Offseason Preview: AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck needs help, but he doesn't need much. He's already taken this team to back-to-back playoffs despite having one of the worst playoff rosters we've ever seen. The Colts need to pay attention to how the Broncos and Dolphins managed their legendary QBs and how the Patriots are managing theirs. If the Colts can give Luck a solid o-line and just one dynamic outside receiver (I'd trade two 2nd round picks and next year's 3rd to the Browns for Josh Gordon) then the Colts would be my pick for AFC champion for the next five years. The defense needs to be improved along the front, but that's not as urgent as their offensive needs. The Colts know what they're doing and hopefully won't depend too much on their star QB to the detriment of signing other offensive talent. Andrew Luck is better than what I thought he'd be and if the Colts manage well fans will mention his name before they mention Peyton. Yup, I said it!

Houston Texans

It's all about the head coach. Rumor has it current Penn State coach, Bill O'Brien, is the top candidate at the moment. If that's the case then I think the Texans will be set at the coaching position. Next, the Texans need a QB and if O'Brien is their head coach they'll get a good one in 2014. The rest is gravy as far as I'm concerned. This roster is loaded, and will only need minor tweaking to be competitive. Andre Johnson is still dominant and DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best young receivers in the game. I doesn't look like Ben Tate will be back (oh well) and Arian Foster is aging though he's special when healthy. Depth along the offensive line and linebacker would be my focus after getting the right coach and QB. This team is going to struggle to compete with Luck and the Colts and probably won't make headway in 2014. Their focus needs to be making sure they're young and dynamic on defense and can grind out games when necessary. With the right leadership Texans vs. Colts could be Steelers vs. Ravens of the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

I think they've got the right coach in Nashville. This team plays hard every week and is a tough out. Jake Locker isn't the guy, but I'm not sure they can get a franchise QB in this year's draft at the 11th pick. Giving Locker another year to develop won't be the worst thing in the world and if the Titans get some dynamic playmakers on the outside (Marquise Lee from USC maybe) it'll be that much easier to move on if Locker struggles again in 2014. Resigning Kenny Britt would be a mistake if he's still not buying in. Kendall Wright and Nate Washington are great number 2 receivers, but this team needs that dynamic outside playmaker. The defense is solid though they could use a rangy MLB a la Patrick Willis or Navarro Bowman. Chris Johnson seems to be regaining his MVP form, but I doubt he makes another pro bowl in his career. The Titans are in a tough spot. They're like that family who's trying to send their kid to college, but earn too much to qualify for lots of financial aid. This team is okay and in a division where they need to make a lot a big moves to compete they're kind of hamstrung by the current make-up of their team.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The only team in worse shape in the NFL than the Oakland Raiders is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like the Titans I think the Jags have the right coach, an okay defense, and a capable backup QB, but that's about it. This team needs a QB, but it absolutely cannot afford to miss after taking Blaine Gabbert. Luckily there are a lot of teams that need a franchise QB this year, which offers an opportunity for the Jags to trade out of the number 3 slot and stock pile picks. I think Teddy Bridgewater, if he comes out, is the only franchise QB worth taking in the first round this coming May. He'll be gone by pick 3 so if I were the Jags I'd trade with whatever sucker team gets desperate for a QB early. Chad Henne isn't taking this team to a division title, and neither would any rookie QB outside of Andrew Luck with this roster. The Jags would do well to have boring drafts for the next two to three years, build their offensive and defensive fronts, find some dynamic receivers, and look for a replacement for MJD. Chances are Jones-Drew is going to ask for money north of what Steven Jackson got from the Falcons. MJD is a great pro and a dynamic and stabilizing force for the franchise. I'd probably resign him to a two or three year deal if the numbers were right. I wouldn't want his contract to prevent me from signing a top free agent if the opportunity arose. As for Justin Blackmon I'd seriously consider trading him if the right offer came along. This team is dying in Jacksonville and hopefully will find a better fit in a city that can support the franchise. Otherwise it's going to be hell trying to get free agents to come and this coaching staff can't compete with Houston and Indy through the draft alone.

