Offseason Preview: AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck needs help, but he doesn't need much. He's already taken this team to back-to-back playoffs despite having one of the worst playoff rosters we've ever seen. The Colts need to pay attention to how the Broncos and Dolphins managed their legendary QBs and how the Patriots are managing theirs. If the Colts can give Luck a solid o-line and just one dynamic outside receiver (I'd trade two 2nd round picks and next year's 3rd to the Browns for Josh Gordon) then the Colts would be my pick for AFC champion for the next five years. The defense needs to be improved along the front, but that's not as urgent as their offensive needs. The Colts know what they're doing and hopefully won't depend too much on their star QB to the detriment of signing other offensive talent. Andrew Luck is better than what I thought he'd be and if the Colts manage well fans will mention his name before they mention Peyton. Yup, I said it!

Houston Texans

It's all about the head coach. Rumor has it current Penn State coach, Bill O'Brien, is the top candidate at the moment. If that's the case then I think the Texans will be set at the coaching position. Next, the Texans need a QB and if O'Brien is their head coach they'll get a good one in 2014. The rest is gravy as far as I'm concerned. This roster is loaded, and will only need minor tweaking to be competitive. Andre Johnson is still dominant and DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best young receivers in the game. I doesn't look like Ben Tate will be back (oh well) and Arian Foster is aging though he's special when healthy. Depth along the offensive line and linebacker would be my focus after getting the right coach and QB. This team is going to struggle to compete with Luck and the Colts and probably won't make headway in 2014. Their focus needs to be making sure they're young and dynamic on defense and can grind out games when necessary. With the right leadership Texans vs. Colts could be Steelers vs. Ravens of the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

I think they've got the right coach in Nashville. This team plays hard every week and is a tough out. Jake Locker isn't the guy, but I'm not sure they can get a franchise QB in this year's draft at the 11th pick. Giving Locker another year to develop won't be the worst thing in the world and if the Titans get some dynamic playmakers on the outside (Marquise Lee from USC maybe) it'll be that much easier to move on if Locker struggles again in 2014. Resigning Kenny Britt would be a mistake if he's still not buying in. Kendall Wright and Nate Washington are great number 2 receivers, but this team needs that dynamic outside playmaker. The defense is solid though they could use a rangy MLB a la Patrick Willis or Navarro Bowman. Chris Johnson seems to be regaining his MVP form, but I doubt he makes another pro bowl in his career. The Titans are in a tough spot. They're like that family who's trying to send their kid to college, but earn too much to qualify for lots of financial aid. This team is okay and in a division where they need to make a lot a big moves to compete they're kind of hamstrung by the current make-up of their team.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The only team in worse shape in the NFL than the Oakland Raiders is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like the Titans I think the Jags have the right coach, an okay defense, and a capable backup QB, but that's about it. This team needs a QB, but it absolutely cannot afford to miss after taking Blaine Gabbert. Luckily there are a lot of teams that need a franchise QB this year, which offers an opportunity for the Jags to trade out of the number 3 slot and stock pile picks. I think Teddy Bridgewater, if he comes out, is the only franchise QB worth taking in the first round this coming May. He'll be gone by pick 3 so if I were the Jags I'd trade with whatever sucker team gets desperate for a QB early. Chad Henne isn't taking this team to a division title, and neither would any rookie QB outside of Andrew Luck with this roster. The Jags would do well to have boring drafts for the next two to three years, build their offensive and defensive fronts, find some dynamic receivers, and look for a replacement for MJD. Chances are Jones-Drew is going to ask for money north of what Steven Jackson got from the Falcons. MJD is a great pro and a dynamic and stabilizing force for the franchise. I'd probably resign him to a two or three year deal if the numbers were right. I wouldn't want his contract to prevent me from signing a top free agent if the opportunity arose. As for Justin Blackmon I'd seriously consider trading him if the right offer came along. This team is dying in Jacksonville and hopefully will find a better fit in a city that can support the franchise. Otherwise it's going to be hell trying to get free agents to come and this coaching staff can't compete with Houston and Indy through the draft alone.

Offseason Preview: AFC WEST

Thought I might have forgotten about this topic? Not a chance! Let the GM season continue!

Denver Broncos
2014 would be the last year I'd expect Peyton to produce at a high level. I don't think the Broncos win it all this year, and if I'm right then they'll spend another year building around Peyton. Unlike the Colts when Peyton left, the Broncos have a great foundation for a young QB to step in a perform. Their current number 2 QB may be the successor, but if I were the Broncos GM I'd make sure I had a contingency plan should Osweiler not pan out. Other than that the Broncos need to focus on building depth at along the line and finding a replacement for Von Miller. It's sad that Miller torn his ACL so late in the season and as the GM I was already worried about Miller being able to stay out of trouble in the offseason. The Broncos have an enviable situation and don't have to do much to maintain their team this offseason, but if they're lazy it will hurt them when Manning retires after 2015.

Kansas City Chiefs
The only other team in this division that can afford to do less this offseason than the Broncos is the Chiefs. The Chiefs are the AFC version of the 49ers. Their defense isn't quite as dominant, but they have one thing in common, they've both had a solid, but limited QB as their starter. The 49ers got rid of Smith and are better for it. The Chiefs would do well to follow the 49ers' model and find a dynamic QB that can make aggressive throws down the field. Andy Reid is an all time great coach, but he hasn't won a title because he hasn't had a QB that can go out and win a big game. McNabb was very very good, but couldn't get Reid over the hump. The Chiefs aren't beating Brady or Manning and once those legends retire they'll have to contend with Luck and the Colts, whom they can't beat despite having a much better roster. The table is set for a young QB like Marcus Mariotta (he'll need two years on the bench) to learn from and eventually take the reigns from Smith when the time is right. It's that simple.

San Diego Chargers
Dynamic defense and a solid o-line. The Chargers are closer on the former than the later. They need Melvin Ingram to stay healthy, another pass rusher, and a solid left tackle first and foremost. Keenan Allen is about to see double and triple coverage every week so the Chargers' GM would be wise to look for another receiver to take some pressure off. Gates is getting old and needs to be replaced soon, but the Chargers shouldn't try to free up Allen with dynamic tight end. They'll need another solid wideout if they're offense is going to take it to the next level. I wouldn't offer Ryan Mathews another contract, at least not for starting RB money, so maybe now is the time for the Chargers to think about replacing him if he decides to leave after his rookie contract is up. The Chargers are in good shape, but they'll have to make some fairly aggressive moves this offseason.

Oakland Raiders
Last and least. This squad is in full rebuilding mode and desperately needs a QB, solid lines, and dynamic offensive players on the outside. Resigning McFadden to starting RB money would be disastrous. When healthy McFadden is a force, but he's never healthy and thus the Raiders have massively overpaid for him. I don't think Pryor or McGloin are the answer at QB, but they can fill the gap if the right QB isn't available. The defensive back seven is much improved so the Raiders would do well to draft high along the offensive and defensive lines. I'd be wary of taking a back or receiver high in the upcoming draft simply because the QB position is unstable, but if a Brandon Marshall or A.J. Green type comes along they should pull the trigger. Patience is the name of the game for the Raiders. Their drafts should be boring for the next two years. That's what happens when you're redoing your foundation. This team is two years from being competitive in this division and if they can stomach that fact and make really smart decisions they'll be ready to strike when Manning retires.

Predictions Review

Not enough sports writers do this, review their various predictions from early in the season, and while I'm not a sports writer I'd like to take the time to see how accurate I've been about my thoughts on the NFL. Let's start with my division winners predictions from earlier in the season.

NFC WEST

What I said: "Winner: coin flip between 49ers and Seahawks. Both teams are loaded, will hit you, and have dynamic QBs. It may come down to their two games, but they'll likely split those. I'll give the nod to the defending champs, but just barely."

What happened: I got this mostly right, but wrong on who eventually won the division. It was a toss up and if not for a few strange performances against lesser opponents and maybe a questionable call this would be the Niners' division again this year.

The interesting part: I had no idea the Cardinals would be this good down the stretch. This division is going to be even better than most of us thought in 2014 and the Cards will be in the thick of things come playoff time. The Rams are loaded with high draft picks and if they get a good young QB this division might be the best and most competitive we've ever seen.

AFC WEST

What I said: "Winner: Broncos. You can't stop this offense and they have the second best QB in the league. Done and done."

What happened: Pretty much nailed this one, but it wasn't hard to predict. Peyton had the best statistical year of a QB ever and teams simply couldn't stop the point onslaught. Got the order of the other teams in the division right too.

The interesting part: I didn't see the Chargers making the postseason and they almost didn't. The Chiefs are what we all thought they were and proved to be limited down the stretch while the Raiders showed that they are still a long ways away. Peyton won't reign forever so it will be very interesting to see how these teams prepare for his retirement.

NFC NORTH

What I said: "Winner: Packers. Best run organization with the best QB and now the possibility of a workable running game."

What happened: Another correct prediction, but I sweated this one out. The Bears should have won the final game of the season, but in all fairness wouldn't have been as close had Rodgers not broken his collarbone. The Packers are simply the best team in this division because their QB and organization is the best in the division. Got the order right on all teams again in this division.

