Offseason Preview: NFC WEST

This is one of the most exciting and best divisions in football. Two dynamic young QBs on talented young rosters and two other teams that are a QB and a few other pieces away from being really good. Lastly, every team has a solid head coach that should be with their respective team for the forseeable future.

49ers: The 49ers are loaded like a college student at a free Chipotle promotion. Their needs are few, but they are glaring. Kaepernick will continue to develop, but he needs receivers, dynamic, down field threats that can create matchup problems. Second, the 9ers need to find a replacement for Frank Gore. They may have one in Marcus Latimore, but I have my doubts that lightning has struck twice with a running back on knees with multiple severe injuries. Lastly, the 49ers need to make sure they stay young on both lines. This team wins games because their fat guys beat the crap out of your team's fat guys and that formula will always be successful. No matter the outcome of this season I think the 49ers are significantly better in 2014 barring an injury to Kaepernick.

Cardinals: This defense is tremendously talented from top to bottom and their receivers are dynamic. The Cardinals can't block anyone effectively and need a dynamic QB to lead the offense. Carson Palmer is a great veteran stop gap QB and could help the team win games next year if the o-line can keep him upright. Losing Johnathan Cooper this past preseason was a huge blow, but if the Cardinals continue to build along the offensive line they'll begin to make noise in the league's best division.

Rams: Their top priority needs to be figuring out the QB position. Bradford is lost for the rest of the year and shouldn't be resigned to a franchise QB sized deal. It's not completely Bradford's fault that his career has sputtered, but at this point the Rams can't afford to find out if he can turn things around, not with how successful rookie QBs have been over the last two years. I see this team using one of two strategies this offseason: 1) Draft a mobile franchise calibur QB that can make plays without a strong supporting cast (the Rams don't have one) or 2) Improve the supporting cast, resign Bradford as their starter, and stockpile picks to have a shot at the 2015 class of QBs. The only QB I think that fits into strategy 1 is Teddy Bridgewater. Johnny Manziel might seem to fit, but I don't think he and Jeff Fisher would mix well, plus Manziel would be seriously outmatched against the 49ers and Seahawks' respective defenses. Strategy 2 gives the Rams an opportunity at Jameis Winston in 2015. Very little needs to be done with this defense as it's pretty solid and young. Whichever team, Cards or Rams, gets better first is the team that gets their franchise QB.

Seahawks: The only roster that's in better shape than the 49ers is this team. They'll have some tough salary cap decisions to make in the next two years and because of the cheap talent they've acquired they'll need to spend most of their time deciding who they can let go when the time comes. If Seattle wins a championship, a very likely possibility for the next two years at least, then the personnel decisions they make come 2016 will determine their long term success. A team's success is sustained year after year when they have a good QB and good offensive and defensive lines. If I'm Seattle's GM then I make sure I budget for keeping Russell Wilson and the continual acquisition of a talented youth across both lines. Guys like Sherman and Browner are great, but they won't be worth big contracts because corners simply aren't that valuable to a team, not even shut down corners. Tampa Bay supposedly has one of the top secondaries in the league and haven't been able to win a game. Seattle should keep their business quiet and think/plan very earnestly for the future. If in the coming draft they select big name skill position players (outside of a big/fast receiver) then you'll know they're off track. Like San Fran, Seattle needs to keep things boring in terms of the offseason.

Week 8: Ten Takeaways

1) I underestimated the Colts. Their performance against the Broncos was remarkable. That being said their probability of getting to the Super Bowl has dropped significantly with the loss of Reggie Wayne. A healthy Colts team would be my favorite to win the AFC. They’d likely play Manning in Denver and with the combination of Peyton’s big game shrinkage and the weather I’d give the edge to the more physical team whose QB has better feet. I’ve said that this division belongs to the Colts once Manning and Brady retire. They may have it locked down already.

2) Peyton Manning is limited above the shoulders. That feels tremendously odd to write, but after his latest effort in a big game I can no longer convince myself that he’s in the discussion for the GOAT. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton is  one of the smartest and most capable QBs to ever play the game, but he is clearly not good at one thing that all the other superior QBs are good at, playing their best in big games. I think Peyton is like this because he’s so regimented in how he prepares and how he plays. He can make some of the best in game adjustments that have ever been made, but Peyton stumbles to find that calm focus so he can tap into his tremendous talent when the pressure is on. I think this video sums up Peyton’s mentality in big games. He never overcame this attitude in high-pressure, uncomfortable situations and I don’t think he ever will.