Offseason Preview: AFC WEST

Thought I might have forgotten about this topic? Not a chance! Let the GM season continue!

Denver Broncos
2014 would be the last year I'd expect Peyton to produce at a high level. I don't think the Broncos win it all this year, and if I'm right then they'll spend another year building around Peyton. Unlike the Colts when Peyton left, the Broncos have a great foundation for a young QB to step in a perform. Their current number 2 QB may be the successor, but if I were the Broncos GM I'd make sure I had a contingency plan should Osweiler not pan out. Other than that the Broncos need to focus on building depth at along the line and finding a replacement for Von Miller. It's sad that Miller torn his ACL so late in the season and as the GM I was already worried about Miller being able to stay out of trouble in the offseason. The Broncos have an enviable situation and don't have to do much to maintain their team this offseason, but if they're lazy it will hurt them when Manning retires after 2015.

Kansas City Chiefs
The only other team in this division that can afford to do less this offseason than the Broncos is the Chiefs. The Chiefs are the AFC version of the 49ers. Their defense isn't quite as dominant, but they have one thing in common, they've both had a solid, but limited QB as their starter. The 49ers got rid of Smith and are better for it. The Chiefs would do well to follow the 49ers' model and find a dynamic QB that can make aggressive throws down the field. Andy Reid is an all time great coach, but he hasn't won a title because he hasn't had a QB that can go out and win a big game. McNabb was very very good, but couldn't get Reid over the hump. The Chiefs aren't beating Brady or Manning and once those legends retire they'll have to contend with Luck and the Colts, whom they can't beat despite having a much better roster. The table is set for a young QB like Marcus Mariotta (he'll need two years on the bench) to learn from and eventually take the reigns from Smith when the time is right. It's that simple.

San Diego Chargers
Dynamic defense and a solid o-line. The Chargers are closer on the former than the later. They need Melvin Ingram to stay healthy, another pass rusher, and a solid left tackle first and foremost. Keenan Allen is about to see double and triple coverage every week so the Chargers' GM would be wise to look for another receiver to take some pressure off. Gates is getting old and needs to be replaced soon, but the Chargers shouldn't try to free up Allen with dynamic tight end. They'll need another solid wideout if they're offense is going to take it to the next level. I wouldn't offer Ryan Mathews another contract, at least not for starting RB money, so maybe now is the time for the Chargers to think about replacing him if he decides to leave after his rookie contract is up. The Chargers are in good shape, but they'll have to make some fairly aggressive moves this offseason.

Oakland Raiders
Last and least. This squad is in full rebuilding mode and desperately needs a QB, solid lines, and dynamic offensive players on the outside. Resigning McFadden to starting RB money would be disastrous. When healthy McFadden is a force, but he's never healthy and thus the Raiders have massively overpaid for him. I don't think Pryor or McGloin are the answer at QB, but they can fill the gap if the right QB isn't available. The defensive back seven is much improved so the Raiders would do well to draft high along the offensive and defensive lines. I'd be wary of taking a back or receiver high in the upcoming draft simply because the QB position is unstable, but if a Brandon Marshall or A.J. Green type comes along they should pull the trigger. Patience is the name of the game for the Raiders. Their drafts should be boring for the next two years. That's what happens when you're redoing your foundation. This team is two years from being competitive in this division and if they can stomach that fact and make really smart decisions they'll be ready to strike when Manning retires.

Predictions Review

Not enough sports writers do this, review their various predictions from early in the season, and while I'm not a sports writer I'd like to take the time to see how accurate I've been about my thoughts on the NFL. Let's start with my division winners predictions from earlier in the season.

