It's finally here! The 2013 NFL season. After weeks of speculation it's time for, well, more speculation. Here are my thoughts on what's to come in the regular season, division by division. Let's start with the best one in the game, the NFC West.
NFC WEST
Winner: coin flip between 49ers and Seahawks. Both teams are loaded, will hit you, and have dynamic QBs. It may come down to their two games, but they'll likely split those. I'll give the nod to the defending champs, but just barely.
49ers: Kaepernick will struggle a bit because he's still so young in terms of starts. I'm keeping an eye on the health of Patrick Willis and Frank Gore. The receiving corps would worry me a lot more if they hadn't acquired Boldin, they'll do enough to keep defenses honest. Best coach in the division and maybe the league and the bad taste of a Super Bowl loss. They're motivated.
Seahawks: Russel Wilson is the best QB in this division and this is arguably the second best roster in the division. Historically Pete Carroll has struggled with the finer details of game prep and management and I wonder if his exuberance and new-aged approach to running a team can overcome his shortcomings. Too much talking from Richard Sherman for him to live up to his own hype and I think he gets a bit exposed this year. In the end this team goes as Wilson goes. They'll win a lot of games and be impossible to beat at home.
Rams: The biggest question here is whether or not Sam Bradford has enough confidence to resurrect his career. Time is running out to build a supporting cast that Bradford can win with and that's a lot of pressure for a QB that's suffered from an incompetent front office. This defense is dynamic and much improved, but if they can't stop the 9ers or Seahawks' rushing attack they've got no shot. I like this team and think they're moving in the right direction, but if Bradford struggles this year it'll be another few years before they can find a replacement.
Cardinals: The Cards are the greatest unknown in this division. If the o-line can block well enough then they could challenge for a wildcard slot. It's that simple. The defense is very good, the receivers are smart and big, and the coach is solid. How they execute plays on offense will dictate their success.
AFC WEST
Winner: Broncos. You can't stop this offense and they have the second best QB in the league. Done and done.
Broncos: We know they can score points and they'll make the playoffs, but can they make the plays they need to advance in the postseason? Pencil in 11 wins and maybe a trip to New York in February.
Chiefs: I'm most curious about this team because their roster and coach are good enough to make a deep playoff run. The question remains how will Alex Smith be asked to play? Will he be asked to throw the ball down field? If not I think this team's ceiling is the same as it was for the 49ers when Smith was their QB. I wouldn't be surprised if they challenged for the division, but I think they're limited in the long-term primarily because Smith doesn't make dynamic throws on a regular basis.
Chargers: This has got to be one of the most mismanaged teams in NFL history. They've simply had a mass exodus of talent that hasn't been replaced. The Manning family knew what they were doing when refused to let Eli play in San Diego. This team needs a complete face lift, but unfortunately they still have a QB that's just talented and young enough to play out his 2-3 years of top productivity. They're good for 6 or so wins this year and a lot of frustration. Wouldn't want to be a rookie on this team.
Raiders: Terrell Pryor will be the starting QB. Things are bad in Oakland. Pryor is dynamic and has hopefully learned from sitting on the bench, but he still doesn't appear to have mastered the mental nuances of the game. It's going to be a long season for the team on the east side of the bay. Keep an eye on the players drafted by the new GM because that will tell you if he keeps his job. Raiders are mostly unwatchable this year.
NFC NORTH
Winner: Packers. Best run organization with the best QB and now the possibility of a workable running game.
Packers: If the Packers can run the ball effectively it's all over. Their defense isn't dominant, but their secondary makes plays and you always have to account for number 52. Greg Jennings wasn't a big loss and Randall Cobb looks like he's poised for a monster season. Packers win this division going away.
Bears: Tresman is a dynamic football mind, but this team has too much rebuilding to do on defense and their QB makes too many costly throws to keep his team in games. The offense will be better, but their defense takes a step back and the vets on this team get frustrated with a coaching change (firing Lovie Smith) they didn't really like. Oh, and the o-line is still struggles to keep Cutler upright.
Lions: Penalties and lack of discipline cost this team at least two games this year. Their end of the year stats on offense will confound you much like the Norv Turner led Chargers did. Swartz gets the boot and if the ownership can get the right coach this team will challenge for the division in 2014. Nick Saban will pick up the phone come February because this team has everything except an adult as a head coach.
Vikings: This is year the Vikings finally come to terms with the mistake of drafting Christian Ponder number 8 overall. They probably don't make the playoffs, but they win more games than you might think because AD is just that good.
AFC NORTH
Winner: Ravens. It's close between them and the Bengals.