The interesting part: To me it's the Lions and the Vikings. Like the NFC West this division is loaded with talent. The Bears will be fine and should only get better with Tresmann at the helm. The Lions need new leadership and are crazy if they keep Schwartz as their head coach while the Vikes need a franchise QB to be competitive. I don't expect the order of who finishes where in this division to change next year, but overall the NFC North should be better in 2014.

AFC NORTH

What I said: "Winner: Ravens. It's close between them and the Bengals."

What happened: Similar to my NFC West prediction I got this one partially correct. The Ravens simply weren't as consistent as the Bengals despite the Bengals having more talent on both sides of the ball. The Ravens will bounce back and the Bengals will probably fail to make it to the AFC championship game.

The interesting part: I was right about the demise of the Steelers being vastly over-stated. They've found a running game and their defense has some young talent that should continue the defensive legacy of the Steel City. This team cannot afford to continue to ignore and/or whiff on o-lineman however. I'm a bit surprised the Browns fired their head coach after only one year, but management likely knows something I don't. Contrary to popular belief this team could afford to trade Trent Richardson and if they hire the right head coach they'll be able to take advantage of their first round surplus of picks in May.

NFC EAST

What I said: "Winner: Giants. Best run organization coming off of a disappointing season. They'll be ready."

What happened: That's what I asked myself on this pick, What Happened?! This used to be one of the best divisions in football and now it's a shadow of itself. The Giants look like their in the twilight of a strong run and will need to make some serious personnel overall decisions. The Cowboys probably win the division if Romo doesn't slip a disk in week 16, but no one is scared of them. The biggest surprise is the Eagles and they 7-1 record after the bye week. Chip Kelly knows what he's doing, but as I said before his franchise QB is not on this team. 

The interesting part: The Eagles playoff run and who Washington hires as their head coach. Yup, that's all I have to say about that.

AFC EAST

What I said: "Winner: Patriots as soon as it's mathematically possible for them to have it locked up."

What happened: Not quite correct on the manner in which the Pats won the division, but correct in my pick. This was probably the most surprising division in football, but let's not forget that the Pats finished the regular season with a 12-4 record without Gronk and their two best defensive players for a least half the season. New England is the best team in the last ten years and it's not even close. If Brady had the talent Peyton has the Pats would be a threat to go unbeaten every single year. 

The interesting part: My eyes are on the Dolphins and E.J. Manuel. Miami will have a bitter taste in their mouth after losing a home game to make the playoffs. I'll be interested in how they use that disappointment for 2014. They've got holes on their roster, but their QB is a gamer. Manuel needs to get healthy and figure out a way to stay that way if he's going to be the franchise guy in Buffalo. His skill set is obvious and the coaching staff can coach in the big leagues. The only thing standing in the way of progress is consistent QB play.

NFC SOUTH

What I said: "Winners: Falcons because their defense is just a tad bit better than the Saints'."

What happened: Crapped my pants on this one. It happens, but look what I said about the Panthers:

"If Cam can act like an adult on a consistent basis then this team can begin to realize it's potential...It's all on Cam, which makes me nervous."

Cam has acted like an adult and this team has responded better than many of us thought. I didn't think it would happen, but I've been told I'm too hard on people. Cam is like nothing this league has ever seen and this team is scary good on defense. I don't know what to make of the Falcons other than their dynamic offensive playmakers weren't healthy this season. I was wrong about the Saints' defense, but not wrong about their limitations. 

The interesting part: This division belongs to Carolina so long as Cam continues to get better and the coaching staff and front office give him weapons. I don't much care about anything else, because the other teams are mostly a known quantity. All eyes on Carolina!

AFC SOUTH

What I said: "Winner: Colts. Surprised?"

What happened: Best call of the year! The Texans were limited at QB and coach as I said and the Colts were not. This division is awful outside of Indianapolis as they are the only team that has a franchise QB.

The interesting part: The Colts' offseason and who the Texans hire as their head coach. I don't care much about the Jags or the Titans because their rosters are really limited and are years away from competing with the Colts. The Texans have an opportunity to not the current division champs run away with the next 3-5 division crowns if they get the right QB and coach to pair with a loaded roster.  This will be the single most important offseason for the league's youngest franchise. 

All in all my predictions weren't too bad if I say so myself. If you like reading my stuff don't be afraid to comment and/or follow this blog. Thanks for reading!

Playoffs!

This is always a bittersweet time in the NFL season as the league bifurcates into the good and the bad. Most of the league will be sitting at home watching the supposed better teams play for a championship. The quality of play in the playoffs is usually better, but this time also signals the impending end of another NFL season. Endings, no matter how exciting or enjoyable, are always a bit sad. On the other hand, the end of the regular season ushers in the season of the GM, a time of year where personnel decisions and speculation increase ten-fold as teams build for the future. I love the GM season and will talk about it a lot over the next half year. For now though, let's talk about the postseason, the teams, and how I like to make it to MetLife Stadium in February.

Playoff Seeding
The NFL has to fix this because the system of seeding is stupid. As it stands now any team that wins its division, regardless of their regular season record, hosts a playoff game. In the AFC this format is not a problem because the records of all playoff teams align with their seeds. In the NFC however the seeding system has created two unearned advantages for the home teams. The 49ers finished the season 12-4, tied for second best record in the NFL, one game behind the 13-3 Seahawks, but will have to go on the road to play the 8-7-1 Packers. Let me say this another way. The 49ers won eight more games than they lost but will have to travel to play a team that won only one more game than they lost. Like the 49ers, the Saints finished one game behind their division rival and reigning champ, but will have to go on the road to play a team with a worse record than them.

Here's the solution. If a team wins their division then they should be guaranteed a playoff spot, that's it. Where a team is seeded once it qualifies for the playoffs should be determined by record alone. In case of teams that have qualified for the playoffs having the same record the tiebreaker should go to any team that is a division champ (regardless of regular season head-to-head outcome with other tied team), and then be decided by head-to-head result if neither team is a division champion. As I said before, the AFC got it right because two out of the three wild card teams with 11-5 records that are hosting playoff games are division champions. The wildcard playoff picture in the NFC should have the 49ers and Saints hosting playoff games, because their records are better than the Packers and Eagles. Come on NFL, get it right for 2014.


Now to step down from my soapbox and talk games. Let's run them down starting with the early Saturday game.

Chiefs @ Colts
Winner: Colts
I'm not tremendously confident with this pick. Come to think of it I don't have a ton of confidence in any of my picks for this round. That's what makes the playoffs great and this year particularly interesting. This game will hinge on how well the Colts stop Jamaal Charles. In their last meeting Charles got loose, but only had 18 touches. Alex Smith was not very effective in this game and Chiefs' defense didn't have an answer for Luck's efficiency. Andrew Luck is the third best QB in the AFC playoffs and is never out of a game. He's got playoff experience and an offense that's well balanced. The overall talent advantage belongs to the Chiefs, but their QB is not the type to make dynamic plays in key spots. The Colts have to run the ball effectively to control this game and keep the home field advantage. If Jamaal Charles gets 20-25 touches the Chiefs will be hard to beat. I like the Colts in a close game, but won't surprised if the Chiefs win by 10+.

Saints @ Eagles
Winner: Saints
The Saints don't play well on the road, but this team is battle tested in the post season. They're angry about their road reputation and they have the most accurate and one of the most prolific QBs to ever play the game. The Eagles are young, innovative, confident, but inconsistent at times though they've only lost 1 out of the last 8 games. A lot of how this game will go depends on what the weather is like this Saturday. If there is any kind of precipitation then the Saints are in trouble. If it's mild then things might be more even. I typically don't like first time playoff coaches and QBs to win, but Chip Kelly might be that good of a coach. Like the early Saturday game this one hinges on a star running back. If Shady McCoy gets loose and touches the ball north of 25 times the Saints will have a tough time keeping up. I think this game is close early on and stays close because both coaches make good half-time adjustments. Saints find a way to win, but only if the weather is good.

Chargers @ Bengals
Winner: Bengals
The Chargers are a hard team to figure out. They win games they should lose and lose games they should win. The Bengals are talented, but limited at QB. This game could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers won, but when in doubt I go with the home team with a better defense, a strong running game, and more dynamic offensive weapons. Philip Rivers is the wild card in this matchup. If he limits the turnovers and gains confidence early then I think the Bengals are done. I like the Chargers' psychology better than the Bengals. The former are tough and never give up. The later team is immature at times, and not particularly resilient in crisis. Keep your eye on Rivers in this matchup. The more comfortable he is the worse it will be for the home team.

49ers @ Packers
Winner: 49ers
I hate that this game is in Lambo, but I've talked enough about why. The Packers have Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers back and after a huge win to make the playoffs are very confident. The Pack are itching to get their revenge on the team that's had their number over the last two years and have an excellent shot at knocking them off. The 49ers are simply a better team than the Packers however. Their team, the 9ers, is built for tough, cold weather games and they have a defense that intimidates. Colin Kaepernick is still a long ways away from being close to Aaron Rodgers. We've seen flashes, but Kaep is still a one-read QB that struggles with consistent mechanics and poise in the pocket. The Packers are going to have to get creative on defense in order to make Kaepernick uncomfortable and without Clay Mathews that's going to be tough. The 49ers need to play to their strength in this game and run the ball A LOT, work off of play action, milk the clock, and get pressure on Rodgers with their front 4. The Packers can run the ball effectively so watch to see if Eddie Lacy gets going. If this turns into a scoring slug fest then I don't like the 49ers' chances because Kaepernick will struggle to make the decisions and throws needed to win the game. San Fran may be a fair weather team, but they play like they're from Anchorage. This is not the game for Harbaugh to get too creative, but don't be surprised if the largely absent from the regular season read-option makes a strong playoff cameo. Niners by 10 after a close first half.