NFC WEST

What I said: "Winner: coin flip between 49ers and Seahawks. Both teams are loaded, will hit you, and have dynamic QBs. It may come down to their two games, but they'll likely split those. I'll give the nod to the defending champs, but just barely."

What happened: I got this mostly right, but wrong on who eventually won the division. It was a toss up and if not for a few strange performances against lesser opponents and maybe a questionable call this would be the Niners' division again this year.

The interesting part: I had no idea the Cardinals would be this good down the stretch. This division is going to be even better than most of us thought in 2014 and the Cards will be in the thick of things come playoff time. The Rams are loaded with high draft picks and if they get a good young QB this division might be the best and most competitive we've ever seen.

AFC WEST

What I said: "Winner: Broncos. You can't stop this offense and they have the second best QB in the league. Done and done."

What happened: Pretty much nailed this one, but it wasn't hard to predict. Peyton had the best statistical year of a QB ever and teams simply couldn't stop the point onslaught. Got the order of the other teams in the division right too.

The interesting part: I didn't see the Chargers making the postseason and they almost didn't. The Chiefs are what we all thought they were and proved to be limited down the stretch while the Raiders showed that they are still a long ways away. Peyton won't reign forever so it will be very interesting to see how these teams prepare for his retirement.

NFC NORTH

What I said: "Winner: Packers. Best run organization with the best QB and now the possibility of a workable running game."

What happened: Another correct prediction, but I sweated this one out. The Bears should have won the final game of the season, but in all fairness wouldn't have been as close had Rodgers not broken his collarbone. The Packers are simply the best team in this division because their QB and organization is the best in the division. Got the order right on all teams again in this division.

The interesting part: To me it's the Lions and the Vikings. Like the NFC West this division is loaded with talent. The Bears will be fine and should only get better with Tresmann at the helm. The Lions need new leadership and are crazy if they keep Schwartz as their head coach while the Vikes need a franchise QB to be competitive. I don't expect the order of who finishes where in this division to change next year, but overall the NFC North should be better in 2014.

AFC NORTH

What I said: "Winner: Ravens. It's close between them and the Bengals."

What happened: Similar to my NFC West prediction I got this one partially correct. The Ravens simply weren't as consistent as the Bengals despite the Bengals having more talent on both sides of the ball. The Ravens will bounce back and the Bengals will probably fail to make it to the AFC championship game.

The interesting part: I was right about the demise of the Steelers being vastly over-stated. They've found a running game and their defense has some young talent that should continue the defensive legacy of the Steel City. This team cannot afford to continue to ignore and/or whiff on o-lineman however. I'm a bit surprised the Browns fired their head coach after only one year, but management likely knows something I don't. Contrary to popular belief this team could afford to trade Trent Richardson and if they hire the right head coach they'll be able to take advantage of their first round surplus of picks in May.

NFC EAST

What I said: "Winner: Giants. Best run organization coming off of a disappointing season. They'll be ready."

What happened: That's what I asked myself on this pick, What Happened?! This used to be one of the best divisions in football and now it's a shadow of itself. The Giants look like their in the twilight of a strong run and will need to make some serious personnel overall decisions. The Cowboys probably win the division if Romo doesn't slip a disk in week 16, but no one is scared of them. The biggest surprise is the Eagles and they 7-1 record after the bye week. Chip Kelly knows what he's doing, but as I said before his franchise QB is not on this team. 

The interesting part: The Eagles playoff run and who Washington hires as their head coach. Yup, that's all I have to say about that.

AFC EAST

What I said: "Winner: Patriots as soon as it's mathematically possible for them to have it locked up."

What happened: Not quite correct on the manner in which the Pats won the division, but correct in my pick. This was probably the most surprising division in football, but let's not forget that the Pats finished the regular season with a 12-4 record without Gronk and their two best defensive players for a least half the season. New England is the best team in the last ten years and it's not even close. If Brady had the talent Peyton has the Pats would be a threat to go unbeaten every single year. 

