid and bask in the glory of being a draft pick. Guys like that worry me, but he'll have a quality mentor in Greg Jennings, I'm just not sure he'll listen. The Vikes need something this draft didn't have, a franchise QB prospect. I don't think they make the playoffs this year, but this isn't a bad team. Their defense got better and their offense is stable for now. I'm just not sure they can afford to give up picks for a prospect like Patterson.
Indianapolis Colts: NO ONE SEES THEM COMING
In three years when Andrew Luck and the Colts are dominating the AFC few people will recognize the 2013 offseason for what it meant for the Colts' success. When you have a transcendent talent at QB drafting top skill position talent becomes less important. The Colts know that they must first dominate the line of scrimmage. Think it's a coincidence that the first four picks the Colts make in this draft were lineman, two on O and two on D? How do you make Andrew Luck better? Give him more time to throw and give the opposing QB less time. The Colts know how to win games and they understand their team. After Brady and Manning retire, and maybe even before then, this conference belongs to Andrew Luck.
Green Bay Packers: PROFESSIONAL DRAFTIFICATION
This team is about as cool, calm, and focused as liquid nitrogen in chest freezer. They address three key needs from last year; more help rushing the passer, upgrade an anemic running game with two outstanding RB prospects, and fortify the o-line with youth and intelligence. The Packers' front office don't reach, they execute their plan knowing that they have one of the best QBs in the game and a philosophy that ensures they've always got young, capable talent. Just another day at NFC NORTH & COMPANY: They own this division.
Houston Texans: SOLID
Houston's limitations are at QB and head coach. Both guys are B to B+, but seem to fade in big moments. Like Detroit, their issues won't be solved by adding talent, they'll be solved when the team overcomes their leadership...or gets lucky. Hopkins is a nice addition to the receiving corps as are the next three picks to their respective positions. Great, swell, terrific, but unless Schaub can connect on those deep over the middle throws he missed in the playoffs, or until Kubiak can make better halftime adjustments the Texans will be stuck adding prospects in the high twenties of the draft and not at 31 or 32.
Denver Broncos: WAIT, THERE WAS A DRAFT?
Williams and Ball are the only prospects that make a difference on a 2013 Broncos team that should play it's final game in February. That being said I think they had a very solid draft, though they didn't need to. When Manning retires this team gets blown up and the only players that stay are guaranteed to stay are D. Thomas, R. Clady, and V. Miller. John Elway is likely thinking beyond the Manning era, but it's not likely this year or next year's draft turn the tide on the Broncos' fortunes. If they don't win now (almost) everyone they have or will add over the next 4 years is expendable.
Dallas Cowboys: INSANE
And I don't mean that in a good way. It's hard to fathom the magnitude and/or flavor of delusions Jerry Jones feeds his ego, but whatever they may be he's doing himself about as much good remaining GM as a diabetic does on an strict ice cream diet. Jones is an awful GM and awful GMs take 3rd round centers in the first round. Like the Texans and Lions, the Cowboys' problem is psychology not talent. Delusional GM/owner plus passive head coach plus a QB with below average assertiveness equals perpetual disappointment. Jerry Jones keeps expecting a different outcome despite making the same incompetent decisions as a GM.
Baltimore Ravens: CAPTAINS OF COOL
I still stand by my
bold prediction for the Ravens, but it should be clear to everyone that Ozzie Newsome is just smarter than us. Despite losing 2 hall of famers, multiple all-pros, and several up and coming players the Ravens have quietly rebuilt their team. Elam at 32 is the best value pick of the first round and while no player can replace Ed Reed, Matt Elam looks to be good enough to be considered the next great Ravens safety. Arthur Brown will likely be better than Manti Te'o as it seems
John Harbaugh's reaction to Te'o's 40 time was genuine. The Ravens know what they're doing even if we don't. They'll be just fine.
New England Patriots: THIS ONE COUNTS
New England has one glaring need, an impact wideout. Belichick does the smart thing and trades down because this draft doesn't have an obvious round one WR prospect. Every Pats pick is intriguing because Belichick knows so much about football we do. For now assume their first two prospects are eventually impact players and know that they'll win their division and host a home playoff game this year. Still, the end looms closer and closer on the horizon.
Seattle Seahawks: LATE ROUND VALUE
Jesse Williams in the 5th and Spencer Ware in the 6th were two picks I couldn't believe slipped as far as they did. Pete Carroll is not a detail oriented coach who I think was equal parts lucky as he was savvy by taking Wilson in the 3rd round last year. Not an overly impressive draft, but maybe Carroll is better at this than I think. Time will tell...
Washington Racists: MEH...
That's about all I can say for this team's draft. No glaring needs on either side of the ball coupled with no first round picks in a low talent ceiling draft equals prospects you've never heard of. All that matters is RG3's knee. He is the heart and soul of this team. If he's playing then the entire team plays better. All Shanahan needs is a dynamic QB that can run a bootleg, a solid running game, and a defense that can make key stops late in games. Washington drafts defensive players, RBs, and a TE. This is what you get when you look at the draft menu and say, "I'll have a Shanahan".
And that about wraps it up folks. Look for my offseason review coming soon!
