I love this time of year! The only thing better than the NFL season is the anticipation and intrigue of preparing for the NFL season. So many questions, so much potential, so many surprises to come. It's been a while since I last posted so let's get caught up on some the top stories heading at the start of training camp.
Von Miller's (potential) suspension
I'm not sure if this is Miller's second or third offense, but this is a bit worrisome. His talent is undeniable, but so was Shawne Merriman's. For Merriman first there were rumors that he was using illegal substances, then came the suspensions, and then there this hot mess of a situation. I'm not saying Von Miller's judgement is as poor as Merriman's, but we've seen stories that begin like Miller's ultimately end up in the toilet. Right now Miller is adamant about having done nothing wrong and unfortunately he's wrong about that. Hopefully he learns from this situation and exercises better judgement so that he can do what he loves for many more years and get paid millions to do it.
The Cowboys
It's funny to listen to commentators report on the Cowboys, how talented they are, how over or underrated Tony Romo is, how they just need to put "it" together, and to listen to how absurdly optimistic Jerry Jones is. Look, the Cowboys are a talented team, not just on paper, but on the field. The problem with the Cowboys has and, given their owner's mentality, will always be leadership. Jerry Jones is delusional about how to effectively run a franchise, Jason Garrett is not a commanding presence, and Tony Romo is Brett Favre lite - undeniable talent, but questionable decision making in big moments. There is nothing in the Cowboys' history that suggests this year will be particularly different from previous years. Perhaps the division is not as strong as it's been in the past which gives the Boys better prospects of making the playoffs, but teams outside the division are much stronger. Seattle has more talent and are impossible to throw against; San Fran is younger, tougher, and has one of the top three coaches in the league; Atlanta is hungry and you can't stop their passing game; New Orleans has a chip on their shoulder and their QB/Coach combo might be the best in the league; and Green Bay just got a running game to pair with a QB that on his off days makes most D's look silly. I just don't see the mental toughness teams need to win it all in any of Cowboys leadership.
Geno Smith watch
I'll defend Geno on not going to the Sanchez passing camp. No need to pretend that he and Sanchez are going to be the best of friends. The Jets drafted Smith because they think he's got a shot at being their starting QB, which means Sanchez could be out of the job. Ain't nuthin nice. The only drawback with not attending the camp is that Geno won't get a head start at getting to know the current Jets' receivers. Advantage Sanchez, though he already had this advantage from the get go. Bottom line is Smith will have to be significantly better than Sanchez in camp and preseason to take his job. The fact that he, Smith, was taken in the second round suggest the Jets are not completely sold on him as their guy. By the end of the second preseason game we'll know what kind of NFL QB Geno Smith is and that's exciting.
Sophomore QBs
I include Colin Kaepernick in this category because he's only made ten starts going into his third year in the league. Heck, I'll even throw Cam Newton into this because, well, I want to talk about him in this context. What an exciting time to be a fan of the NFL! We've got young talent at the most important position that should provide a decade of exciting football entertainment. There's one guy among the five in this category I have no doubts about and that guy is Andrew Luck. He's exactly what we thought he'd be coming out of Stanford and has shown almost no weakness in his game. He's simply better than any of the other young QBs out there and is poised to dominate the AFC for a long long time.
Kaepernick vs. Wilson
I struggled with who to list first behind Luck in this category. Kaepernick has the better supporting cast, the better coach, and the better body. Wilson is more mature and seems to have the work ethic of a Brady, Manning, or Brees. Not that Kaep is a slacker, because it appears that he's just as hard a worker. It comes down to offeseason visibility for me in terms of work ethic. I like Wilson's offseason better than Kaeps mainly because you didn't hear anything from Wilson except for an interview or two at the Super Bowl. Kaep's been all over the place and while it's hard not to embrace stardom after such a compelling season and playoff performance I'm not exactly excited about how much I've seen Kaepernick. To his credit he's kept his nose clean and seems to know how to handle the spotlight. The biggest thing to watch will be to see how these young fellas handle the adversity that's coming their way. The NFL is a tough league to have success in and it gets exponentially tougher when teams are motivated to stop you and not surprised by your abilities. Great players are the ones who can't be stopped even if the opponents they're facing know what's coming. I'll give the slight edge to Wilson in being able to adapt to the changes defenses have made in the offseason because his game is tougher to stop in the long run. It's really close though.