If my predictions are correct then this is what the divisional match ups would be:

Colts @ Broncos: Broncos get the slight edge, but Luck is built for the postseason while Peyton is built to break regular season records.

Bengals @ Pats: Pats win because the Bengals can't overcome this QB mismatch or a well rested opponent.

Saints @ Seahawks: Saints get their asses kicked once again by a team that's simply more physical and more talented than they are.

49ers @ Panthers: Best game of the weekend and really hard to call. The Niners defense figures out a way to neutralize Cam's weapons and continue to run the ball well and pull out a close one.


This is only the beginning folks. Stay tuned for my continued thoughts on the playoffs and the GM season. Enjoy the games!

Week 15 Takeaways

Getting close to the playoffs! Here's what I've been chewing on:

1) The Cowboys: One of the worst losses I've ever seen. Who's fault is it? Romo is certainly culpable, but did you know the Cowboys ran the ball seven times in the second half? The Cowboys' defense gave up 37 points, at home, to a backup QB! Yes, Romo made another bad play late in games, but did you see how he avoided Clay Mathews to make an off balance throw that if it had been two inches more to the right Miles Austin probably scores a TD and puts the game away? This loss is on an incompetent organization and GM that expects their main employee to cover their blunders in management. Jerry Jones doesn't know his team, he doesn't know his personnel, and he doesn't know how to fix it. Romo is not Brees, Manning, or Brady. He's appear to have the level of focus, awareness, or luck to not make big mistakes in key situations. But Romo is closer to those guys than he is any other class of QB that's ever played the game. This team would probably be the worst in the league if it wasn't for their QB; their ownership and management are just that clueless.

2) The Dolphins can play football. I'm completely surprised by how poised and effective Tannehill has played so far in his young career. The Dolphins probably don't win the game if Gronk is healthy and the Pats defense is not good, but I'm still impressed with how well Tannehill played down the stretch. The Dolphins need to improve their roster, but they've found their franchise QB.

3) The Saints suck away from home. I'm not surprised by how well the Rams played because their front seven is as good as any other team in the league. The Saints don't scare anybody outside of the Superdome, especially if you've got a young talent along the defensive line. We forget that this defense, though it's much improved, was one of the worst the league had ever seen last year. On top of that they don't have any receivers on the outside that require you to role coverage to other than Jimmy Graham. The key to stoping the Saints is shutting down their running game and disrupting Brees' timing. Three out of the four teams to beat New Orleans have young, scary defensives that make it difficult for backs and QBs to get going. Seattle is running away with the number one seed and so the Saints will have to go on the road at least once this year. Right now that's looking like a guaranteed L if they travel to the North West.

4) The Panthers and the 49ers kick too many field goals. The former team is limited by the offensive supporting cast. Cam has stepped back from the precipice of Bustville, but the skill players he has to work with are not dynamic play makers. The 49ers' QB is still learning how to play within the pocket and his supporting cast is just now getting healthy. I like these two teams going forward, but they are limited in a way I don't see in Seattle. Field goals won't win championships and unless the Panthers and 49ers pick up their offensive efficiency I don't know that they'll be able to keep up in the postseason.

5) The Chargers and Titans have found their franchise coaches. When a team that knows it's inferior and knows it probably won't make the postseason plays as hard as these two teams did this past week you know that team has quality leadership. I love seeing the early stages of positive change in an organization. Peyton and Luck's teams are superior, but also vulnerable. I'll have my eyes on these teams during the offseason.

I predict the Ravens will win tonights game in Detroit and if that happens I think it's the final nail in the Jim Swartz coffin. He has to win this game to keep up with Chicago and Green Bay. Detroit will commit too many penalties and give up one or big plays in bad spots due to lack of discipline. Harbaugh is a better coach you'll see that tonight. Enjoy!

The team in Washington

Is a hot mess of a franchise. I admit that I was fooled by RGIII's rookie success. It seems everyone was. This story about Shanahan being packed and ready to go at the end of last season is all the evidence we need to know just how bad things are in D.C. Let's break this down by the individuals involved as see where each went wrong.

Dan Snyder: Colin Cowherd is fond of saying that two things make guys stupid, beautiful women and sports. The later certainly applies to Synder. Jerry Jones is uncomfortable with the level of micromanaging Synder is allegedly engaged in. Seven coaches, four playoff appearances, and two playoff wins since he took over as owner 14 years ago. The problem with owners like Synder and Jones, and the late Al Davis, is that they are insane. They keep doing the same thing expecting a different result. It's actually mind boggling to witness how stupid these guys are when it comes to running their teams, especially given the examples of success they have around them. Building a good football team is not rocket science, it's not easy, but the formula is very straight forward.

Synder is too close, too buddy-buddy with RGIII according to recent accounts. The owner and star QB relationship has disrupted the structure of the team and undermined Shanahan's authority. Suddenly all of the press conferences about what's been going on inside the locker room make sense. Snyder has given RGIII an open invitation to the mic and Shanahan clearly doesn't have the clout to reign his QB in. Snyder got a taste of how much the fans loved RGIII so he figured he'd make his star QB even more visible and accessible in 2013. Dumb. Dumb because he doesn't know his team or the game well enough to know that his squad played way over their skis last year. Snyder is a head line chasing owner, not a championship chasing owner. He wants to win the PR battle more than he wants to win on Sundays. Or at least he thinks he can devote equal attention to both and have success. Owners like Dan Snyder remind us that life isn't fair, that incompetence can win over intelligence, and that rich humans are humans first. More on the implications of the Shanahan story in a bit.

Shanahan: Mike Shanahan is the guy who's been dating his partner for a while and after he/she does something truly crazy, he almost leaves, but then decides to stay. If you get to the point to where you seriously plan to leave any relationship then it's best to just do it and not look back. I'm not sure what Shanahan thought he was going to gain by staying in Washington and I'm disappointed that he didn't leave last year. Oh yeah, it would have been bad for him. The media and public would have destroyed him and he probably wouldn't have gotten another coaching job in the NFL. As it stands now though, things aren't that much better and now he has to answer questions about almost quitting last year. There's no coming back from this situation and now the real reason for this cluster&#@, Dan Snyder's incompetence, will be lost in Shanahan's flip flopping. Relationships rarely get less crazy once the crazy comes out. If the crazy is crazy enough to make you pack your things then you're only making it worse by convincing yourself that either you can handle the crazy or that the crazy will go away.

RGIII: He's young and unfortunately has walked into the real world with a delusional football moron holding his hand. RGIII's got to wise up quick or he's going to be out of the league in five years. RGIII has gotten too close to the owner and allowed himself to be alienated from his teammates and coaches. He's bought into his early success too much and allowed other people to control his inner scoreboard. I worry that he may not have a good inner scoreboard because of how poorly he's navigated this year. Griffin needs to drastically change his mode of operation for next year, but here's why RGIII's career is in serious jeopardy...

1) Dan Snyder is the worst owner in football because he is so far incapable of changing his management style in the face of his failure.

2) Snyder has driven away too many coaches to attract any good young talent. Shanahan is done after this year if not before unless Snyder begs him to stay. Shanahan should stay only if Snyder promises to be more like Robert Kraft and less like Al Davis. A young talented head coach would be stupid to work for Snyder unless he changes his ownership style because said coach will never have enough control over his team to win consistently. Snyder will never attract top coaching talent and he's probably too stupid to know that the reason is him.

3) RGIII needs a brilliant young coach and GM to be successful. He simply won't last in this league without a creative and disciplined coach, because RGIII's panic default is to run and he's simply too small to last as a runner in the NFL. This team also needs a GM to build the defense and manage the draft and free agency better. Good luck getting those two important pieces with an owner with a track record like Snyders.

I'm saddened by what I see in Washington because I think RGIII is a good young man and could be good for this league. He won't reach his potential because his boss is an idiot and he's so far too naive to see the consequences of his actions and the actions of others. Guys like Jones and Snyder make money and make the league money, but they are not good for the game of football. If I were a young star player I'd never sign a second contract with either team. The chance to really shine a bright light on ownership incompetence past when Shanahan decided to stay with his delusional, dumb as rocks, crazy-ass boss. Life is not fair, and it's often the young and less empowered that pay the price. RGIII's best year might have been his first.

Week 14!

Okay, it's crunch time now. Four games left in the regular season and a lot on the line for a number of teams. Now is where you really need to pay attention to how teams perform, because it's the momentum teams build in these next final weeks that carries them to a championship. Pretenders don't last during this time of year and contenders, though they may stumble, don't lose stupid. Let's get into the important match ups and highlight the important things to look for.