Ravens: Ozzie Newsome is smarter than you, trust that he knows what he's doing in retooling this roster. Their biggest weakness is the receiving corps, which I think limits their bid for a repeat, but they are one of the most well coached and well run teams in the league. They'll be just fine.
Bengals: Andy Dalton is the limiting factor here. This team is loaded, but they're limited at the most crucial position, the position that wins championships in today's NFL. Dalton is easily the third best QB in this division and the other two have Super Bowl rings. I'm just not confident Dalton can win enough games against the likes of Flacco, Big Ben, Brady, Luck, and Manning let alone the QB/team they would face in New York. This organization has made vast improvements, but ultimately they've got the wrong QB to win it all.
Steelers: Great QB, great coach, limited playmakers on offense and an aging D. The demise of the Steelers is vastly over-stated, but they'll struggle again this year. Make no mistake though, they are one good draft away from contending for a championship again. Waiter, you still haven't brought me my o-lineman!
Browns: The sooner this team can part ways with Brandon Weeden the better off they'll be. Richardson is the second or third best back in this conference and Josh Gordon is a playmaker (and knucklehead). The defensive leadership is aging and they made a huge blunder overpaying for Kruger and drafting Mingo instead of Jarvis Jones, but there's hope in Cleveland. Teddy Bridgewater would be one hell of a shot in the arm come May wouldn't he?
NFC EAST
Winner: Giants. Best run organization coming off of a disappointing season. They'll be ready.
Giants: It's pretty cut and dry with this team. If the defensive line can put just a little more consistent pressure on opposing QBs and can stop the run a little more effectively then this team will be just fine. They won't run off a 4 game winning streak during the back half of the season, but you'll not want to play them come playoff time if they're clicking.
Cowboys: Dez Bryant looked unstoppable this preseason and if Miles Austin can stay healthy this team will be a nightmare. Romo makes plays, but he also makes anti-plays a la Brett Favre. In the end this team lacks the "it" in its head coach and GM to win it all.
Washington: RGIII either doesn't stay healthy for 16 games or does and has trouble making multiple reads without taking off an running. This team played over their skis in 2012 and don't really have the supporting cast to repeat that effort. Morris doesn't catch enough balls to adjust to the eight man, hyper-blitz fronts I'm expecting teams to throw at Washington. None of Washington's receivers really scare you and the defense is talented, but aging. Then again, RGIII might be the second coming of Jeebus.
Eagles: Michael Vick is not nearly as good as people think (only played 16 games once in his career and is a turn-over machine) and the backup is likely a career backup. The franchise QB for this team isn't on the roster and no manner of Chip Kelly genius is going to change the fact that this team lacks offensive playmakers outside of McCoy and the fact that their defense can't stop anybody. This team is going to be really interesting, but not so much until 2014.
AFC EAST
Winner: Patriots as soon as it's mathematically possible for them to have it locked up.
Patriots: Last time I checked the best QB in this conference is still playing in New England. He's never needed good receivers to win a championship and this young defense is getting better by the week. This is still the Pats division for as long as Brady is the QB and Belichick is the coach.
Dolphins: I'm starting to see in Tannehill what others appear to be seeing, a potentially dynamic QB that's slowly adjusting to the NFL. His supporting cast on offense is poor and the front office made one of the biggest draft mistakes in 2013 by taking Jordan with the number 3 pick. Tannelhill might end up being a victim of a poorly run franchise and never get the support or vision he needs from the front office to be successful.
Bills: Don't be surprised if Manuel leads them to some surprise wins. He's not Cam Newton from a talent perspective, but he probably better than Vince Young. If Spiller can stay health and the defensive overhaul results in fewer big plays then this team will make a splash. Ultimately they get exposed against the better teams in the conference, but they'll learn a lot from this year.
Jets: The only other unwatchable team in the NFL. Rex Ryan has coached himself out of any future head coaching positions and ultimately is better for it. Idzik will likely have a shot at drafting a real franchise QB in May and will be able to truly rebuild, so long as he doesn't take Manziel. This team is absurdly terrible on offense. I'll be surprised if they win more than 4 games.
NFC SOUTH
Winners: Falcons because their defense is just a tad bit better than the Saints'.
Falcons: This is the year the Falcons have to win a championship because after 2013 their deficiencies on defense will be too great to ignore and correct without massive turnover in personnel. I don't think they get there because they simply can't make enough plays on defense to stop either top team in the NFC West.
Saints: The Payton and Brees combo puts the fear of almighty back into opposing defenses, but the Saints' defense is something opposing offenses look forward to. Rob Ryan tries to do too much with his complex system and again doesn't have the personnel to execute his vision. The Saints will score 35+, but will give up 40+.
