This is always a bittersweet time in the NFL season as the league bifurcates into the good and the bad. Most of the league will be sitting at home watching the supposed better teams play for a championship. The quality of play in the playoffs is usually better, but this time also signals the impending end of another NFL season. Endings, no matter how exciting or enjoyable, are always a bit sad. On the other hand, the end of the regular season ushers in the season of the GM, a time of year where personnel decisions and speculation increase ten-fold as teams build for the future. I love the GM season and will talk about it a lot over the next half year. For now though, let's talk about the postseason, the teams, and how I like to make it to MetLife Stadium in February.
Playoff Seeding
The NFL has to fix this because the system of seeding is stupid. As it stands now any team that wins its division, regardless of their regular season record, hosts a playoff game. In the AFC this format is not a problem because the records of all playoff teams align with their seeds. In the NFC however the seeding system has created two unearned advantages for the home teams. The 49ers finished the season 12-4, tied for second best record in the NFL, one game behind the 13-3 Seahawks, but will have to go on the road to play the 8-7-1 Packers. Let me say this another way. The 49ers won eight more games than they lost but will have to travel to play a team that won only one more game than they lost. Like the 49ers, the Saints finished one game behind their division rival and reigning champ, but will have to go on the road to play a team with a worse record than them.
Here's the solution. If a team wins their division then they should be guaranteed a playoff spot, that's it. Where a team is seeded once it qualifies for the playoffs should be determined by record alone. In case of teams that have qualified for the playoffs having the same record the tiebreaker should go to any team that is a division champ (regardless of regular season head-to-head outcome with other tied team), and then be decided by head-to-head result if neither team is a division champion. As I said before, the AFC got it right because two out of the three wild card teams with 11-5 records that are hosting playoff games are division champions. The wildcard playoff picture in the NFC should have the 49ers and Saints hosting playoff games, because their records are better than the Packers and Eagles. Come on NFL, get it right for 2014.
Now to step down from my soapbox and talk games. Let's run them down starting with the early Saturday game.
Chiefs @ Colts
Winner: Colts
I'm not tremendously confident with this pick. Come to think of it I don't have a ton of confidence in any of my picks for this round. That's what makes the playoffs great and this year particularly interesting. This game will hinge on how well the Colts stop Jamaal Charles. In their last meeting Charles got loose, but only had 18 touches. Alex Smith was not very effective in this game and Chiefs' defense didn't have an answer for Luck's efficiency. Andrew Luck is the third best QB in the AFC playoffs and is never out of a game. He's got playoff experience and an offense that's well balanced. The overall talent advantage belongs to the Chiefs, but their QB is not the type to make dynamic plays in key spots. The Colts have to run the ball effectively to control this game and keep the home field advantage. If Jamaal Charles gets 20-25 touches the Chiefs will be hard to beat. I like the Colts in a close game, but won't surprised if the Chiefs win by 10+.
Saints @ Eagles
Winner: Saints
The Saints don't play well on the road, but this team is battle tested in the post season. They're angry about their road reputation and they have the most accurate and one of the most prolific QBs to ever play the game. The Eagles are young, innovative, confident, but inconsistent at times though they've only lost 1 out of the last 8 games. A lot of how this game will go depends on what the weather is like this Saturday. If there is any kind of precipitation then the Saints are in trouble. If it's mild then things might be more even. I typically don't like first time playoff coaches and QBs to win, but Chip Kelly might be that good of a coach. Like the early Saturday game this one hinges on a star running back. If Shady McCoy gets loose and touches the ball north of 25 times the Saints will have a tough time keeping up. I think this game is close early on and stays close because both coaches make good half-time adjustments. Saints find a way to win, but only if the weather is good.