Colts vs. Bengals
I'm fascinated by this game. Both teams lead their division and both teams are seriously flawed. The Colts have the better QB (and it's not close), but the Bengals have the better overall roster and home field advantage. I don't think either of these teams makes it to the Super Bowl so this will be an important game to gauge the trajectory of each team. The Colts have a brighter future because their QB will probably be in Canton, five years after he retires. The weather is going to be bad so I'll be looking to see how well the Colts assert their running game, manage the weather, and the hostile crowd. As for the Bengals I'll be watching how Andy Dalton handles a big home game. I'll think the Bengals win, but I want to see how much a part of that Dalton is because if this team is ever going to win a championship Dalton has to be the driving force. He'll never be in Luck's universe, but maybe he can be a Trent Dilfer type for a championship Bengals team.

Lions vs. Eagles
Jim Swartz has to win this game to keep ownership's confidence in his job. Traditionally this has been the type of game the Lions lose and I wonder how the team is functioning mentally after a big Thanksgiving game win and with a lot of time off. I'm skeptical of the Lions in this spot because I think they won't take the Eagles seriously enough and I think Chip Kelly is a smarter/better coach than Swartz. The Lions' offense, when the running game isn't rolling, relies too heavily on Megatron, and while I think the Eagles will struggle to stop the all powerful Decepticon in pads I don't have much confidence that they'll be able to keep up with what Kelly, Foles, and McCoy will throw at them. If the Lions get down by 14 I think it's a done deal and it's the beginning of the end for their head coach.

Bills vs. Bucs
I know, neither team has a shot at the postseason, but I'm interested in this game because I think both of these teams will be interesting in 2014. I'm not sold on Schiano, but he's managed to get his guy at the helm at QB and the Bucs are playing with fire. Ultimately I think Glennon is a lot like Dalton and lacks the "it" quality to beat Cam and Brees on a consistent basis. The more interesting team in this matchup is the Bills and E.J. Manuel. We know he's a high character guy, but I want to know just how much of his character is rubbing off on the rest of the team. We'll know his impact by how hard this team plays down the stretch. I think Manuel might be a franchise guy. If he is this team will be a tough out for teams and Manuel will play well.

Cards vs. Rams
Must win game for Cards if they are going to keep pace for a wildcard spot. The Rams are a QB away from being on par with the rest of the division and their defense plays hard. I don't think the Cards make the post season because their o-line is below average and they have virtually no running game. The outcome of this game is a toss-up in my opinion so keep your eye on how the losing team goes down and how they deal with defeat, especially if it's the Cards.

49ers vs. Seahawks
This game means more to the 9ers than the Seahawks, but like some of the other games, I'm more interested in how this game plays out than I am in the final score. The Seahawks think they have the 49ers' number and I'll agree with them if they come out and dominate San Fran on the road. I think this game comes down to the play of Kaepernick. He's looked lost against the Seahawks and will need to play lights out to match Russell Wilson. I think the 49ers win a close one because they want this game more.

Enjoy the games!

Jameis Winston

I said earlier that this young man was the best college QB I've seen since Andrew Luck. That's still true. His skill set is as amazing as they come. I also said that I thought he could be as good as Luck so long as he keeps out of trouble. He hasn't and I no longer think Winston will be a transcendent star unless the allegations against him are completely false. Even if Winston is completely absolved of his alleged crimes one has to wonder how he ended up in a situation like this. The great ones at QB, the truly transcendent talents never have this happen to them. I'm not naive enough to think that the issue has never come up with current and former greats, but as terrible as this is the great QBs never have their transgressions exposed to the public like this. Winston is now in the Brett Favre, Big Ben tier of great; tremendous talent, but life judgement limited. Winston's temper is has been documented before and at the time I read about it I was worried about what that might mean in terms of his self control and self awareness. I'm not sure the two are related in this particular case, but those are two big red flags you don't want to see if you're a GM thinking of drafting this guy.

Winston is very young and young people often make terrible errors in judgement. These allegations definitely will hurt Winston and I hope he and the people around him are smart enough to seek help with an issue that so many young men seem to suffer from; abuse/mistreatment of women. What will be hardest to gage from the outside is how Winston perceives these allegations and the situation he has found himself in. What you hope to see is a person who understands the larger implications of his alleged actions as well as the specific trauma his actions have brought about in both participants' lives. Winston needs to handle his celebrity with discretion, which is virtually impossible for young star QB who's probably being propositioned left and right. Life isn't fair even for those seemingly blessed with prospects of wealth, success, and celebrity. But somehow the great ones manage to handle their off the field business with either class or sufficient secrecy. We know Winston can throw it all over the yard and that he appears to have a unique football mind. What matters most is not football for Jameis Winston, it's how well he manages life. So far, it's a big fail. As an armchair GM my enthusiasm for this young man has dropped by at least 50%.  

Offseason Preview: NFC NORTH

Bears: First things first this team needs to commit to Jay Cutler. They're not going to get another QB of his caliber in time for Tresman to coach up and win games. Next, they need to sure up the offensive line. Cutler needs time to throw and he needs to be protected better. Lastly the Bears have to begin rebuilding their defense starting with the front seven. This past year injuries have decimated their interior defensive front and their linebackers are getting old. Bostic was a good pick and though he may not be the next great Chi'town MLB he'll do for now. Julius Peppers has disappeared and if the Bears are going to compete against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers they need a better pass rush. This team can continue to win games, but they've got to be better at the point of attack.

Lions: This team is a dumpster fire. The lions have to move on from Jim Swartz. This team has real talent at the QB position, but it's clear Stafford is not getting the coaching he needs to develop into a top tier QB. More than anything this team needs a teacher who won't allow players to lose their heads on and off the field. If I were a new GM/head coach the first thing I'd do is trade that psychopath Suh to the highest bidder. Suh is a problem waiting to happen and a huge distraction from week to week. The Lions have earned the reputation as a dirty defense and I think that's in large part to Suh's play and influence on the rest of the team. He's got to go. The Lions also have to get better along the offensive line and at middle linebacker. A dominant character guy at MLB (think Patrick Willis) would be the perfect leadership replacement for Suh on defense. The secondary is a weakness, but that's less of a priority with Ziggy Ansah coming on as an edge rusher. Bottom line this team needs a new direction and new leadership.

Packers: I can't quite figure out why this team struggles at times. Rodgers is great and this offense can be dominant, especially now with Lacey toting the rock. The Pack have to get better at stopping the run and I think that's about the long and short of it. This is the best team in the division because they have the best QB. The Bears are not that far behind so the Pack have to get better across line.

Vikings: If this team gets a dynamic franchise QB then this division will arguably be the second best in the NFL. The Vikes have future HOFer at tailback, a veteran receiver, and an up and coming playmaker at the other receiver position. This defense can play though they're getting a bit long in the tooth, but they've got another year or so before the rebuilding process must begin in earnest. This franchise hasn't had a long term QB since Frank Tarkenton (Favre was just a brief distraction from their QB woes). Given their record the Vikings will be in the QB sweepstakes for 2014. The thing the ownership has to figure out is is there a franchise QB worth drafting in this year's class. Personally I think Teddy Bridgewater is the only candidate for such a position worth taking in the first round. If the Vikings can't get him then they need to keep their current head coach another year.

Post Season Push!

Okay, it's been a couple of weeks since I last posted (out of the country for my day job), but I'm back to lay down some perspective on trends leading into the post season push. Here's my list.

1) The Panthers are starting to make the rest of the NFC nervous. Finally, we are beginning to see what some thought Cam was capable of. Personally, I didn't think we'd see him play like this, but now that he's shown this kind of poise and maturity to go along with his unique skills things will get interesting. Perhaps we've been spoiled with the early successes of young QBs and forgotten that development at this position takes time. I don't think the Panthers have the experience or the offensive personnel to make a deep run in the playoffs, but then again I didn't think I'd ever see Cam play this well.

2) Peyton simply isn't as good as Brady, and it's not close. Manning is a different QB when the conditions/circumstances aren't ideal while Brady is much more consistent, even thriving in subpar conditions. When things are just right Manning is a monster, Brady is a monster 24/7, 365. I don't know how a team would have any confidence in being able to win a big game after the way the Broncos lost last night. This is the kind of loss that sticks with you, the kind of loss that makes you doubt your ability and focus when it matters most. These two teams will likely play in the AFC championship game and if that happens the Pats will have that much more of a mental edge on the Broncos. Peyton is great, but he's no Brady.

3) Stick a fork in the Chiefs, their Super Bowl dreams are done. We are now beginning to see why the 49ers let Alex Smith walk after they discovered what they had in Kaepernick. Kaepernick is going through some growing pains right now, but even with his subpar performance I'd rather have him than Smith. Alex won't lose you the game, but when it's time to go toe-to-toe and make dynamic plays from the pocket he simply hasn't come through. He's flashed such capability (divisional playoff game vs the Saints in 2011), but I wonder if the years of coaching and front office turmoil have made Smith wary of delivering the ball down field consistently. The Chiefs will make the playoffs, but if they don't get a home game and/or their pass rushers back it could be a one and done situation.

4) The NFC West will be the most interesting division to watch. No team in this division is out of it and though the Seahawks have the edge things aren't looking good for them as of late. San Fran's Monday night win was big because it keeps a small distance between them and the Cards. The Rams have to win this coming week to stay in the hunt and they'll have a good shot as they always play the Niners tough. Keep your eyes glued to this division.