3) If the Chiefs win one game against the Broncos they’ll have a very good chance at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I have very little confidence in Broncos being able to go on the road and beat anyone in the postseason. If the Broncos and Chiefs meet in the AFC title game then Alex Smith has a great shot at playing in the Super Bowl. I would favor both the Patriots and the Colts in a championship game in Kansas City if both teams were healthier. Right now these injury-riddled squads would struggle to stop Jamaal Charles and would have a tough time scoring points. The Ravens and/or the Bengals would prove to be the biggest challenges for the Chiefs, but I’d give the slight edge to the team that’s likely to be playing at home. Do I think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC? Hell no, but the stars are aligning in their favor so don't be surprised if they're playing in New York in February.

4) Lesley Frazier won’t be the Vikings head coach in 2014. Head coaches need a franchise QB if they are going to keep their jobs, just ask Herm Edwards (great coach who never had a healthy or talented enough franchise QB). Frazier gambled with Christian Ponder and lost big. Josh Freeman, though seemingly capable after his first two years in the league, is not in the right environment to succeed. I’ll cover more of what I think the Vikings should do in my ongoing Offseason Preview posts, but suffice it to say I think Frazier’s tenure has run it’s course in Minnesota.

5) Sam Bradford's time as done too. This is unfortunate because I think Bradford was capable of being a franchise QB, but the former St. Louis front office was too inept/unlucky to surround him with the necessary support. I think Bradford’s confidence is shot and the rest of the league's coaches and GMs (current and would-be) would probably rather draft a young QB than try to rehabilitate a broken one. Sam Bradford is Alex Smith with a better arm so maybe he'll have a shot with another team. Then again, if the Rams aren't able to get a potential franchise guy in this year's draft...

6) The Browns' front office is showing some worrisome signs of mismanagement. The Josh Gordon trade rumors have hung around too long without them putting an end to the speculation. I know they’ve said they’re not shopping their best receiver, but I doubt the topic is a complete media fabrication. If these rumors were completely baseless then the Browns should be furious that this story has now caused Gordon to lose some confidence in his tenure with the team. Here’s what the Browns should say if they are entertaining offers for Gordon (which they absolutely should be doing):

“We think Josh is an extremely talented player and we are proud of the way he has matured as a professional. We would love for Josh to continue to play for us as he is one of our best players. That being said, we are in the process of evaluating and building a strong roster that will compete for division and Super Bowl titles year in and year out. As such we have to consider serious offers. It would take a tremendous offer for us to consider trading a player of Josh’s caliber, one that would benefit both Josh and the Browns”.

Here’s what the Browns should say if they’re not entertaining offers for Gordon:

“We think Josh is an extremely talented player and we are proud of the way he has matured as a professional. We consider Josh an essential component of our rebuilding efforts to make this franchise a Super Bowl contender year in and year out. We have received trade offers for Josh’s services, but we have and will continue to turn down these offers. The Browns current and future success absolutely includes Josh Gordon”.

Simple as that, and no matter what they’re considering the Browns need to call Gordon into their office and personally explain their plans so that he doesn’t appear to not know what's going on. Teams can’t have a situation like this if they are truly focused and capable of building a solid franchise. Get it together Browns!

7) The Bears Super Bowl chances are probably done. Too many key defensive losses to a team that’s not yet mentally strong enough to handle this type of attrition. Cutler is too surly to balance out Marshall’s volatility and Forte is too soft-spoken to balance them out. Briggs is injured and probably didn’t develop the requisite leadership skills playing beside Urlacher all those years (pure speculation, but this might provide some insight). Tresmann’s Tony Dungy-like demeanor won’t be as effective because he's not been with the team or won enough games for his team to fully believe in his leadership (if they come through this adversity with a winning record he'll have them for the next three years). I’ll be watching rookie middle linebacker Johnathan Bostic because I think he’s talented enough to be the next great Chicago linebacker. What will be interesting to see is if Bostic can take control of the defense and get the veterans to buy into him as a leader. D.J. Williams’ career as a starter is likely over so this is Bostic’s defense if he wants it. What will he do with it?

8) RGIII is steadily finding his way back to his 2012 form. Adrian Peterson ruined it for Griffin. Few human beings are as physiologically remarkable as AD. RGIII needed more time physiologically and mentally and is essentially playing his 4^th regular season game (the first 3 were ostensibly preseason games). I’m still a selling my Washington stock because I don’t think RGIII will have a long career given his physical dimensions and style of play, but it’s good to see him and the team improving.

9) The Cardinals are a solid o-line away from being scary. Palmer doesn’t have the mobility or the arm talent to compensate for one of the worst lines in the league, but make no mistake this team is loaded at almost every other position. If Bruce Areans can't get a mobile QB in 2014 then he needs to build the o-line and cross his fingers at having a shot at Jameis Winston in 2015.

