Week 8: Ten Takeaways

1) I underestimated the Colts. Their performance against the Broncos was remarkable. That being said their probability of getting to the Super Bowl has dropped significantly with the loss of Reggie Wayne. A healthy Colts team would be my favorite to win the AFC. They’d likely play Manning in Denver and with the combination of Peyton’s big game shrinkage and the weather I’d give the edge to the more physical team whose QB has better feet. I’ve said that this division belongs to the Colts once Manning and Brady retire. They may have it locked down already.

2) Peyton Manning is limited above the shoulders. That feels tremendously odd to write, but after his latest effort in a big game I can no longer convince myself that he’s in the discussion for the GOAT. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton is  one of the smartest and most capable QBs to ever play the game, but he is clearly not good at one thing that all the other superior QBs are good at, playing their best in big games. I think Peyton is like this because he’s so regimented in how he prepares and how he plays. He can make some of the best in game adjustments that have ever been made, but Peyton stumbles to find that calm focus so he can tap into his tremendous talent when the pressure is on. I think this video sums up Peyton’s mentality in big games. He never overcame this attitude in high-pressure, uncomfortable situations and I don’t think he ever will.

3) If the Chiefs win one game against the Broncos they’ll have a very good chance at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I have very little confidence in Broncos being able to go on the road and beat anyone in the postseason. If the Broncos and Chiefs meet in the AFC title game then Alex Smith has a great shot at playing in the Super Bowl. I would favor both the Patriots and the Colts in a championship game in Kansas City if both teams were healthier. Right now these injury-riddled squads would struggle to stop Jamaal Charles and would have a tough time scoring points. The Ravens and/or the Bengals would prove to be the biggest challenges for the Chiefs, but I’d give the slight edge to the team that’s likely to be playing at home. Do I think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC? Hell no, but the stars are aligning in their favor so don't be surprised if they're playing in New York in February.

4) Lesley Frazier won’t be the Vikings head coach in 2014. Head coaches need a franchise QB if they are going to keep their jobs, just ask Herm Edwards (great coach who never had a healthy or talented enough franchise QB). Frazier gambled with Christian Ponder and lost big. Josh Freeman, though seemingly capable after his first two years in the league, is not in the right environment to succeed. I’ll cover more of what I think the Vikings should do in my ongoing Offseason Preview posts, but suffice it to say I think Frazier’s tenure has run it’s course in Minnesota.

5) Sam Bradford's time as done too. This is unfortunate because I think Bradford was capable of being a franchise QB, but the former St. Louis front office was too inept/unlucky to surround him with the necessary support. I think Bradford’s confidence is shot and the rest of the league's coaches and GMs (current and would-be) would probably rather draft a young QB than try to rehabilitate a broken one. Sam Bradford is Alex Smith with a better arm so maybe he'll have a shot with another team. Then again, if the Rams aren't able to get a potential franchise guy in this year's draft...

6) The Browns' front office is showing some worrisome signs of mismanagement. The Josh Gordon trade rumors have hung around too long without them putting an end to the speculation. I know they’ve said they’re not shopping their best receiver, but I doubt the topic is a complete media fabrication. If these rumors were completely baseless then the Browns should be furious that this story has now caused Gordon to lose some confidence in his tenure with the team. Here’s what the Browns should say if they are entertaining offers for Gordon (which they absolutely should be doing):

“We think Josh is an extremely talented player and we are proud of the way he has matured as a professional. We would love for Josh to continue to play for us as he is one of our best players. That being said, we are in the process of evaluating and building a strong roster that will compete for division and Super Bowl titles year in and year out. As such we have to consider serious offers. It would take a tremendous offer for us to consider trading a player of Josh’s caliber, one that would benefit both Josh and the Browns”.

Here’s what the Browns should say if they’re not entertaining offers for Gordon:

“We think Josh is an extremely talented player and we are proud of the way he has matured as a professional. We consider Josh an essential component of our rebuilding efforts to make this franchise a Super Bowl contender year in and year out. We have received trade offers for Josh’s services, but we have and will continue to turn down these offers. The Browns current and future success absolutely includes Josh Gordon”.

Simple as that, and no matter what they’re considering the Browns need to call Gordon into their office and personally explain their plans so that he doesn’t appear to not know what's going on. Teams can’t have a situation like this if they are truly focused and capable of building a solid franchise. Get it together Browns!

7) The Bears Super Bowl chances are probably done. Too many key defensive losses to a team that’s not yet mentally strong enough to handle this type of attrition. Cutler is too surly to balance out Marshall’s volatility and Forte is too soft-spoken to balance them out. Briggs is injured and probably didn’t develop the requisite leadership skills playing beside Urlacher all those years (pure speculation, but this might provide some insight). Tresmann’s Tony Dungy-like demeanor won’t be as effective because he's not been with the team or won enough games for his team to fully believe in his leadership (if they come through this adversity with a winning record he'll have them for the next three years). I’ll be watching rookie middle linebacker Johnathan Bostic because I think he’s talented enough to be the next great Chicago linebacker. What will be interesting to see is if Bostic can take control of the defense and get the veterans to buy into him as a leader. D.J. Williams’ career as a starter is likely over so this is Bostic’s defense if he wants it. What will he do with it?

8) RGIII is steadily finding his way back to his 2012 form. Adrian Peterson ruined it for Griffin. Few human beings are as physiologically remarkable as AD. RGIII needed more time physiologically and mentally and is essentially playing his 4^th regular season game (the first 3 were ostensibly preseason games). I’m still a selling my Washington stock because I don’t think RGIII will have a long career given his physical dimensions and style of play, but it’s good to see him and the team improving.

9) The Cardinals are a solid o-line away from being scary. Palmer doesn’t have the mobility or the arm talent to compensate for one of the worst lines in the league, but make no mistake this team is loaded at almost every other position. If Bruce Areans can't get a mobile QB in 2014 then he needs to build the o-line and cross his fingers at having a shot at Jameis Winston in 2015.

10) Speaking of Jameis Winston I think he’s as talented a QB as I’ve ever seen in college football. He has a shot at being as good as Luck was in college, maybe better. If that doesn't make the hairs of excitement on the back of your neck stand up then you must be dead. What makes Winston so good is his combination of football smarts, feet, size, and arm talent. They’re all at the top of the charts and he’s just a red-shirt freshman. The most important thing to keep an eye on from now until he declares for the draft his how he handles the spotlight. If he stays mature and out of trouble then I think come 2015 there are only a handful of teams that wouldn’t take Winston if they had the opportunity: New Orleans, San Fran (I think Winston is as good as Kaep now), Seattle, Baltimore, the Giants, Washington (if they came out the same year Winston over RGIII 100 out of 100 times), Dallas, Atlanta, Indy (Luck is the only QB I would take over Winston as a college prospect). Detroit and Pittsburg probably wouldn’t pull the trigger if they had the number one pick, but they’d think about it. If any of these 11 teams has a new coach and/or GM come 2015 then all bets are off. If you’re a new coach or GM and you have a shot at Jameis Winston and he’s proven to be mature and a good leader then you take him no matter what QB you inherit from the previous regime. Nick Saban heavily recruited Winston so if he does come back to the NFL in 2015...I can’t wait to see this young man develop and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that FSU and Bama stay undefeated. What a game that will be!