5) The Seahawks are not moving in the right direction late in the season. The suspension of Browner is worrisome, but I'm more equally concerned about Cox being waived within 48 hours of signing. It seems Pete Carroll has an institutional problem as his players keep failing substance tests. The fact that the 'Hawks signed and then cut a free agent so quickly tells me they're not managing the fallout from the suspension well. It's not an easy task, but championship teams generally don't look this inept from a personnel standpoint when these situations pop up. We can't forget that Carroll's job was likely saved by Russell Wilson and without him he'd be a three-time NFL head coaching failure. Are we witnessing the beginnings of his demise? Maybe not, but then again...

6) If you're selling Colts stock I'm buying. The Broncos are vulnerable, the Chiefs and Bengals are limited at QB, the Pats are good but not invincible, and whoever winds up at the six seed will have a tough road playoff battle. The Colts may not be ready for the best the NFC has to offer, but if you think because they've had some tough defeats lately that they're not a threat you're crazy. The only QBs better than Luck right now are Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and that's it. You read that right. Andrew Luck is better than Peyton Manning at this point because Manning can't through in cold weather and is mentally more fragile. Give me Luck over Manning 10 out of 10 times. This team will play hard and compete and they're only getting better and learning from their mistakes. They're limited as a team, but their QB may have the fewest number of limits we've ever seen at the position.

7) As I watch the Detroit vs. Packers game I'm reminded of how terrible the Lions are. This team continues to do the little things wrong. Turnovers in key spots, kickoffs out of bounds, dumb penalties, and the list goes on. If Detroit makes the playoffs I'll be surprised and if they win a playoff game before Swartz is fired I'll be shocked. This team in an embarrassment given the amount of talent they have.

Happy Turkey Day everyone! Enjoy the games!

Offseason Preview: NFC WEST

This is one of the most exciting and best divisions in football. Two dynamic young QBs on talented young rosters and two other teams that are a QB and a few other pieces away from being really good. Lastly, every team has a solid head coach that should be with their respective team for the forseeable future.

49ers: The 49ers are loaded like a college student at a free Chipotle promotion. Their needs are few, but they are glaring. Kaepernick will continue to develop, but he needs receivers, dynamic, down field threats that can create matchup problems. Second, the 9ers need to find a replacement for Frank Gore. They may have one in Marcus Latimore, but I have my doubts that lightning has struck twice with a running back on knees with multiple severe injuries. Lastly, the 49ers need to make sure they stay young on both lines. This team wins games because their fat guys beat the crap out of your team's fat guys and that formula will always be successful. No matter the outcome of this season I think the 49ers are significantly better in 2014 barring an injury to Kaepernick.

Cardinals: This defense is tremendously talented from top to bottom and their receivers are dynamic. The Cardinals can't block anyone effectively and need a dynamic QB to lead the offense. Carson Palmer is a great veteran stop gap QB and could help the team win games next year if the o-line can keep him upright. Losing Johnathan Cooper this past preseason was a huge blow, but if the Cardinals continue to build along the offensive line they'll begin to make noise in the league's best division.

Rams: Their top priority needs to be figuring out the QB position. Bradford is lost for the rest of the year and shouldn't be resigned to a franchise QB sized deal. It's not completely Bradford's fault that his career has sputtered, but at this point the Rams can't afford to find out if he can turn things around, not with how successful rookie QBs have been over the last two years. I see this team using one of two strategies this offseason: 1) Draft a mobile franchise calibur QB that can make plays without a strong supporting cast (the Rams don't have one) or 2) Improve the supporting cast, resign Bradford as their starter, and stockpile picks to have a shot at the 2015 class of QBs. The only QB I think that fits into strategy 1 is Teddy Bridgewater. Johnny Manziel might seem to fit, but I don't think he and Jeff Fisher would mix well, plus Manziel would be seriously outmatched against the 49ers and Seahawks' respective defenses. Strategy 2 gives the Rams an opportunity at Jameis Winston in 2015. Very little needs to be done with this defense as it's pretty solid and young. Whichever team, Cards or Rams, gets better first is the team that gets their franchise QB.

Seahawks: The only roster that's in better shape than the 49ers is this team. They'll have some tough salary cap decisions to make in the next two years and because of the cheap talent they've acquired they'll need to spend most of their time deciding who they can let go when the time comes. If Seattle wins a championship, a very likely possibility for the next two years at least, then the personnel decisions they make come 2016 will determine their long term success. A team's success is sustained year after year when they have a good QB and good offensive and defensive lines. If I'm Seattle's GM then I make sure I budget for keeping Russell Wilson and the continual acquisition of a talented youth across both lines. Guys like Sherman and Browner are great, but they won't be worth big contracts because corners simply aren't that valuable to a team, not even shut down corners. Tampa Bay supposedly has one of the top secondaries in the league and haven't been able to win a game. Seattle should keep their business quiet and think/plan very earnestly for the future. If in the coming draft they select big name skill position players (outside of a big/fast receiver) then you'll know they're off track. Like San Fran, Seattle needs to keep things boring in terms of the offseason.

Week 8: Ten Takeaways

1) I underestimated the Colts. Their performance against the Broncos was remarkable. That being said their probability of getting to the Super Bowl has dropped significantly with the loss of Reggie Wayne. A healthy Colts team would be my favorite to win the AFC. They’d likely play Manning in Denver and with the combination of Peyton’s big game shrinkage and the weather I’d give the edge to the more physical team whose QB has better feet. I’ve said that this division belongs to the Colts once Manning and Brady retire. They may have it locked down already.

2) Peyton Manning is limited above the shoulders. That feels tremendously odd to write, but after his latest effort in a big game I can no longer convince myself that he’s in the discussion for the GOAT. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton is  one of the smartest and most capable QBs to ever play the game, but he is clearly not good at one thing that all the other superior QBs are good at, playing their best in big games. I think Peyton is like this because he’s so regimented in how he prepares and how he plays. He can make some of the best in game adjustments that have ever been made, but Peyton stumbles to find that calm focus so he can tap into his tremendous talent when the pressure is on. I think this video sums up Peyton’s mentality in big games. He never overcame this attitude in high-pressure, uncomfortable situations and I don’t think he ever will.

3) If the Chiefs win one game against the Broncos they’ll have a very good chance at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I have very little confidence in Broncos being able to go on the road and beat anyone in the postseason. If the Broncos and Chiefs meet in the AFC title game then Alex Smith has a great shot at playing in the Super Bowl. I would favor both the Patriots and the Colts in a championship game in Kansas City if both teams were healthier. Right now these injury-riddled squads would struggle to stop Jamaal Charles and would have a tough time scoring points. The Ravens and/or the Bengals would prove to be the biggest challenges for the Chiefs, but I’d give the slight edge to the team that’s likely to be playing at home. Do I think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC? Hell no, but the stars are aligning in their favor so don't be surprised if they're playing in New York in February.

4) Lesley Frazier won’t be the Vikings head coach in 2014. Head coaches need a franchise QB if they are going to keep their jobs, just ask Herm Edwards (great coach who never had a healthy or talented enough franchise QB). Frazier gambled with Christian Ponder and lost big. Josh Freeman, though seemingly capable after his first two years in the league, is not in the right environment to succeed. I’ll cover more of what I think the Vikings should do in my ongoing Offseason Preview posts, but suffice it to say I think Frazier’s tenure has run it’s course in Minnesota.

5) Sam Bradford's time as done too. This is unfortunate because I think Bradford was capable of being a franchise QB, but the former St. Louis front office was too inept/unlucky to surround him with the necessary support. I think Bradford’s confidence is shot and the rest of the league's coaches and GMs (current and would-be) would probably rather draft a young QB than try to rehabilitate a broken one. Sam Bradford is Alex Smith with a better arm so maybe he'll have a shot with another team. Then again, if the Rams aren't able to get a potential franchise guy in this year's draft...

6) The Browns' front office is showing some worrisome signs of mismanagement. The Josh Gordon trade rumors have hung around too long without them putting an end to the speculation. I know they’ve said they’re not shopping their best receiver, but I doubt the topic is a complete media fabrication. If these rumors were completely baseless then the Browns should be furious that this story has now caused Gordon to lose some confidence in his tenure with the team. Here’s what the Browns should say if they are entertaining offers for Gordon (which they absolutely should be doing):

“We think Josh is an extremely talented player and we are proud of the way he has matured as a professional. We would love for Josh to continue to play for us as he is one of our best players. That being said, we are in the process of evaluating and building a strong roster that will compete for division and Super Bowl titles year in and year out. As such we have to consider serious offers. It would take a tremendous offer for us to consider trading a player of Josh’s caliber, one that would benefit both Josh and the Browns”.

Here’s what the Browns should say if they’re not entertaining offers for Gordon:

“We think Josh is an extremely talented player and we are proud of the way he has matured as a professional. We consider Josh an essential component of our rebuilding efforts to make this franchise a Super Bowl contender year in and year out. We have received trade offers for Josh’s services, but we have and will continue to turn down these offers. The Browns current and future success absolutely includes Josh Gordon”.

Simple as that, and no matter what they’re considering the Browns need to call Gordon into their office and personally explain their plans so that he doesn’t appear to not know what's going on. Teams can’t have a situation like this if they are truly focused and capable of building a solid franchise. Get it together Browns!