Cam Newton
Technically not a sophomore QB, but definitely entering the most important year of his young career. It's not fair that Newton is handicapped by an offense and front office that doesn't appear to be very talented. I've been hard on Cam in the past and have begun to come around to the fact that he simply hasn't had the support a QB needs to be elite. That being said Newton has not done himself any favors by the way he's handled some of his adversity. My biggest criticism of Newton was that he didn't appear to be mature enough to handle the pressure of being an NFL QB. Finishing 5-1 to end the season was a big step in the right direction so I'm eager to see how they start the year. Cam's been quiet this offseason which bodes well for his development as a pro. This young man's talent is unbelievable and if he becomes a Rodgers or a Brees or even a Luck upstairs then he'll be the best QB this league has ever seen.
RGIII
It comes down to staying healthy for RGIII. Unless he can figure a way to suppress his instincts to use his word class speed he'll be out of the league in 7 years or less. If RGIII had Cam Netwon's body he'd be the first QB on this list because the young man is fantastically mature and a great leader to go along with his physical talents. I just don't think he can play at a high level in this league because his body won't be able to take the punishment. It'll be fun while it lasts though.
What about Tannehill? What about him. He's in a similar situation as Cam Newton, poor supporting cast, and is less talented. The Dolphins organization hasn't figured out how to succeed in this league post Don Shula and until they do any talent at QB they bring in short of another Andrew Luck will struggle. Tannehill's got talent, but not enough to overcome a bad organization.
Jeremy Maclin
Devastating is the word that comes to mind. This guy is a fantastic talent (I'd take a healthy version of him over D. Jackson) but his body simply hasn't allowed him to succeed. Even worse is that this latest injury happened in a contract year. The cruel bottom line is Maclin has not been worth the money he's been paid. He's simply too injury prone to depend on. If I were GM of the eagles I'd offer him another contract because he's been a great pro and player for the organization, but I realize that he'll probably get a better offer from another team that's more desperate for receiver talent. Is Maclin's career over? Technically no, but it's hard to imagine him being an elite number 1 or 2 receiver in this league.
Dennis Pita
First of all how painful must it be to dislocate you hip?! Another tough contract year injury, but in this case I'd resign Pita, so long as he makes good rehab progress, to a contract as if the injury had not occurred. This young man was on his way to becoming a very good player and given the injury and his position he'll likely make a full recovery. He's proven he can play big in big games and because the Ravens don't have a lot of money tied up in offensive talent they can afford to pay Pita what he's worth, a healthy Pita that is. Let's talk more about the Ravens' 2013 outlook.
The Ravens
Don't be surprised if Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce both rush for 1000 yards. As I've said before the Ravens are going to struggle to win another championship with Flacco at the helm, but they're going to be competitive to very good for the next 5 years. The signing of run blocking guru Vonta Leach is very telling about the Ravens' philosophy going into 2013. They've got two outstanding running backs, a championship QB, fast receivers, and a young, but talented D. They're going to run on you, play action pass over you, and play smart and fast on defense. With this roster and coaching staff that's good enough to earn a wildcard spot. Then again, they could finish 6-10. The wizard called Oz would love that come draft time...
Mario Williams
What a talent, what potential, what a colossal financial mistake by the Bills. I think Mario Williams in a 3-4 defense makes about as much sense as Louis Farrakhan at a pig roast. That being said, why is it that guys that do things like this end up with careers that look like what we're seeing from "Super" Mario? I hope he get's better soon, but I'm not so sure he's in the right place, mentally or physically, to rehab his career.