Panthers: If Cam can act like an adult on a consistent basis then this team can begin to realize it's potential. Beason, Kuchley, and Davis might be the most talented LB trio in the league if the two vets on the outside can stay healthy. Steve Smith is still a playmaker and Williams can be an effective runner. It's all on Cam, which makes me nervous.
Bucs: Toughest team in the division to figure out. Probably the most talented on both sides of the ball, but oddly limited at QB. I can't tell if Freeman just isn't a franchise QB or if he's still not reached his potential. This could be the best team in the division in 2014 if the later is true.
AFC SOUTH
Winner: Colts. Surprised?
Colts: Easily the third best QB in the conference on the third or forth best run organization in the conference, with one of the youngest and most dynamic rosters. This team doesn't beat itself and Luck just figures it out quicker than your team's defense can figure him out. A sleeping juggernaut begins to awaken in 2013.
Texans: Too overhyped, limited at QB, shrink in big games, and a limited coaching staff. They could win the division if Luck isn't as good as I think he's going to be this year and they've have made some really good picks in this year's draft. Easily the most talented roster in the division, but I'm just not sold on the Texans' coaching staff and QB. They don't do the little things well and rely too much on being more physically talented than their opponents. There's nothing cleaver, particularly creative, or smart about the way the Texans want to beat you and so it's that much easier to take advantage of the weakness they make obvious by being vanilla. They'd run away with the division if Luck weren't in it, but the only person on the Texans who's smarter than the second year prodigy is the oft injured Ed Reed, and that includes the coaching staff.
Titans: They are quietly building a team that their future franchise QB draft pick can step into and succeed. Locker is not talented enough to overcome the mismanagement of this roster over the years and unfortunately his time is all but run out. The o-line is better, CJ2K will likely be also, but they lack defensive playmakers and a QB that can make plays. The Titans are almost unwatchable this season.
Jags: Another almost an unwatchable team except for the fact that MJD is back and hopefully back to his Pro Bowl form. Gabbert may be improving, but he's not a franchise QB. Blackmon is a knucklehead and not as dynamic as I once thought. The linebackers are ballers and the d-line has some talent, but this is a broken franchise at it's core. MJD is gone after this year and thus will begin the rebuilding process...again.
Well folks, there you have it. Some quick thoughts on the season we have ahead of us. Look for weekly thoughts on the league throughout the year and enjoy opening weekend!
NFC WEST
Winner: coin flip between 49ers and Seahawks. Both teams are loaded, will hit you, and have dynamic QBs. It may come down to their two games, but they'll likely split those. I'll give the nod to the defending champs, but just barely.
49ers: Kaepernick will struggle a bit because he's still so young in terms of starts. I'm keeping an eye on the health of Patrick Willis and Frank Gore. The receiving corps would worry me a lot more if they hadn't acquired Boldin, they'll do enough to keep defenses honest. Best coach in the division and maybe the league and the bad taste of a Super Bowl loss. They're motivated.
Seahawks: Russel Wilson is the best QB in this division and this is arguably the second best roster in the division. Historically Pete Carroll has struggled with the finer details of game prep and management and I wonder if his exuberance and new-aged approach to running a team can overcome his shortcomings. Too much talking from Richard Sherman for him to live up to his own hype and I think he gets a bit exposed this year. In the end this team goes as Wilson goes. They'll win a lot of games and be impossible to beat at home.
Rams: The biggest question here is whether or not Sam Bradford has enough confidence to resurrect his career. Time is running out to build a supporting cast that Bradford can win with and that's a lot of pressure for a QB that's suffered from an incompetent front office. This defense is dynamic and much improved, but if they can't stop the 9ers or Seahawks' rushing attack they've got no shot. I like this team and think they're moving in the right direction, but if Bradford struggles this year it'll be another few years before they can find a replacement.
Cardinals: The Cards are the greatest unknown in this division. If the o-line can block well enough then they could challenge for a wildcard slot. It's that simple. The defense is very good, the receivers are smart and big, and the coach is solid. How they execute plays on offense will dictate their success.
AFC WEST
Winner: Broncos. You can't stop this offense and they have the second best QB in the league. Done and done.
Broncos: We know they can score points and they'll make the playoffs, but can they make the plays they need to advance in the postseason? Pencil in 11 wins and maybe a trip to New York in February.
Chiefs: I'm most curious about this team because their roster and coach are good enough to make a deep playoff run. The question remains how will Alex Smith be asked to play? Will he be asked to throw the ball down field? If not I think this team's ceiling is the same as it was for the 49ers when Smith was their QB. I wouldn't be surprised if they challenged for the division, but I think they're limited in the long-term primarily because Smith doesn't make dynamic throws on a regular basis.