7) The Bears Super Bowl chances are probably done. Too many key defensive losses to a team that’s not yet mentally strong enough to handle this type of attrition. Cutler is too surly to balance out Marshall’s volatility and Forte is too soft-spoken to balance them out. Briggs is injured and probably didn’t develop the requisite leadership skills playing beside Urlacher all those years (pure speculation, but this might provide some insight). Tresmann’s Tony Dungy-like demeanor won’t be as effective because he's not been with the team or won enough games for his team to fully believe in his leadership (if they come through this adversity with a winning record he'll have them for the next three years). I’ll be watching rookie middle linebacker Johnathan Bostic because I think he’s talented enough to be the next great Chicago linebacker. What will be interesting to see is if Bostic can take control of the defense and get the veterans to buy into him as a leader. D.J. Williams’ career as a starter is likely over so this is Bostic’s defense if he wants it. What will he do with it?

8) RGIII is steadily finding his way back to his 2012 form. Adrian Peterson ruined it for Griffin. Few human beings are as physiologically remarkable as AD. RGIII needed more time physiologically and mentally and is essentially playing his 4^th regular season game (the first 3 were ostensibly preseason games). I’m still a selling my Washington stock because I don’t think RGIII will have a long career given his physical dimensions and style of play, but it’s good to see him and the team improving.

9) The Cardinals are a solid o-line away from being scary. Palmer doesn’t have the mobility or the arm talent to compensate for one of the worst lines in the league, but make no mistake this team is loaded at almost every other position. If Bruce Areans can't get a mobile QB in 2014 then he needs to build the o-line and cross his fingers at having a shot at Jameis Winston in 2015.

10) Speaking of Jameis Winston I think he’s as talented a QB as I’ve ever seen in college football. He has a shot at being as good as Luck was in college, maybe better. If that doesn't make the hairs of excitement on the back of your neck stand up then you must be dead. What makes Winston so good is his combination of football smarts, feet, size, and arm talent. They’re all at the top of the charts and he’s just a red-shirt freshman. The most important thing to keep an eye on from now until he declares for the draft his how he handles the spotlight. If he stays mature and out of trouble then I think come 2015 there are only a handful of teams that wouldn’t take Winston if they had the opportunity: New Orleans, San Fran (I think Winston is as good as Kaep now), Seattle, Baltimore, the Giants, Washington (if they came out the same year Winston over RGIII 100 out of 100 times), Dallas, Atlanta, Indy (Luck is the only QB I would take over Winston as a college prospect). Detroit and Pittsburg probably wouldn’t pull the trigger if they had the number one pick, but they’d think about it. If any of these 11 teams has a new coach and/or GM come 2015 then all bets are off. If you’re a new coach or GM and you have a shot at Jameis Winston and he’s proven to be mature and a good leader then you take him no matter what QB you inherit from the previous regime. Nick Saban heavily recruited Winston so if he does come back to the NFL in 2015...I can’t wait to see this young man develop and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that FSU and Bama stay undefeated. What a game that will be!

Offseason Preview: NFC SOUTH

Let's keep my way too early to speculate offseason team guide going with the NFC South.

Panthers: Gut the coaching staff and front office. Trading Cam for draft picks is a possibility, but there's no one in this upcoming draft that's a better physical prospect than Newton so I would keep him and try to rebuild a team around him. Presumably a new coaching staff would them gut the offense. Stewart needs to go and this team needs to get better on the o-line and on the outside. The defense is solid so now need to tinker their. The most important thing for the Panthers is to get the right coach for Cam. Someone authoritative, but not too out of touch with young pop-culture. Saban is NOT the guy this job. Carolina needs someone more like David Shaw from Stanford. I don't think he leaves, but that's who they should be shooting for.

Bucs: Schiano probably has another year, but I'd be more proactive and move on. It appears relatively clear that he's losing the players and this roster is too young and talented to wallow for another year. It all comes down to the QB so either Glennon needs to dramatically improve or the Bucs need to get their hands on a dynamic QB who's more emotionally compatible with the coaching staff. This team could be next year's Chiefs if they get their leadership in order.

Falcons: As I said in several earlier posts, the Falcons don't have an effective defense, which is why they keep losing games they should win. With the way things are going in ATL the Falcons might just be in a position to draft South Carolina star Jadeveon Clowney. That would be solid pick, but the falcons also need a more stout d-line so that Sean Witherspoon (when healthy) can make plays. On offense the Falcons have to improve their run blocking so that they can take some pressure off their defense. This team must make substantive moves to sure up the weakness they've avoided addressing for years. If they do them they'll finally be a legitimate contender.

Saints: They won't have to do a lot this offseason. This team has great leadership, a nice mix of young and veteran talent, and a QB that will still be at the top of his game in three years. Colston isn't getting any younger and I'd be sure I'd have a dependable receiver to compliment and eventually replace him sooner rather than later. Maybe Nick Toon and Kenny Stills are those guys, but I have my doubts they can fill Colston's role.

Offseason Preview: NFC EAST

I know it's way too early for this but I can't help myself. In my fantasies of being an NFL GM I'm already thinking earnestly about what my imaginary team will need to do for this coming offseason. Here are some general thoughts on what each team should probably focus on for the upcoming season starting with the NFC East. I'll be back throughout the season with each division.

Cowboys: Their biggest priority should be improving the lines. They're not going to fire the coaching staff because they're probably going win the division going away. Romo needs more time to throw and the defense needs to get younger on the front. Ultimately I don't think they gain enough ground on the better teams in the conference and Jerry Jones continues to delude himself to the detriment of winning a championship.

Washington: First they need to change their team name. Second, they need to improve the offensive line and find legit skill position talent. Garcon and Morris are B players not As and that's what Washington needs. Lastly, RGIII needs to have as quiet an offseason as Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck.

Giants: Defense, defense, and more defense. It needs to be overhauled and the offensive line needs to get better. The coaching staff and front office are here to stay and that's good. This team knows who they are and how they need to win. Their defense has eroded and their offensive line is bad. They can get those things fixed pretty quickly and probably will come this offseason.

Eagles: This team is all about finding the right QB. Vick is banged up again and though Foles played well I don't imagine he's they guy Chip Kelly ultimately envisions running his team. The defense should improve after what looks to be a tough year. The eagles also need more dynamic receivers. A healthy Jeremy Maclin should be a shot in the arm, but the Eagles don't have a durable receiving threat on the roster and that's a problem.

Week 5 Review: Ten Take Aways

Here's a quick list of observations from Week 5.

1) Matt Schaub is on the precipice of ending his career. I don't envy trying to manage this situation as a coach. It's hard to watch and I'm not sure how one would navigate this situation. The Texans probably can't win a championship with Schaub, but where do you go from here? Andre Johnson is mostly spent and Foster has only two or three more years of top notch play. Really tough situation in Houston.

2) The 49ers are going to be what we expected at the beginning of the season by the end of the season. Don't let the score in the Texans game fool you, this team is limited right now. What's really turned things around is the fact that Harbaugh is calling more running plays. Kaepernick doesn't have the weapons to develop his passing skills and that's okay. The 49ers need to focus on getting healthy, running the ball well, and playing good defense. They'll be in the mix at the end of the season.

3) Tony Romo is Brett Favre. The Cowboys' lack of late game success is more a product of a team that doesn't function well in crisis. Romo is exceptional IF he has a supporting cast that is more disciplined than he is. Romo makes those type of plays late in games because he knows he has to overcome a team that hasn't supported him in the past. Romo is not Brees, Brady, Rodgers, or Manning. He's just not that good, but he is better than almost every other QB. Romo is the scapegoat that prevents fans from demanding the management changes that will fix the real issue.

4) Luck and Wilson should be an entertaining battle for years to come. What a fantastic game! The Colts are only going to get better and if the Seahawks manage their roster well in the coming years these two teams should provide some excitement when they face off.

5) Josh Freeman is not the answer in Minnesota. He's certainly better than Ponder and has a higher ceiling than Cassel, but I doubt if he becomes their franchise QB. Coaches rarely keep their job with QBs they didn't draft (the most recent exception is Payton and Brees). Lesley Frazier is probably not going to keep his job for more than two years and when that happens the team will draft another QB. Freeman has shown that he's got some work to do on his soft skills as well as his quarterbacking skills. Some of that is coaching, but the best in the league don't precipitate situations like what happened in Tampa. Either a QB is too good an too well liked to get booted or he's not ready for the situation, no matter how problematic the head coaches methods are.

6) New Orleans is the most capable challenger to Seattle. If it comes down to those two teams in the NFC championship game the winner will likely be the home team. The scariest thing about the Saints is that they're playing very good defense. That offense is problematic enough without a defense that can hold opponents to less than 25. Watch out for the Saints. The last time they went 5-0 they won it all. What a rematch that would be with Peyton!

7) The Broncos may not lose a game to an AFC team. Make no mistake, if starting middle linebacker Wesley Woodyard is out for an extended period of time then the Broncos are not nearly as formidable on defense, but does that really matter? Manning's offense can't be stopped and running back Knowshon Moreno is looking like the first round pick we thought he'd be. This team is the biggest offensive juggernaut since Brady's 18-1 team.

