Monday, September 9, 2013

Week 1

Young QBs: We've still got to see how RGIII does tonight, but let's get started with looking at how the rest did.

They just don't got it: Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, and Weedon. In the case of the first three they are now in their third year and have yet to show that they've made any improvements. Weedon still has time to show that he can improve, but he'll be 30 in October so his timeline is roughly equivalent to the others. It doesn't take long to show that you can play QB at a high level as the guys I'll mention in a bit have done just that. Drafting these four guys early was a mistake, plain and simple. They simply aren't franchise QBs.

Cam Newton: I was actually impressed by Newton's game management here in that he didn't commit the big turnover. The offense appears to be much more balanced and if Greg Olson can hold onto a few more passes Newton's numbers look a lot better. Williams' fumble denies us the opportunity to see if Cam can pull out a hard fought victory, so the jury is still out, but things appear to be improving for "Superman". Let's see how they handle the adversity of a tough home loss.

Andrew Luck: Is still the best of the young guys. He's still the most advanced in terms of command of the offense and though his numbers weren't huge he still made fantastic throws under pressure and even scored using his legs.

Terrelle Pryor: WHAT?! This young man might actually have a shot at being a franchise guy. He didn't look lost, he didn't look panicked, and though he threw an interception late he did so trying to win the game. I'm shocked, but I won't completely reverse my opinion about Pryor's ceiling. He's certainly worth watching though.

E.J. Manuel: He certainly appears to be the best rookie QB of the class. Anytime you can almost beat Brady, throw 2 tds and no picks you're doing pretty good. Manuel wasn't spectacular, but the game didn't appear to big for him. This young man has poise and will be exciting to watch. Still not sold on a high ceiling, but I think his floor is higher than we thought on draft day.

Russell Wilson: is about as cool as they come. This was a tough game, but late in the game Wilson came alive, making great reads, difficult throws, and big plays. The go ahead td to Kearse was just gorgeous. Seahawks brass need to get this guy an outstanding outside receiver, because once they do he'll be unstoppable.

Colin Kaepernick: is really, really good. Kaepernick may be so talented that the shortcomings I saw Sunday afternoon may not really matter. What I saw was a QB that's still as comfortable in the pocket and who still has trouble with off balanced throws. These points are both a bit nit-picky, but if a team figures out how to cover Boldin well enough then I worry about Kaep's effectiveness. Then again the 49ers offense is such a multi-headed nightmare that I doubt a team will be able to defend them well. Kaep's game has a bit to go before he's truly unstoppable and that's pretty impressive given that he's only started 11 games. What a ceiling this young man has!

Ryan Tannehill: is more talented than the first four QBs I mentioned. I don't think he's an elite talent and I think he's handicaped by a below average owner and front office, but he'll make plays in this league.

Geno Smith: played a helluva game for a rookie. I'm still not buying any of his stock and if it hadn't been for the Bucs' lack of discipline, not just on the out of bounds play at the end of the game, Geno would not be that big a topic of conversation. If he comes out on Thursday and plays well then I'll start to reconsider how harsh I've been on him, but until then I'm still not convinced he's a franchise QB.

Dez Bryant: still doesn't appear to have figured out the subtlties of being an elite receiver. Bryant was 4th in targets among the big 4 skill players (Bryant, Austin, Witten, and Murray) and only managed to catch half of passes thrown to him. On several occasions he failed to run to the open spots in coverage and also failed to establish good position when covered by a defender, allowing the DB to swat away the ball. I feel bad that Bryant injured his ankle, but I feel worse because he's still not corrected the biggest flaw in his game. He may have some big games this year, but I have serious doubts he'll make the leap to elite before his career is over.

NFC West: is clearly the best division in football, and I don't even have to see tonight's games to know this. Arizona vs. St. Louis was one of the best games this weekend and you can see that those teams are really improved. San Fran and Seattle are fantastic teams with very good defenses and great young QBs. These division games are must watch TV.