Chargers: This has got to be one of the most mismanaged teams in NFL history. They've simply had a mass exodus of talent that hasn't been replaced. The Manning family knew what they were doing when refused to let Eli play in San Diego. This team needs a complete face lift, but unfortunately they still have a QB that's just talented and young enough to play out his 2-3 years of top productivity. They're good for 6 or so wins this year and a lot of frustration. Wouldn't want to be a rookie on this team.
Raiders: Terrell Pryor will be the starting QB. Things are bad in Oakland. Pryor is dynamic and has hopefully learned from sitting on the bench, but he still doesn't appear to have mastered the mental nuances of the game. It's going to be a long season for the team on the east side of the bay. Keep an eye on the players drafted by the new GM because that will tell you if he keeps his job. Raiders are mostly unwatchable this year.
NFC NORTH
Winner: Packers. Best run organization with the best QB and now the possibility of a workable running game.
Packers: If the Packers can run the ball effectively it's all over. Their defense isn't dominant, but their secondary makes plays and you always have to account for number 52. Greg Jennings wasn't a big loss and Randall Cobb looks like he's poised for a monster season. Packers win this division going away.
Bears: Tresman is a dynamic football mind, but this team has too much rebuilding to do on defense and their QB makes too many costly throws to keep his team in games. The offense will be better, but their defense takes a step back and the vets on this team get frustrated with a coaching change (firing Lovie Smith) they didn't really like. Oh, and the o-line is still struggles to keep Cutler upright.
Lions: Penalties and lack of discipline cost this team at least two games this year. Their end of the year stats on offense will confound you much like the Norv Turner led Chargers did. Swartz gets the boot and if the ownership can get the right coach this team will challenge for the division in 2014. Nick Saban will pick up the phone come February because this team has everything except an adult as a head coach.
Vikings: This is year the Vikings finally come to terms with the mistake of drafting Christian Ponder number 8 overall. They probably don't make the playoffs, but they win more games than you might think because AD is just that good.
AFC NORTH
Winner: Ravens. It's close between them and the Bengals.
Ravens: Ozzie Newsome is smarter than you, trust that he knows what he's doing in retooling this roster. Their biggest weakness is the receiving corps, which I think limits their bid for a repeat, but they are one of the most well coached and well run teams in the league. They'll be just fine.
Bengals: Andy Dalton is the limiting factor here. This team is loaded, but they're limited at the most crucial position, the position that wins championships in today's NFL. Dalton is easily the third best QB in this division and the other two have Super Bowl rings. I'm just not confident Dalton can win enough games against the likes of Flacco, Big Ben, Brady, Luck, and Manning let alone the QB/team they would face in New York. This organization has made vast improvements, but ultimately they've got the wrong QB to win it all.
Steelers: Great QB, great coach, limited playmakers on offense and an aging D. The demise of the Steelers is vastly over-stated, but they'll struggle again this year. Make no mistake though, they are one good draft away from contending for a championship again. Waiter, you still haven't brought me my o-lineman!
Browns: The sooner this team can part ways with Brandon Weeden the better off they'll be. Richardson is the second or third best back in this conference and Josh Gordon is a playmaker (and knucklehead). The defensive leadership is aging and they made a huge blunder overpaying for Kruger and drafting Mingo instead of Jarvis Jones, but there's hope in Cleveland. Teddy Bridgewater would be one hell of a shot in the arm come May wouldn't he?
NFC EAST
Winner: Giants. Best run organization coming off of a disappointing season. They'll be ready.
Giants: It's pretty cut and dry with this team. If the defensive line can put just a little more consistent pressure on opposing QBs and can stop the run a little more effectively then this team will be just fine. They won't run off a 4 game winning streak during the back half of the season, but you'll not want to play them come playoff time if they're clicking.
Cowboys: Dez Bryant looked unstoppable this preseason and if Miles Austin can stay healthy this team will be a nightmare. Romo makes plays, but he also makes anti-plays a la Brett Favre. In the end this team lacks the "it" in its head coach and GM to win it all.
Washington: RGIII either doesn't stay healthy for 16 games or does and has trouble making multiple reads without taking off an running. This team played over their skis in 2012 and don't really have the supporting cast to repeat that effort. Morris doesn't catch enough balls to adjust to the eight man, hyper-blitz fronts I'm expecting teams to throw at Washington. None of Washington's receivers really scare you and the defense is talented, but aging. Then again, RGIII might be the second coming of Jeebus.