More thoughts on the league next week!
Von Miller's (potential) suspension
I'm not sure if this is Miller's second or third offense, but this is a bit worrisome. His talent is undeniable, but so was Shawne Merriman's. For Merriman first there were rumors that he was using illegal substances, then came the suspensions, and then there this hot mess of a situation. I'm not saying Von Miller's judgement is as poor as Merriman's, but we've seen stories that begin like Miller's ultimately end up in the toilet. Right now Miller is adamant about having done nothing wrong and unfortunately he's wrong about that. Hopefully he learns from this situation and exercises better judgement so that he can do what he loves for many more years and get paid millions to do it.
The Cowboys
It's funny to listen to commentators report on the Cowboys, how talented they are, how over or underrated Tony Romo is, how they just need to put "it" together, and to listen to how absurdly optimistic Jerry Jones is. Look, the Cowboys are a talented team, not just on paper, but on the field. The problem with the Cowboys has and, given their owner's mentality, will always be leadership. Jerry Jones is delusional about how to effectively run a franchise, Jason Garrett is not a commanding presence, and Tony Romo is Brett Favre lite - undeniable talent, but questionable decision making in big moments. There is nothing in the Cowboys' history that suggests this year will be particularly different from previous years. Perhaps the division is not as strong as it's been in the past which gives the Boys better prospects of making the playoffs, but teams outside the division are much stronger. Seattle has more talent and are impossible to throw against; San Fran is younger, tougher, and has one of the top three coaches in the league; Atlanta is hungry and you can't stop their passing game; New Orleans has a chip on their shoulder and their QB/Coach combo might be the best in the league; and Green Bay just got a running game to pair with a QB that on his off days makes most D's look silly. I just don't see the mental toughness teams need to win it all in any of Cowboys leadership.
Geno Smith watch
I'll defend Geno on not going to the Sanchez passing camp. No need to pretend that he and Sanchez are going to be the best of friends. The Jets drafted Smith because they think he's got a shot at being their starting QB, which means Sanchez could be out of the job. Ain't nuthin nice. The only drawback with not attending the camp is that Geno won't get a head start at getting to know the current Jets' receivers. Advantage Sanchez, though he already had this advantage from the get go. Bottom line is Smith will have to be significantly better than Sanchez in camp and preseason to take his job. The fact that he, Smith, was taken in the second round suggest the Jets are not completely sold on him as their guy. By the end of the second preseason game we'll know what kind of NFL QB Geno Smith is and that's exciting.
Sophomore QBs
I include Colin Kaepernick in this category because he's only made ten starts going into his third year in the league. Heck, I'll even throw Cam Newton into this because, well, I want to talk about him in this context. What an exciting time to be a fan of the NFL! We've got young talent at the most important position that should provide a decade of exciting football entertainment. There's one guy among the five in this category I have no doubts about and that guy is Andrew Luck. He's exactly what we thought he'd be coming out of Stanford and has shown almost no weakness in his game. He's simply better than any of the other young QBs out there and is poised to dominate the AFC for a long long time.
Kaepernick vs. Wilson
I struggled with who to list first behind Luck in this category. Kaepernick has the better supporting cast, the better coach, and the better body. Wilson is more mature and seems to have the work ethic of a Brady, Manning, or Brees. Not that Kaep is a slacker, because it appears that he's just as hard a worker. It comes down to offeseason visibility for me in terms of work ethic. I like Wilson's offseason better than Kaeps mainly because you didn't hear anything from Wilson except for an interview or two at the Super Bowl. Kaep's been all over the place and while it's hard not to embrace stardom after such a compelling season and playoff performance I'm not exactly excited about how much I've seen Kaepernick. To his credit he's kept his nose clean and seems to know how to handle the spotlight. The biggest thing to watch will be to see how these young fellas handle the adversity that's coming their way. The NFL is a tough league to have success in and it gets exponentially tougher when teams are motivated to stop you and not surprised by your abilities. Great players are the ones who can't be stopped even if the opponents they're facing know what's coming. I'll give the slight edge to Wilson in being able to adapt to the changes defenses have made in the offseason because his game is tougher to stop in the long run. It's really close though.