Chargers @ Bengals
Winner: Bengals
The Chargers are a hard team to figure out. They win games they should lose and lose games they should win. The Bengals are talented, but limited at QB. This game could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers won, but when in doubt I go with the home team with a better defense, a strong running game, and more dynamic offensive weapons. Philip Rivers is the wild card in this matchup. If he limits the turnovers and gains confidence early then I think the Bengals are done. I like the Chargers' psychology better than the Bengals. The former are tough and never give up. The later team is immature at times, and not particularly resilient in crisis. Keep your eye on Rivers in this matchup. The more comfortable he is the worse it will be for the home team.
49ers @ Packers
Winner: 49ers
I hate that this game is in Lambo, but I've talked enough about why. The Packers have Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers back and after a huge win to make the playoffs are very confident. The Pack are itching to get their revenge on the team that's had their number over the last two years and have an excellent shot at knocking them off. The 49ers are simply a better team than the Packers however. Their team, the 9ers, is built for tough, cold weather games and they have a defense that intimidates. Colin Kaepernick is still a long ways away from being close to Aaron Rodgers. We've seen flashes, but Kaep is still a one-read QB that struggles with consistent mechanics and poise in the pocket. The Packers are going to have to get creative on defense in order to make Kaepernick uncomfortable and without Clay Mathews that's going to be tough. The 49ers need to play to their strength in this game and run the ball A LOT, work off of play action, milk the clock, and get pressure on Rodgers with their front 4. The Packers can run the ball effectively so watch to see if Eddie Lacy gets going. If this turns into a scoring slug fest then I don't like the 49ers' chances because Kaepernick will struggle to make the decisions and throws needed to win the game. San Fran may be a fair weather team, but they play like they're from Anchorage. This is not the game for Harbaugh to get too creative, but don't be surprised if the largely absent from the regular season read-option makes a strong playoff cameo. Niners by 10 after a close first half.
If my predictions are correct then this is what the divisional match ups would be:
Colts @ Broncos: Broncos get the slight edge, but Luck is built for the postseason while Peyton is built to break regular season records.
Bengals @ Pats: Pats win because the Bengals can't overcome this QB mismatch or a well rested opponent.
Saints @ Seahawks: Saints get their asses kicked once again by a team that's simply more physical and more talented than they are.
49ers @ Panthers: Best game of the weekend and really hard to call. The Niners defense figures out a way to neutralize Cam's weapons and continue to run the ball well and pull out a close one.
This is only the beginning folks. Stay tuned for my continued thoughts on the playoffs and the GM season. Enjoy the games!
Playoff Seeding
The NFL has to fix this because the system of seeding is stupid. As it stands now any team that wins its division, regardless of their regular season record, hosts a playoff game. In the AFC this format is not a problem because the records of all playoff teams align with their seeds. In the NFC however the seeding system has created two unearned advantages for the home teams. The 49ers finished the season 12-4, tied for second best record in the NFL, one game behind the 13-3 Seahawks, but will have to go on the road to play the 8-7-1 Packers. Let me say this another way. The 49ers won eight more games than they lost but will have to travel to play a team that won only one more game than they lost. Like the 49ers, the Saints finished one game behind their division rival and reigning champ, but will have to go on the road to play a team with a worse record than them.
Here's the solution. If a team wins their division then they should be guaranteed a playoff spot, that's it. Where a team is seeded once it qualifies for the playoffs should be determined by record alone. In case of teams that have qualified for the playoffs having the same record the tiebreaker should go to any team that is a division champ (regardless of regular season head-to-head outcome with other tied team), and then be decided by head-to-head result if neither team is a division champion. As I said before, the AFC got it right because two out of the three wild card teams with 11-5 records that are hosting playoff games are division champions. The wildcard playoff picture in the NFC should have the 49ers and Saints hosting playoff games, because their records are better than the Packers and Eagles. Come on NFL, get it right for 2014.
Now to step down from my soapbox and talk games. Let's run them down starting with the early Saturday game.