8) The Chiefs aren't as good as their record, but that may not matter. Right now there are only three games on the Chiefs' schedule where they won't be favored, two against Denver and one against the Colts. They are a legitimate threat to get home field throughout the playoffs because their opponents are collectively that poor. The only quality team they've faced so far has been the Cowboys and that game was very close. The Chiefs can be beat, but not by teams that don't play smart and certainly not by teams that are significantly less talented. The Chiefs are for real because their path to the playoffs is one of the easiest.

9) Ryan Tannehill is a franchise QB. There. I said it. The third and long throw late in the game to put his team in position to win convinced me. His supporting cast is not doing him any favors and the front office should be face palming themselves for massively overpaying for Wallace. I hope the Dolphins' brass gets their act together because by now it should be clear to them that they are hindering the development of their franchise guy. I wasn't smart enough to see what they saw in Tannehill, though it was a good pick. The front office needs to get out of its own way and make sure their franchise guy has a clearer (and cheaper) path to success.

10) Speaking of screwing things up, Cam Newton and this coaching staff/front office need a divorce. I go back and forth on who's more to blame, but assigning blame matters less right now than fixing the issue. Cam has been woefully immature, but this coaching staff and front office have been woefully inept at putting together a good team. Newton is ultra talented, but he needs better guidance to reach his potential. How the Panthers handle the offseason will depend on who they bring in to replace Rivera and his staff. If they keep Cam then they'd better get serious leadership and talent to run the team. If they get rid of Cam they should be able to get some serious compensation. I would clean house and keep Cam only if I could find the right coach to work with him. What's Warren Moon's email?

Enjoy the game tonight. Atlanta should win, but I think the game is close for at least the first half. Geno Smith may not be a franchise guy, but he certainly plays like he wants to be. If the Falcons can't run the ball or pressure Geno then this is going to be a close game.

Week 4: What to Watch For

Lots of things to get to this week. We are now entering the part of the season where we can put our conceptions of teams to work. Now is when the pretenders and contenders begin to assert themselves. Let's start with what we learned from the 49ers and move on to the rest of the league

49ers: On the positive side they got back to what they do best. On the not so positive side they haven't fixed their most glaring need, a lack of a passing game. I was way over my skis with Kaepernick. He's good, but he's not on Luck or even Wilson's level. Those guys deliver without a strong supporting cast where as Kaep, at least for right now, he needs help. I expect the niners to be better by seasons end, but by then Seattle may have run away with this division. 2013 will be a down year for my favorite team, 2014 should be another story.

Seahawks on the road: In my mind this game means more to only one team because only one of these teams is a legit championship contender. Seattle can strike more fear into the hearts of the league with a big win here and if Houston loses I thin more people will begin to realize what a fraud they are. This will be a fascinating game to watch. Keep an eye on how the rookie Hopkins plays against Seattle's secondary. If this young man is the talent we think he is he will show you something today.

The Bucs and Josh Freeman: This team is a mess! I mean a Lane Kiffin, Bobby Patrino type of mess. Rumors that the coach has lost the locker room, benching your starting QB, star veteran pick-up has beef with the head guy, this ship is sinking. Josh Freeman has had a puzzling career. He's not a transcendent talent, but his regression seems to partially be due to who's been brought in to help him develop. Unfortunately, I think his career as a starter is done. As for Schiano, he needs to find a franchise QB by this time next year or he's done. Coaches are tied to their QBs. Coaches that get fired never find the franchise guy, coaches that stick around always have "their guy" at the position. The Schiano clock starts now.

Lions vs. Bears: Second most fascinating game to watch this week. I don't think we'll learn a hole lot about either team no matter the outcome, this will just be a fun game to watch. Like LSU vs. Georgia this past weekend, we both know these teams are good and will play each other hard. Both teams should be in the mix for a playoff spot towards the end of the season. I give Chicago the edge here because of the head coaching. Tresmann is a grown-up and Schwartz is a hot head. This game should be fairly close throughout and I think the first year head coach will make the fewest critical mistakes.

Must win teams: These teams have got to get a win if they are going to salvage their season.
Giants
Steelers
Washington
Philly's not on this list because the rest of the division is so bad and they have a win. Dallas is running away with things, but if the 'Boys lose today it keeps the door open. As for the three teams on this list a win today doesn't mean they make it to the post season, it means they put themselves in a position to not feel completely crapping about 2013. I don't think any of the coaches find their jobs in jeopardy at seasons end, but the cushion gets that much thinner. The Giants have the toughest task this week, but they've got a history of rising to the occasion when the chips are down. I'll be surprised if all three teams lose.

London: These games are stupid. I get that the NFL has international ambitions and as a business they should be trying to expand their brand. Logistically however, these games are a nightmare for players and they're not particularly exciting to for fans. Talk of a franchise in London is the only thing more logistically ludicrous than games in London. If the Brits and Europe are clamoring for more NFL then they can tune in to games over here or do what we did with the MLS and start their own league.

Trent Richardson: Ahmad Bradshaw's out and Richardson has had a full week with his new team. The Jags play hard so I'm not expecting Richardson to have a monster game, but this should be the week we see how the Colts plan to use the 3rd overall pick for 2011's draft. More so than his rushing yards keep an eye on the number of touches he gets and don't be surprise if he out gains all other skill positions. Someone in Houston should be watching this game very closely.

Troubled receivers on the trading block: Josh Gordon and Kenny Britt are extremely talented players that may have worn out their welcomes. Both players are the best their respective offenses have to offer, but both players are knuckleheads. Britt is midway through a downward spiral where as Gordon, for the time being, is saying all the right things. I think both guys are playing on different teams come 2014, this is almost guaranteed in Britt's case. To me only Gordon is worth the trouble. Britt talks to much and doesn't appear to understand how his twitter rants are hurting his trade/free agent value. Gordon is one positive drug test away from a season long ban so I wouldn't give a lot of him, but if I'm good team with a good locker room I'm very intrigued by the Cleveland Brown star. The 49ers are a good fit for Gordon because they need a big play guy on the outside, they have a ton of picks they could offer Cleveland, and they have a good locker room and leadership. Gordon would give the 49ers a chance if they had to play in Seattle late in the year and if Crabtree comes back healthy along with Manningham and Boldin in the slot this team would be a Super Bowl favorite once again.

Enjoy the games this week!

Week 3: What we learned, what we know

Another interesting week and a lot to cover so let's get started.

Trent Richardson: Love the trade for both sides. Trent and the Colts are the more immediate winners in this situation as the former Alabama star goes to a better run organization than his former team and the Colts continue to build a team for eventual AFC dominance. This isn't a close to a loss for the Browns as they stockpile picks aggressively execute their vision for the team. This trade has the potential to turn into a colossal bust for Cleveland if they don't draft well, but I like the fact that they're putting themselves in position to acquire their biggest need, a franchise QB.

Colts vs. 49ers: This was a surprise. Not so much that Luck and company played well, but that the 49ers played so poorly. It's clear that the 49ers' receiving corps is extremely limited. They simply cannot get open consistently. Moreover, it seems through the first few weeks that defenses have figured out a way to slow down the read-option. What bothers me most about this game is that for the second straight week the 49ers don't seem to be making effective adjustments on offense to counter how teams are playing them. I'm not sure why Frank Gore, who averaged 7.3 yards a carry, ended up with only 11 carries in the game. The rushing attack was effective in the first quarter and then the 9ers seemed to abandon it. We know this team, the 49ers, has the ability to play better so it seems their problems are more psychological than physical. It will be interesting to see how this team responds to the self inflicted wounds and offensive limitations.

Aldon Smith: Youth, money, and fame ruin many a career. It's encouraging, giving all the turmoil Smith has caused this season that he's taking steps to get himself better. One of the things I really appreciate about Ray Lewis as commentator is his perspective on how mental health is so important and such a neglected topic for professional athletes. We don't talk or do enough as a society to ensure young people have good mental health and health coping mechanisms and Smith is just another manifestation of that failure.

Von Miller: Colin Cowherd is fond of saying "Own your baggage". Von Miller didn't take this advice and instead took the Brian Braun approach and denied his wrong doing. I'm a bit shocked by how poorly he's reported to have handled his league violations and wonder if his career can recover. As a GM I'd be incredibly reluctant to resign Miller to another contract simply because I can't trust him to stay clean or own up to his faults. This is such a tough situation because Miller is so talented that letting him go can't be a decision you take lightly.

Dolphins vs Falcons: This game highlights the limitations the Falcons have as a Super Bowl contender, but we learned something fundamentally new from this game; the Dolphins can really compete. More than that we're beginning to see Ryan Tannehill grow into a franchise QB. I'm late to the Tannehill party, but now I'm pretty convinced the Dolphins won't have to worry about the QB position for the next few years, they've found their guy. Right now the Dolphins are a potential threat. The next five games are really tough and will tell us a lot about how good this team can be. Keep your eye on October 27th when the Fins go to New England to take on Brady. A win there would be quite huge.

Geno Smith: I was wrong about Smith, sort of. I did not expect him to play this well ever, and I admittedly don't care for his demeanor in the same way I don't care for Jay Cutler's demeanor. I still think he's a limited QB, but he can clearly play the game. The Jets are managing their new QB well by giving him plenty of run support and challenging him to throw down field. The Jets are far more interesting than I thought they'd be, which, if I'm honest with myself, pisses me off a bit.