The interesting part: My eyes are on the Dolphins and E.J. Manuel. Miami will have a bitter taste in their mouth after losing a home game to make the playoffs. I'll be interested in how they use that disappointment for 2014. They've got holes on their roster, but their QB is a gamer. Manuel needs to get healthy and figure out a way to stay that way if he's going to be the franchise guy in Buffalo. His skill set is obvious and the coaching staff can coach in the big leagues. The only thing standing in the way of progress is consistent QB play.

NFC SOUTH

What I said: "Winners: Falcons because their defense is just a tad bit better than the Saints'."

What happened: Crapped my pants on this one. It happens, but look what I said about the Panthers:

"If Cam can act like an adult on a consistent basis then this team can begin to realize it's potential...It's all on Cam, which makes me nervous."

Cam has acted like an adult and this team has responded better than many of us thought. I didn't think it would happen, but I've been told I'm too hard on people. Cam is like nothing this league has ever seen and this team is scary good on defense. I don't know what to make of the Falcons other than their dynamic offensive playmakers weren't healthy this season. I was wrong about the Saints' defense, but not wrong about their limitations. 

The interesting part: This division belongs to Carolina so long as Cam continues to get better and the coaching staff and front office give him weapons. I don't much care about anything else, because the other teams are mostly a known quantity. All eyes on Carolina!

AFC SOUTH

What I said: "Winner: Colts. Surprised?"

What happened: Best call of the year! The Texans were limited at QB and coach as I said and the Colts were not. This division is awful outside of Indianapolis as they are the only team that has a franchise QB.

The interesting part: The Colts' offseason and who the Texans hire as their head coach. I don't care much about the Jags or the Titans because their rosters are really limited and are years away from competing with the Colts. The Texans have an opportunity to not the current division champs run away with the next 3-5 division crowns if they get the right QB and coach to pair with a loaded roster.  This will be the single most important offseason for the league's youngest franchise. 

All in all my predictions weren't too bad if I say so myself. If you like reading my stuff don't be afraid to comment and/or follow this blog. Thanks for reading!

Playoffs!

This is always a bittersweet time in the NFL season as the league bifurcates into the good and the bad. Most of the league will be sitting at home watching the supposed better teams play for a championship. The quality of play in the playoffs is usually better, but this time also signals the impending end of another NFL season. Endings, no matter how exciting or enjoyable, are always a bit sad. On the other hand, the end of the regular season ushers in the season of the GM, a time of year where personnel decisions and speculation increase ten-fold as teams build for the future. I love the GM season and will talk about it a lot over the next half year. For now though, let's talk about the postseason, the teams, and how I like to make it to MetLife Stadium in February.

Playoff Seeding
The NFL has to fix this because the system of seeding is stupid. As it stands now any team that wins its division, regardless of their regular season record, hosts a playoff game. In the AFC this format is not a problem because the records of all playoff teams align with their seeds. In the NFC however the seeding system has created two unearned advantages for the home teams. The 49ers finished the season 12-4, tied for second best record in the NFL, one game behind the 13-3 Seahawks, but will have to go on the road to play the 8-7-1 Packers. Let me say this another way. The 49ers won eight more games than they lost but will have to travel to play a team that won only one more game than they lost. Like the 49ers, the Saints finished one game behind their division rival and reigning champ, but will have to go on the road to play a team with a worse record than them.

Here's the solution. If a team wins their division then they should be guaranteed a playoff spot, that's it. Where a team is seeded once it qualifies for the playoffs should be determined by record alone. In case of teams that have qualified for the playoffs having the same record the tiebreaker should go to any team that is a division champ (regardless of regular season head-to-head outcome with other tied team), and then be decided by head-to-head result if neither team is a division champion. As I said before, the AFC got it right because two out of the three wild card teams with 11-5 records that are hosting playoff games are division champions. The wildcard playoff picture in the NFC should have the 49ers and Saints hosting playoff games, because their records are better than the Packers and Eagles. Come on NFL, get it right for 2014.