Eagles: Michael Vick is not nearly as good as people think (only played 16 games once in his career and is a turn-over machine) and the backup is likely a career backup. The franchise QB for this team isn't on the roster and no manner of Chip Kelly genius is going to change the fact that this team lacks offensive playmakers outside of McCoy and the fact that their defense can't stop anybody. This team is going to be really interesting, but not so much until 2014.
AFC EAST
Winner: Patriots as soon as it's mathematically possible for them to have it locked up.
Patriots: Last time I checked the best QB in this conference is still playing in New England. He's never needed good receivers to win a championship and this young defense is getting better by the week. This is still the Pats division for as long as Brady is the QB and Belichick is the coach.
Dolphins: I'm starting to see in Tannehill what others appear to be seeing, a potentially dynamic QB that's slowly adjusting to the NFL. His supporting cast on offense is poor and the front office made one of the biggest draft mistakes in 2013 by taking Jordan with the number 3 pick. Tannelhill might end up being a victim of a poorly run franchise and never get the support or vision he needs from the front office to be successful.
Bills: Don't be surprised if Manuel leads them to some surprise wins. He's not Cam Newton from a talent perspective, but he probably better than Vince Young. If Spiller can stay health and the defensive overhaul results in fewer big plays then this team will make a splash. Ultimately they get exposed against the better teams in the conference, but they'll learn a lot from this year.
Jets: The only other unwatchable team in the NFL. Rex Ryan has coached himself out of any future head coaching positions and ultimately is better for it. Idzik will likely have a shot at drafting a real franchise QB in May and will be able to truly rebuild, so long as he doesn't take Manziel. This team is absurdly terrible on offense. I'll be surprised if they win more than 4 games.
NFC SOUTH
Winners: Falcons because their defense is just a tad bit better than the Saints'.
Falcons: This is the year the Falcons have to win a championship because after 2013 their deficiencies on defense will be too great to ignore and correct without massive turnover in personnel. I don't think they get there because they simply can't make enough plays on defense to stop either top team in the NFC West.
Saints: The Payton and Brees combo puts the fear of almighty back into opposing defenses, but the Saints' defense is something opposing offenses look forward to. Rob Ryan tries to do too much with his complex system and again doesn't have the personnel to execute his vision. The Saints will score 35+, but will give up 40+.
Panthers: If Cam can act like an adult on a consistent basis then this team can begin to realize it's potential. Beason, Kuchley, and Davis might be the most talented LB trio in the league if the two vets on the outside can stay healthy. Steve Smith is still a playmaker and Williams can be an effective runner. It's all on Cam, which makes me nervous.
Bucs: Toughest team in the division to figure out. Probably the most talented on both sides of the ball, but oddly limited at QB. I can't tell if Freeman just isn't a franchise QB or if he's still not reached his potential. This could be the best team in the division in 2014 if the later is true.
AFC SOUTH
Winner: Colts. Surprised?
Colts: Easily the third best QB in the conference on the third or forth best run organization in the conference, with one of the youngest and most dynamic rosters. This team doesn't beat itself and Luck just figures it out quicker than your team's defense can figure him out. A sleeping juggernaut begins to awaken in 2013.
Texans: Too overhyped, limited at QB, shrink in big games, and a limited coaching staff. They could win the division if Luck isn't as good as I think he's going to be this year and they've have made some really good picks in this year's draft. Easily the most talented roster in the division, but I'm just not sold on the Texans' coaching staff and QB. They don't do the little things well and rely too much on being more physically talented than their opponents. There's nothing cleaver, particularly creative, or smart about the way the Texans want to beat you and so it's that much easier to take advantage of the weakness they make obvious by being vanilla. They'd run away with the division if Luck weren't in it, but the only person on the Texans who's smarter than the second year prodigy is the oft injured Ed Reed, and that includes the coaching staff.
Titans: They are quietly building a team that their future franchise QB draft pick can step into and succeed. Locker is not talented enough to overcome the mismanagement of this roster over the years and unfortunately his time is all but run out. The o-line is better, CJ2K will likely be also, but they lack defensive playmakers and a QB that can make plays. The Titans are almost unwatchable this season.
Jags: Another almost an unwatchable team except for the fact that MJD is back and hopefully back to his Pro Bowl form. Gabbert may be improving, but he's not a franchise QB. Blackmon is a knucklehead and not as dynamic as I once thought. The linebackers are ballers and the d-line has some talent, but this is a broken franchise at it's core. MJD is gone after this year and thus will begin the rebuilding process...again.
Well folks, there you have it. Some quick thoughts on the season we have ahead of us. Look for weekly thoughts on the league throughout the year and enjoy opening weekend!
No comments:
Post a Comment