Cam Newton
Technically not a sophomore QB, but definitely entering the most important year of his young career. It's not fair that Newton is handicapped by an offense and front office that doesn't appear to be very talented. I've been hard on Cam in the past and have begun to come around to the fact that he simply hasn't had the support a QB needs to be elite. That being said Newton has not done himself any favors by the way he's handled some of his adversity. My biggest criticism of Newton was that he didn't appear to be mature enough to handle the pressure of being an NFL QB. Finishing 5-1 to end the season was a big step in the right direction so I'm eager to see how they start the year. Cam's been quiet this offseason which bodes well for his development as a pro. This young man's talent is unbelievable and if he becomes a Rodgers or a Brees or even a Luck upstairs then he'll be the best QB this league has ever seen.
RGIII
It comes down to staying healthy for RGIII. Unless he can figure a way to suppress his instincts to use his word class speed he'll be out of the league in 7 years or less. If RGIII had Cam Netwon's body he'd be the first QB on this list because the young man is fantastically mature and a great leader to go along with his physical talents. I just don't think he can play at a high level in this league because his body won't be able to take the punishment. It'll be fun while it lasts though.
What about Tannehill? What about him. He's in a similar situation as Cam Newton, poor supporting cast, and is less talented. The Dolphins organization hasn't figured out how to succeed in this league post Don Shula and until they do any talent at QB they bring in short of another Andrew Luck will struggle. Tannehill's got talent, but not enough to overcome a bad organization.
Jeremy Maclin
Devastating is the word that comes to mind. This guy is a fantastic talent (I'd take a healthy version of him over D. Jackson) but his body simply hasn't allowed him to succeed. Even worse is that this latest injury happened in a contract year. The cruel bottom line is Maclin has not been worth the money he's been paid. He's simply too injury prone to depend on. If I were GM of the eagles I'd offer him another contract because he's been a great pro and player for the organization, but I realize that he'll probably get a better offer from another team that's more desperate for receiver talent. Is Maclin's career over? Technically no, but it's hard to imagine him being an elite number 1 or 2 receiver in this league.
Dennis Pita
First of all how painful must it be to dislocate you hip?! Another tough contract year injury, but in this case I'd resign Pita, so long as he makes good rehab progress, to a contract as if the injury had not occurred. This young man was on his way to becoming a very good player and given the injury and his position he'll likely make a full recovery. He's proven he can play big in big games and because the Ravens don't have a lot of money tied up in offensive talent they can afford to pay Pita what he's worth, a healthy Pita that is. Let's talk more about the Ravens' 2013 outlook.
The Ravens
Don't be surprised if Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce both rush for 1000 yards. As I've said before the Ravens are going to struggle to win another championship with Flacco at the helm, but they're going to be competitive to very good for the next 5 years. The signing of run blocking guru Vonta Leach is very telling about the Ravens' philosophy going into 2013. They've got two outstanding running backs, a championship QB, fast receivers, and a young, but talented D. They're going to run on you, play action pass over you, and play smart and fast on defense. With this roster and coaching staff that's good enough to earn a wildcard spot. Then again, they could finish 6-10. The wizard called Oz would love that come draft time...
Mario Williams
What a talent, what potential, what a colossal financial mistake by the Bills. I think Mario Williams in a 3-4 defense makes about as much sense as Louis Farrakhan at a pig roast. That being said, why is it that guys that do things like this end up with careers that look like what we're seeing from "Super" Mario? I hope he get's better soon, but I'm not so sure he's in the right place, mentally or physically, to rehab his career.
More thoughts on the league next week!