Now to step down from my soapbox and talk games. Let's run them down starting with the early Saturday game.

Chiefs @ Colts
Winner: Colts
I'm not tremendously confident with this pick. Come to think of it I don't have a ton of confidence in any of my picks for this round. That's what makes the playoffs great and this year particularly interesting. This game will hinge on how well the Colts stop Jamaal Charles. In their last meeting Charles got loose, but only had 18 touches. Alex Smith was not very effective in this game and Chiefs' defense didn't have an answer for Luck's efficiency. Andrew Luck is the third best QB in the AFC playoffs and is never out of a game. He's got playoff experience and an offense that's well balanced. The overall talent advantage belongs to the Chiefs, but their QB is not the type to make dynamic plays in key spots. The Colts have to run the ball effectively to control this game and keep the home field advantage. If Jamaal Charles gets 20-25 touches the Chiefs will be hard to beat. I like the Colts in a close game, but won't surprised if the Chiefs win by 10+.

Saints @ Eagles
Winner: Saints
The Saints don't play well on the road, but this team is battle tested in the post season. They're angry about their road reputation and they have the most accurate and one of the most prolific QBs to ever play the game. The Eagles are young, innovative, confident, but inconsistent at times though they've only lost 1 out of the last 8 games. A lot of how this game will go depends on what the weather is like this Saturday. If there is any kind of precipitation then the Saints are in trouble. If it's mild then things might be more even. I typically don't like first time playoff coaches and QBs to win, but Chip Kelly might be that good of a coach. Like the early Saturday game this one hinges on a star running back. If Shady McCoy gets loose and touches the ball north of 25 times the Saints will have a tough time keeping up. I think this game is close early on and stays close because both coaches make good half-time adjustments. Saints find a way to win, but only if the weather is good.

Chargers @ Bengals
Winner: Bengals
The Chargers are a hard team to figure out. They win games they should lose and lose games they should win. The Bengals are talented, but limited at QB. This game could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers won, but when in doubt I go with the home team with a better defense, a strong running game, and more dynamic offensive weapons. Philip Rivers is the wild card in this matchup. If he limits the turnovers and gains confidence early then I think the Bengals are done. I like the Chargers' psychology better than the Bengals. The former are tough and never give up. The later team is immature at times, and not particularly resilient in crisis. Keep your eye on Rivers in this matchup. The more comfortable he is the worse it will be for the home team.

49ers @ Packers
Winner: 49ers
I hate that this game is in Lambo, but I've talked enough about why. The Packers have Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers back and after a huge win to make the playoffs are very confident. The Pack are itching to get their revenge on the team that's had their number over the last two years and have an excellent shot at knocking them off. The 49ers are simply a better team than the Packers however. Their team, the 9ers, is built for tough, cold weather games and they have a defense that intimidates. Colin Kaepernick is still a long ways away from being close to Aaron Rodgers. We've seen flashes, but Kaep is still a one-read QB that struggles with consistent mechanics and poise in the pocket. The Packers are going to have to get creative on defense in order to make Kaepernick uncomfortable and without Clay Mathews that's going to be tough. The 49ers need to play to their strength in this game and run the ball A LOT, work off of play action, milk the clock, and get pressure on Rodgers with their front 4. The Packers can run the ball effectively so watch to see if Eddie Lacy gets going. If this turns into a scoring slug fest then I don't like the 49ers' chances because Kaepernick will struggle to make the decisions and throws needed to win the game. San Fran may be a fair weather team, but they play like they're from Anchorage. This is not the game for Harbaugh to get too creative, but don't be surprised if the largely absent from the regular season read-option makes a strong playoff cameo. Niners by 10 after a close first half.