Chiefs @ Colts
Winner: Colts
I'm not tremendously confident with this pick. Come to think of it I don't have a ton of confidence in any of my picks for this round. That's what makes the playoffs great and this year particularly interesting. This game will hinge on how well the Colts stop Jamaal Charles. In their last meeting Charles got loose, but only had 18 touches. Alex Smith was not very effective in this game and Chiefs' defense didn't have an answer for Luck's efficiency. Andrew Luck is the third best QB in the AFC playoffs and is never out of a game. He's got playoff experience and an offense that's well balanced. The overall talent advantage belongs to the Chiefs, but their QB is not the type to make dynamic plays in key spots. The Colts have to run the ball effectively to control this game and keep the home field advantage. If Jamaal Charles gets 20-25 touches the Chiefs will be hard to beat. I like the Colts in a close game, but won't surprised if the Chiefs win by 10+.
Saints @ Eagles
Winner: Saints
The Saints don't play well on the road, but this team is battle tested in the post season. They're angry about their road reputation and they have the most accurate and one of the most prolific QBs to ever play the game. The Eagles are young, innovative, confident, but inconsistent at times though they've only lost 1 out of the last 8 games. A lot of how this game will go depends on what the weather is like this Saturday. If there is any kind of precipitation then the Saints are in trouble. If it's mild then things might be more even. I typically don't like first time playoff coaches and QBs to win, but Chip Kelly might be that good of a coach. Like the early Saturday game this one hinges on a star running back. If Shady McCoy gets loose and touches the ball north of 25 times the Saints will have a tough time keeping up. I think this game is close early on and stays close because both coaches make good half-time adjustments. Saints find a way to win, but only if the weather is good.
Chargers @ Bengals
Winner: Bengals
The Chargers are a hard team to figure out. They win games they should lose and lose games they should win. The Bengals are talented, but limited at QB. This game could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers won, but when in doubt I go with the home team with a better defense, a strong running game, and more dynamic offensive weapons. Philip Rivers is the wild card in this matchup. If he limits the turnovers and gains confidence early then I think the Bengals are done. I like the Chargers' psychology better than the Bengals. The former are tough and never give up. The later team is immature at times, and not particularly resilient in crisis. Keep your eye on Rivers in this matchup. The more comfortable he is the worse it will be for the home team.
49ers @ Packers
Winner: 49ers
I hate that this game is in Lambo, but I've talked enough about why. The Packers have Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers back and after a huge win to make the playoffs are very confident. The Pack are itching to get their revenge on the team that's had their number over the last two years and have an excellent shot at knocking them off. The 49ers are simply a better team than the Packers however. Their team, the 9ers, is built for tough, cold weather games and they have a defense that intimidates. Colin Kaepernick is still a long ways away from being close to Aaron Rodgers. We've seen flashes, but Kaep is still a one-read QB that struggles with consistent mechanics and poise in the pocket. The Packers are going to have to get creative on defense in order to make Kaepernick uncomfortable and without Clay Mathews that's going to be tough. The 49ers need to play to their strength in this game and run the ball A LOT, work off of play action, milk the clock, and get pressure on Rodgers with their front 4. The Packers can run the ball effectively so watch to see if Eddie Lacy gets going. If this turns into a scoring slug fest then I don't like the 49ers' chances because Kaepernick will struggle to make the decisions and throws needed to win the game. San Fran may be a fair weather team, but they play like they're from Anchorage. This is not the game for Harbaugh to get too creative, but don't be surprised if the largely absent from the regular season read-option makes a strong playoff cameo. Niners by 10 after a close first half.
If my predictions are correct then this is what the divisional match ups would be:
Colts @ Broncos: Broncos get the slight edge, but Luck is built for the postseason while Peyton is built to break regular season records.
Bengals @ Pats: Pats win because the Bengals can't overcome this QB mismatch or a well rested opponent.
Saints @ Seahawks: Saints get their asses kicked once again by a team that's simply more physical and more talented than they are.
49ers @ Panthers: Best game of the weekend and really hard to call. The Niners defense figures out a way to neutralize Cam's weapons and continue to run the ball well and pull out a close one.
This is only the beginning folks. Stay tuned for my continued thoughts on the playoffs and the GM season. Enjoy the games!
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