10) Speaking of Jameis Winston I think he’s as talented a QB as I’ve ever seen in college football. He has a shot at being as good as Luck was in college, maybe better. If that doesn't make the hairs of excitement on the back of your neck stand up then you must be dead. What makes Winston so good is his combination of football smarts, feet, size, and arm talent. They’re all at the top of the charts and he’s just a red-shirt freshman. The most important thing to keep an eye on from now until he declares for the draft his how he handles the spotlight. If he stays mature and out of trouble then I think come 2015 there are only a handful of teams that wouldn’t take Winston if they had the opportunity: New Orleans, San Fran (I think Winston is as good as Kaep now), Seattle, Baltimore, the Giants, Washington (if they came out the same year Winston over RGIII 100 out of 100 times), Dallas, Atlanta, Indy (Luck is the only QB I would take over Winston as a college prospect). Detroit and Pittsburg probably wouldn’t pull the trigger if they had the number one pick, but they’d think about it. If any of these 11 teams has a new coach and/or GM come 2015 then all bets are off. If you’re a new coach or GM and you have a shot at Jameis Winston and he’s proven to be mature and a good leader then you take him no matter what QB you inherit from the previous regime. Nick Saban heavily recruited Winston so if he does come back to the NFL in 2015...I can’t wait to see this young man develop and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that FSU and Bama stay undefeated. What a game that will be!

Offseason Preview: NFC SOUTH

Let's keep my way too early to speculate offseason team guide going with the NFC South.

Panthers: Gut the coaching staff and front office. Trading Cam for draft picks is a possibility, but there's no one in this upcoming draft that's a better physical prospect than Newton so I would keep him and try to rebuild a team around him. Presumably a new coaching staff would them gut the offense. Stewart needs to go and this team needs to get better on the o-line and on the outside. The defense is solid so now need to tinker their. The most important thing for the Panthers is to get the right coach for Cam. Someone authoritative, but not too out of touch with young pop-culture. Saban is NOT the guy this job. Carolina needs someone more like David Shaw from Stanford. I don't think he leaves, but that's who they should be shooting for.

Bucs: Schiano probably has another year, but I'd be more proactive and move on. It appears relatively clear that he's losing the players and this roster is too young and talented to wallow for another year. It all comes down to the QB so either Glennon needs to dramatically improve or the Bucs need to get their hands on a dynamic QB who's more emotionally compatible with the coaching staff. This team could be next year's Chiefs if they get their leadership in order.

Falcons: As I said in several earlier posts, the Falcons don't have an effective defense, which is why they keep losing games they should win. With the way things are going in ATL the Falcons might just be in a position to draft South Carolina star Jadeveon Clowney. That would be solid pick, but the falcons also need a more stout d-line so that Sean Witherspoon (when healthy) can make plays. On offense the Falcons have to improve their run blocking so that they can take some pressure off their defense. This team must make substantive moves to sure up the weakness they've avoided addressing for years. If they do them they'll finally be a legitimate contender.

Saints: They won't have to do a lot this offseason. This team has great leadership, a nice mix of young and veteran talent, and a QB that will still be at the top of his game in three years. Colston isn't getting any younger and I'd be sure I'd have a dependable receiver to compliment and eventually replace him sooner rather than later. Maybe Nick Toon and Kenny Stills are those guys, but I have my doubts they can fill Colston's role.

Offseason Preview: NFC EAST

I know it's way too early for this but I can't help myself. In my fantasies of being an NFL GM I'm already thinking earnestly about what my imaginary team will need to do for this coming offseason. Here are some general thoughts on what each team should probably focus on for the upcoming season starting with the NFC East. I'll be back throughout the season with each division.

Cowboys: Their biggest priority should be improving the lines. They're not going to fire the coaching staff because they're probably going win the division going away. Romo needs more time to throw and the defense needs to get younger on the front. Ultimately I don't think they gain enough ground on the better teams in the conference and Jerry Jones continues to delude himself to the detriment of winning a championship.

Washington: First they need to change their team name. Second, they need to improve the offensive line and find legit skill position talent. Garcon and Morris are B players not As and that's what Washington needs. Lastly, RGIII needs to have as quiet an offseason as Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck.

Giants: Defense, defense, and more defense. It needs to be overhauled and the offensive line needs to get better. The coaching staff and front office are here to stay and that's good. This team knows who they are and how they need to win. Their defense has eroded and their offensive line is bad. They can get those things fixed pretty quickly and probably will come this offseason.

Eagles: This team is all about finding the right QB. Vick is banged up again and though Foles played well I don't imagine he's they guy Chip Kelly ultimately envisions running his team. The defense should improve after what looks to be a tough year. The eagles also need more dynamic receivers. A healthy Jeremy Maclin should be a shot in the arm, but the Eagles don't have a durable receiving threat on the roster and that's a problem.