If my predictions are correct then this is what the divisional match ups would be:

Colts @ Broncos: Broncos get the slight edge, but Luck is built for the postseason while Peyton is built to break regular season records.

Bengals @ Pats: Pats win because the Bengals can't overcome this QB mismatch or a well rested opponent.

Saints @ Seahawks: Saints get their asses kicked once again by a team that's simply more physical and more talented than they are.

49ers @ Panthers: Best game of the weekend and really hard to call. The Niners defense figures out a way to neutralize Cam's weapons and continue to run the ball well and pull out a close one.


This is only the beginning folks. Stay tuned for my continued thoughts on the playoffs and the GM season. Enjoy the games!

Week 15 Takeaways

Getting close to the playoffs! Here's what I've been chewing on:

1) The Cowboys: One of the worst losses I've ever seen. Who's fault is it? Romo is certainly culpable, but did you know the Cowboys ran the ball seven times in the second half? The Cowboys' defense gave up 37 points, at home, to a backup QB! Yes, Romo made another bad play late in games, but did you see how he avoided Clay Mathews to make an off balance throw that if it had been two inches more to the right Miles Austin probably scores a TD and puts the game away? This loss is on an incompetent organization and GM that expects their main employee to cover their blunders in management. Jerry Jones doesn't know his team, he doesn't know his personnel, and he doesn't know how to fix it. Romo is not Brees, Manning, or Brady. He's appear to have the level of focus, awareness, or luck to not make big mistakes in key situations. But Romo is closer to those guys than he is any other class of QB that's ever played the game. This team would probably be the worst in the league if it wasn't for their QB; their ownership and management are just that clueless.

2) The Dolphins can play football. I'm completely surprised by how poised and effective Tannehill has played so far in his young career. The Dolphins probably don't win the game if Gronk is healthy and the Pats defense is not good, but I'm still impressed with how well Tannehill played down the stretch. The Dolphins need to improve their roster, but they've found their franchise QB.

3) The Saints suck away from home. I'm not surprised by how well the Rams played because their front seven is as good as any other team in the league. The Saints don't scare anybody outside of the Superdome, especially if you've got a young talent along the defensive line. We forget that this defense, though it's much improved, was one of the worst the league had ever seen last year. On top of that they don't have any receivers on the outside that require you to role coverage to other than Jimmy Graham. The key to stoping the Saints is shutting down their running game and disrupting Brees' timing. Three out of the four teams to beat New Orleans have young, scary defensives that make it difficult for backs and QBs to get going. Seattle is running away with the number one seed and so the Saints will have to go on the road at least once this year. Right now that's looking like a guaranteed L if they travel to the North West.

4) The Panthers and the 49ers kick too many field goals. The former team is limited by the offensive supporting cast. Cam has stepped back from the precipice of Bustville, but the skill players he has to work with are not dynamic play makers. The 49ers' QB is still learning how to play within the pocket and his supporting cast is just now getting healthy. I like these two teams going forward, but they are limited in a way I don't see in Seattle. Field goals won't win championships and unless the Panthers and 49ers pick up their offensive efficiency I don't know that they'll be able to keep up in the postseason.

5) The Chargers and Titans have found their franchise coaches. When a team that knows it's inferior and knows it probably won't make the postseason plays as hard as these two teams did this past week you know that team has quality leadership. I love seeing the early stages of positive change in an organization. Peyton and Luck's teams are superior, but also vulnerable. I'll have my eyes on these teams during the offseason.

I predict the Ravens will win tonights game in Detroit and if that happens I think it's the final nail in the Jim Swartz coffin. He has to win this game to keep up with Chicago and Green Bay. Detroit will commit too many penalties and give up one or big plays in bad spots due to lack of discipline. Harbaugh is a better coach you'll see that tonight. Enjoy!

The team in Washington

Is a hot mess of a franchise. I admit that I was fooled by RGIII's rookie success. It seems everyone was. This story about Shanahan being packed and ready to go at the end of last season is all the evidence we need to know just how bad things are in D.C. Let's break this down by the individuals involved as see where each went wrong.