Packers vs. Bengals: Let's not get too carried away about this win for Cincy. If Johnathan Franklin holds onto the football then the Pack almost certainly win this game. It's clear that the Packers, in order to be successful, need a dependable running game. Starks seems to be too injury prone to be the guy and the two rookies are going to have their growing pains. The Packers will likely turn things around and be just fine. As for the Bengals, once again Dalton's 300+ yard passing drought continues. This team can play with anybody, but because of their QB they're not to win every game they're in. If a team limits their mistakes and challenges Dalton to throw to win the game they'll be just fine.

Washington vs. Detroit: It should be clear by now that Washington simply isn't as talented a roster as last year's record suggest they were. Alfred Morris is a good not great running back, the receiving corps is not particularly dynamic, and the defense is a bit old and undisciplined. On the positive side RGIII is showing that he can through the ball from the pocket relatively effectively (300+ yards per game at 63%). What we're seeing from him is more of what I expected from him last year. Washington's hopes for a playoff run are in jeopardy, but that's okay because like RGIII's knee injury this setback will force the organization to address their fundamental flaws. The Lions are what they are. They should have won this game more comfortably, but they didn't. They'll get exposed against the better teams in the NFC.

Bears vs. Steelers: Tresmann is clearly moving this team in the right direction, particularly offensively. The biggest difference is Cutler's development and ability to make quick throws. This team is almost as scary as the Broncos when it comes to their pass catchers and if Cutler can continue to stay upright then the Bears are going to cause teams some problems. The defense is playing well and though they're not as dominant as they used to be they're making plays and are far from a liability. The Steelers are in trouble. I think making a coaching change would be a mistake, but I think their 0-3 start won't help the strained relationship between some of the offensive players and the OC Todd Halely. This season may be out of reach, but the Steelers still have a good roster that can be much improved if they make their usual smart personnel moves in the offseason.

Texans vs. Ravens: Say it out loud, "The Texans were only able to score 9 points against a Ravens defense missing the majority of their starters from last year including two HOFers, one of which is now on Texan gave up 30 points to a Ravens offense missing the majority of their offensive skill players". It's hard to watch true pros like Andre Johnson suffer from the incompetence of upper management. Hopefully others will learn from his experience and become more active in the decisions they make on who they're employed by. Boy the Ravens reload well!

Panthers vs. Giants: The Panthers have finally hit on their winning formula. Let Cam's passing develop from an effective running game. This gives the talented defense time to rest and gives the opposing defense another wrinkle to be concerned with. The Giants are an advance case of the Niners and Steelers. They've got obvious personnel limitations and seem to be suffering from some mental challenges as a team. If any team can turn things around it's this one, but this loss was about as ugly as it gets. If the players bail on the coaching staff it'll be a long and painful season.

Seahawks: Every team in the NFC should root against Seattle because if they get home field it's all over. The Seahawks continue to just steamroll opponents at home and while their road record is not stellar no other squad has looked this dominant thus far. The next five games include four on the road so we'll see how things progress. If Seattle is 6-2 or better through 8 they'll likely finish no worse than 11-5.

Broncos vs. Raiders: Duh!

I'll be back with more news and thoughts before Thursday's games!

Week 2

What an exciting week! Lots of close games and now we know just a little bit more about what we can expect during the season. Let's revisit my Week 2: What to Watch For list and then move on to other thoughts.

1) The Cowboys: I said this game would tell us if things have truly changed in Big D as it would likely come down to a final drive Romo and the crew would need in order to win. Turns out I was right. The Cowboys didn't pull out the victory and because of that I think things haven't changed that much in Dallas. Dez Bryant was spectacular in the first half and then disappeared once the Chiefs' D made adjustments. I said KC was a tough place to play and that the difference b/w a win and a loss for Dallas would be leadership. Championship teams usually win games like that and though the Cowboys may win a lot of games this year we've seen them come up short like this all too often. Told you so...

2) Zona vs. Detroit. Peterson is really good. Megatron got loose, but that doesn't negate his (Peterson's) talent. It's becoming increasingly hard to play corner in this league so my hat goes off to Peterson and the way he stayed with Megatron for most of the game. I still think he's a bit overrated as he failed to tackle Johnson on a slant that resulted in a long TD. Arizona's line held up against a Lions' d-line that was curiously ineffective. Mendenhall ran for 66 and a touch and Palmer was upright for most of the game. Arizona can play with anyone and if you have any Detroit stock left, sell it. No offensive points in the second half means the coaching staff couldn't/didn't make enough or any good adjustments. There are ways good teams lose games and this is not one of them. The Lions are too talented and Swartz has been with this team too long to go down like this.

3) RGIII. He's still rusty. I said this would be a bad spot for Washington and it was. 0-2 is not a good start, but it's not the end of the world. Washington and RGIII are not going to be as dynamic as they were last year, especially given the fact that RGIII is coming off of major knee surgery. My worry is that he gets frustrated and tries to make more plays with his feet. If RGIII is going to last in this league he's going to have to become a better passer from the pocket and he's probably the least developed of the young QBs in that regard. Be patient Washington fans. RGIII is very good, but he's going to need some time to build a solid foundation so he can play for a decade.

4) The Manning Bowl. I thought this game wouldn't be that interesting and it wasn't. The Giants have been 0-2 before and had a successful season. Right now they can't run the ball effectively, but we knew that coming in. The Broncos showed once again that they're a top 5 team in the league, but again, we knew that coming in. Both teams will be competitive throughout the year, blah, blah, blah.

5) 49ers vs. Seahawks. I thought this was going to be a good game. I was wrong. This was an ass kicking. And though it was tough to watch my favorite team get handled I learned a few things from this 4 quarters of domination:

a) If Seattle gets home field throughout the playoffs they'll be nearly impossible to beat. No team wants to go play in this stadium. It's just that intimidating.

b) 49ers still commit a worrisome number of boneheaded penalties.

c) Kaepernick is still learning how to be a consistently effective QB; especially in the redzone and under pressure. One thing Wilson does much better than Kaep is throw under duress and on the move.

d) The 49ers really miss Crabtree. Boldin is great receiver, but he's not fast and that really hurt the 9ers' passing game Sunday night. Kaep struggled partially because his guys couldn't get open and if anyone is going to beat Seattle they're going to need strong receivers that can separate from those big corners. Nightmare game!

Okay, now on to other thoughts about week 2

Cam Newton: whatever it is that E.J. Manuel has that allowed him to win this game Cam doesn't appear to have it. Success is often apparent from day one. Success, not glory or greatness, but success. I'm not saying Manuel will be great, nor am I saying Cam is a complete flop, but you can't look at Cam's body of work to date and then look at E.J.'s early success and feel too much better about the former player's trajectory than the later. The panthers had three field goals in the fourth quarter and though Cam led his team to a lead after the game was tied he still was unable to score a TD when it mattered most. To me that speaks to leadership, poise, preparation, and mental talent. Cam doesn't have a lot of offensive help, but neither does Luck. One of those guys publicly states he wants to be an icon before taking his first NFL snap and the other just goes out and plays like one. When Newton fails to achieve his ultimate goals it won't all be his fault. He's just another in a line of incredible talents that come up short because they weren't afforded the tools, time, and mentorship to realize their full potential. It's a come story across many professions and everyone's a loser in these scenarios.

Houston Texans: By now it should be apparent that this team ain't it. Say it out loud (again), the Texans, at home, ahead by 6 going into the fourth quarter give up two touchdowns to the Titans and need overtime to win. The Texans are 2-0 and have managed to barely squeak out games against teams they should have beat more comfortably. This game says more about the Titans than it does the Texans because we should know by now the later team isn't for real. I'm not sure how the Titans have been able to stay in some of these games, but it appears they may be building some important momentum for the coming years, if they can find the right QB.

Pitt vs. The Natti: The Steelers need better players on offense and Andy Dalton is limited. First, the later. It's hard to watch a QB miss as many open receivers as Dalton did and think, "Yeah, that's a franchise QB". Unfortunately, I think the Bengals are trapped on a shallow peak with Dalton as their guy. He's obviously limited and if he had played in an earlier era he would be more than adequate to win a championship because defenses would be better able to directly control the outcome of games. The last teams that fits this mold are the championship Buccaneers and 2002 Ravens. Until the Bengals try and fail to win it all with Dalton they're not going to be able to make a change. This is the same problem the Texans have albeit the Texans are 14-16 more games away from realizing their limitations and being justified in making a change at QB. Maybe the Texans' failure to win a ring this year will help the Bengals realize they need to pull a Seattle and find a real franchise QB in later rounds.

Now The Steelers. It's always worrisome when a team has a glaring need for multiple seasons and doesn't address it. The Steelers acquired a fantastic center but failed to build a solid supporting cast. The problem now is they have no healthy and/or dominant skill position talent and their offensive line can't pick up the slack. Big Ben doesn't have the extra time to wait for Sanders and Brown to get open and the line can't create big enough holes for Redman and Dwyer to run through. It's frankly a bit shocking to see an organization so well run fail to maintain such an important component of success. They'll recover quickly though.

Okay, on to week three!