Week 5 Review: Ten Take Aways

Here's a quick list of observations from Week 5.

1) Matt Schaub is on the precipice of ending his career. I don't envy trying to manage this situation as a coach. It's hard to watch and I'm not sure how one would navigate this situation. The Texans probably can't win a championship with Schaub, but where do you go from here? Andre Johnson is mostly spent and Foster has only two or three more years of top notch play. Really tough situation in Houston.

2) The 49ers are going to be what we expected at the beginning of the season by the end of the season. Don't let the score in the Texans game fool you, this team is limited right now. What's really turned things around is the fact that Harbaugh is calling more running plays. Kaepernick doesn't have the weapons to develop his passing skills and that's okay. The 49ers need to focus on getting healthy, running the ball well, and playing good defense. They'll be in the mix at the end of the season.

3) Tony Romo is Brett Favre. The Cowboys' lack of late game success is more a product of a team that doesn't function well in crisis. Romo is exceptional IF he has a supporting cast that is more disciplined than he is. Romo makes those type of plays late in games because he knows he has to overcome a team that hasn't supported him in the past. Romo is not Brees, Brady, Rodgers, or Manning. He's just not that good, but he is better than almost every other QB. Romo is the scapegoat that prevents fans from demanding the management changes that will fix the real issue.

4) Luck and Wilson should be an entertaining battle for years to come. What a fantastic game! The Colts are only going to get better and if the Seahawks manage their roster well in the coming years these two teams should provide some excitement when they face off.

5) Josh Freeman is not the answer in Minnesota. He's certainly better than Ponder and has a higher ceiling than Cassel, but I doubt if he becomes their franchise QB. Coaches rarely keep their job with QBs they didn't draft (the most recent exception is Payton and Brees). Lesley Frazier is probably not going to keep his job for more than two years and when that happens the team will draft another QB. Freeman has shown that he's got some work to do on his soft skills as well as his quarterbacking skills. Some of that is coaching, but the best in the league don't precipitate situations like what happened in Tampa. Either a QB is too good an too well liked to get booted or he's not ready for the situation, no matter how problematic the head coaches methods are.

6) New Orleans is the most capable challenger to Seattle. If it comes down to those two teams in the NFC championship game the winner will likely be the home team. The scariest thing about the Saints is that they're playing very good defense. That offense is problematic enough without a defense that can hold opponents to less than 25. Watch out for the Saints. The last time they went 5-0 they won it all. What a rematch that would be with Peyton!

7) The Broncos may not lose a game to an AFC team. Make no mistake, if starting middle linebacker Wesley Woodyard is out for an extended period of time then the Broncos are not nearly as formidable on defense, but does that really matter? Manning's offense can't be stopped and running back Knowshon Moreno is looking like the first round pick we thought he'd be. This team is the biggest offensive juggernaut since Brady's 18-1 team.

8) The Chiefs aren't as good as their record, but that may not matter. Right now there are only three games on the Chiefs' schedule where they won't be favored, two against Denver and one against the Colts. They are a legitimate threat to get home field throughout the playoffs because their opponents are collectively that poor. The only quality team they've faced so far has been the Cowboys and that game was very close. The Chiefs can be beat, but not by teams that don't play smart and certainly not by teams that are significantly less talented. The Chiefs are for real because their path to the playoffs is one of the easiest.

9) Ryan Tannehill is a franchise QB. There. I said it. The third and long throw late in the game to put his team in position to win convinced me. His supporting cast is not doing him any favors and the front office should be face palming themselves for massively overpaying for Wallace. I hope the Dolphins' brass gets their act together because by now it should be clear to them that they are hindering the development of their franchise guy. I wasn't smart enough to see what they saw in Tannehill, though it was a good pick. The front office needs to get out of its own way and make sure their franchise guy has a clearer (and cheaper) path to success.

10) Speaking of screwing things up, Cam Newton and this coaching staff/front office need a divorce. I go back and forth on who's more to blame, but assigning blame matters less right now than fixing the issue. Cam has been woefully immature, but this coaching staff and front office have been woefully inept at putting together a good team. Newton is ultra talented, but he needs better guidance to reach his potential. How the Panthers handle the offseason will depend on who they bring in to replace Rivera and his staff. If they keep Cam then they'd better get serious leadership and talent to run the team. If they get rid of Cam they should be able to get some serious compensation. I would clean house and keep Cam only if I could find the right coach to work with him. What's Warren Moon's email?

Enjoy the game tonight. Atlanta should win, but I think the game is close for at least the first half. Geno Smith may not be a franchise guy, but he certainly plays like he wants to be. If the Falcons can't run the ball or pressure Geno then this is going to be a close game.