Dan Snyder: Colin Cowherd is fond of saying that two things make guys stupid, beautiful women and sports. The later certainly applies to Synder. Jerry Jones is uncomfortable with the level of micromanaging Synder is allegedly engaged in. Seven coaches, four playoff appearances, and two playoff wins since he took over as owner 14 years ago. The problem with owners like Synder and Jones, and the late Al Davis, is that they are insane. They keep doing the same thing expecting a different result. It's actually mind boggling to witness how stupid these guys are when it comes to running their teams, especially given the examples of success they have around them. Building a good football team is not rocket science, it's not easy, but the formula is very straight forward.

Synder is too close, too buddy-buddy with RGIII according to recent accounts. The owner and star QB relationship has disrupted the structure of the team and undermined Shanahan's authority. Suddenly all of the press conferences about what's been going on inside the locker room make sense. Snyder has given RGIII an open invitation to the mic and Shanahan clearly doesn't have the clout to reign his QB in. Snyder got a taste of how much the fans loved RGIII so he figured he'd make his star QB even more visible and accessible in 2013. Dumb. Dumb because he doesn't know his team or the game well enough to know that his squad played way over their skis last year. Snyder is a head line chasing owner, not a championship chasing owner. He wants to win the PR battle more than he wants to win on Sundays. Or at least he thinks he can devote equal attention to both and have success. Owners like Dan Snyder remind us that life isn't fair, that incompetence can win over intelligence, and that rich humans are humans first. More on the implications of the Shanahan story in a bit.

Shanahan: Mike Shanahan is the guy who's been dating his partner for a while and after he/she does something truly crazy, he almost leaves, but then decides to stay. If you get to the point to where you seriously plan to leave any relationship then it's best to just do it and not look back. I'm not sure what Shanahan thought he was going to gain by staying in Washington and I'm disappointed that he didn't leave last year. Oh yeah, it would have been bad for him. The media and public would have destroyed him and he probably wouldn't have gotten another coaching job in the NFL. As it stands now though, things aren't that much better and now he has to answer questions about almost quitting last year. There's no coming back from this situation and now the real reason for this cluster&#@, Dan Snyder's incompetence, will be lost in Shanahan's flip flopping. Relationships rarely get less crazy once the crazy comes out. If the crazy is crazy enough to make you pack your things then you're only making it worse by convincing yourself that either you can handle the crazy or that the crazy will go away.

RGIII: He's young and unfortunately has walked into the real world with a delusional football moron holding his hand. RGIII's got to wise up quick or he's going to be out of the league in five years. RGIII has gotten too close to the owner and allowed himself to be alienated from his teammates and coaches. He's bought into his early success too much and allowed other people to control his inner scoreboard. I worry that he may not have a good inner scoreboard because of how poorly he's navigated this year. Griffin needs to drastically change his mode of operation for next year, but here's why RGIII's career is in serious jeopardy...

1) Dan Snyder is the worst owner in football because he is so far incapable of changing his management style in the face of his failure.

2) Snyder has driven away too many coaches to attract any good young talent. Shanahan is done after this year if not before unless Snyder begs him to stay. Shanahan should stay only if Snyder promises to be more like Robert Kraft and less like Al Davis. A young talented head coach would be stupid to work for Snyder unless he changes his ownership style because said coach will never have enough control over his team to win consistently. Snyder will never attract top coaching talent and he's probably too stupid to know that the reason is him.

3) RGIII needs a brilliant young coach and GM to be successful. He simply won't last in this league without a creative and disciplined coach, because RGIII's panic default is to run and he's simply too small to last as a runner in the NFL. This team also needs a GM to build the defense and manage the draft and free agency better. Good luck getting those two important pieces with an owner with a track record like Snyders.