Mike Wallace: Tannehill isn't as much of a downgrade from Big Ben as I thought, but boy you hate to see a player handle a situation like this. It's been one game and already Wallace is complaining to the media about his role in the offense. I'm worried that Wallace lacks perspective on his situation, which is only going to lead to more frustration and problems. Unfortunately the contract the Dolphins signed Wallace to somewhat justifies his perception of the situation, but instead of feeling entitled to more targets because of the money a company is paying him you'd prefer to see Wallace redouble his efforts in figuring out a way to get more involved in the offense. This situation says more about how poorly run the Dolphins are, but wise fans and NFL personnel saw this one coming. It's going to be a long year for Mr. Wallace.

Falcons/Saints: The issue with the Falcons is, and will continue to be, their defense. When it matters most they simply can't make crucial stops. I was a bit surprised the Saints' defense played so well. Maybe Payton is the perfect compliment to a guy like Rob Ryan and maybe this defense will continue to get better. The Saints are on their way back.

Lack of Discipline: Nothing drives me more crazy than talented teams that lack discipline. Three teams this weekend really worried me with their lack of discipline and I think if they don't get this issue addressed they'll end up losing games they shouldn't; one team has already done this. The Lions' lack of discipline is the least correctable because their coach appears to be just as much of a knucklehead as the players. But the issue is compounded by the presence of a sociopath at defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh is a bad dude, and I don't mean that in a good way. He appears to seek opportunities to hurt people on the field with the latest incident being a low block on a o-lineman that had no chance of making a play on a fumble return. His talent is considerable so it might be hard for the new coach to part ways with Suh come next year, but if I were the incoming coach I'd want no parts of this guy because there's no defense for his twisted sense of reality.

The Bucs' lack of discipline is puzzling because I like to think that there coach is above average. Ultimately I think Joss Freeman has shown that he's not the guy in Tampa. I think he's just talented enough to be considered a starter a la Donte Culpepper, but in the end he just doesn't make consistent or dynamic plays to start week in and week out. That puts a lot of pressure on a team, but the third down defensive penalties are really troublesome. Greg Schiano's ability as a head coach is on trial this season. He's earned a reputation for being a bit overly aggressive and unless he can reign in his team and instill a mindset of controlled aggression (and get a proper franchise QB) I think he's in trouble by the end of 2014.

The 49ers are the only team with a discipline problem that I think doesn't prevent them from winning a championship. Still, one has to wonder if Ahmad Brooks doesn't jump offsides on the opening drive in the Super Bowl would the Ravens have built the momentum that ultimately propelled them to victory (Boldin scored on the very next play). Fiery coaches like Jim Harbaugh struggle with modeling control for their teams and this was my worry when Harbaugh was hired. If he has a limitation it's that he doesn't appear to emphasize situational discipline enough with his players. The 9ers commit too many dumb penalties in big games for my liking.

Panthers Defense: is legit and have more talent at linebacker than all but maybe the 49ers. I'm very concerned if I'm the Bucs because I don't have a QB that can beat this defense without a running game.

Tonight's Games: I'm only watching one of these games and here's why. First, the second game comes one way to late. Next, the Texans and Chargers aren't at all interesting. Their QBs are B to B-, the Texans offensive schemes are vanilla while the Chargers' roster is not much better than the Raiders'. Lastly, I don't expect either of these teams to be particularly relevant come playoff time. As for the first game I'll be looking for two things: 1) How does RGIII handle the pass rush and 2) What does Chip Kelly have up his sleeve. That's it, that's all I care about. As with the teams in the other game I don't expect the Eagles or Washington to be Super Bowl contenders, but they are certainly interesting. I think it will be very difficult for RGIII to change his playing style from last year so I'm very curious to see how he'll be used differently and how he'll handle having to read more of the defense. As for Chip Kelly's offense I think it's going to be underwhelming because he doesn't yet have the tools at QB to pull off whatever genius he has lurking beneath is sleeves.

Enjoy the game(s) tonight and thanks for checking in!


No comments:

Post a Comment