I'm saddened by what I see in Washington because I think RGIII is a good young man and could be good for this league. He won't reach his potential because his boss is an idiot and he's so far too naive to see the consequences of his actions and the actions of others. Guys like Jones and Snyder make money and make the league money, but they are not good for the game of football. If I were a young star player I'd never sign a second contract with either team. The chance to really shine a bright light on ownership incompetence past when Shanahan decided to stay with his delusional, dumb as rocks, crazy-ass boss. Life is not fair, and it's often the young and less empowered that pay the price. RGIII's best year might have been his first.

Week 14!

Okay, it's crunch time now. Four games left in the regular season and a lot on the line for a number of teams. Now is where you really need to pay attention to how teams perform, because it's the momentum teams build in these next final weeks that carries them to a championship. Pretenders don't last during this time of year and contenders, though they may stumble, don't lose stupid. Let's get into the important match ups and highlight the important things to look for.

Colts vs. Bengals
I'm fascinated by this game. Both teams lead their division and both teams are seriously flawed. The Colts have the better QB (and it's not close), but the Bengals have the better overall roster and home field advantage. I don't think either of these teams makes it to the Super Bowl so this will be an important game to gauge the trajectory of each team. The Colts have a brighter future because their QB will probably be in Canton, five years after he retires. The weather is going to be bad so I'll be looking to see how well the Colts assert their running game, manage the weather, and the hostile crowd. As for the Bengals I'll be watching how Andy Dalton handles a big home game. I'll think the Bengals win, but I want to see how much a part of that Dalton is because if this team is ever going to win a championship Dalton has to be the driving force. He'll never be in Luck's universe, but maybe he can be a Trent Dilfer type for a championship Bengals team.

Lions vs. Eagles
Jim Swartz has to win this game to keep ownership's confidence in his job. Traditionally this has been the type of game the Lions lose and I wonder how the team is functioning mentally after a big Thanksgiving game win and with a lot of time off. I'm skeptical of the Lions in this spot because I think they won't take the Eagles seriously enough and I think Chip Kelly is a smarter/better coach than Swartz. The Lions' offense, when the running game isn't rolling, relies too heavily on Megatron, and while I think the Eagles will struggle to stop the all powerful Decepticon in pads I don't have much confidence that they'll be able to keep up with what Kelly, Foles, and McCoy will throw at them. If the Lions get down by 14 I think it's a done deal and it's the beginning of the end for their head coach.

Bills vs. Bucs
I know, neither team has a shot at the postseason, but I'm interested in this game because I think both of these teams will be interesting in 2014. I'm not sold on Schiano, but he's managed to get his guy at the helm at QB and the Bucs are playing with fire. Ultimately I think Glennon is a lot like Dalton and lacks the "it" quality to beat Cam and Brees on a consistent basis. The more interesting team in this matchup is the Bills and E.J. Manuel. We know he's a high character guy, but I want to know just how much of his character is rubbing off on the rest of the team. We'll know his impact by how hard this team plays down the stretch. I think Manuel might be a franchise guy. If he is this team will be a tough out for teams and Manuel will play well.

Cards vs. Rams
Must win game for Cards if they are going to keep pace for a wildcard spot. The Rams are a QB away from being on par with the rest of the division and their defense plays hard. I don't think the Cards make the post season because their o-line is below average and they have virtually no running game. The outcome of this game is a toss-up in my opinion so keep your eye on how the losing team goes down and how they deal with defeat, especially if it's the Cards.

49ers vs. Seahawks
This game means more to the 9ers than the Seahawks, but like some of the other games, I'm more interested in how this game plays out than I am in the final score. The Seahawks think they have the 49ers' number and I'll agree with them if they come out and dominate San Fran on the road. I think this game comes down to the play of Kaepernick. He's looked lost against the Seahawks and will need to play lights out to match Russell Wilson. I think the 49ers win a close one because they want this game more.

Enjoy the games!